H-STAR HUMAN SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGIES ADVANCED RESEARCH INSTITUTE EXPLORING SYNERGY WITH INDUSTRY EXPLORING SYNERGY WITH INDUSTRY Media X X @ Stanford University @ Stanford University Media Academic / Industry Partnerships Academic / Industry Partnerships about People and Information Technology about People and Information Technology Chuck House Stanford University Media X Exec Director Charles.h.house@stanford.edu
H-STAR HUMAN SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGIES ADVANCED RESEARCH INSTITUTE RESEARCH FOCUS Research on people and technology — how people use technology, how to better design technology to make it more usable, how technology affects people’s lives , and the innovative use of technologies in art, education, entertainment, communication, commerce, business, security, research, and other walks of life. @ STANFORD UNI VERSI TY Media X links Stanford’s research community with issues facing key industry Affiliates at this intersection by surfacing issues, organizing Focus forums, soliciting research proposals, and funding projects
currently completing work on The HP Phenomenon , a strategic business history of Hewlett-Packard 1939-2008 (Stanford Univ Press, 2009). Electronics Award of Achievement, ‘77; Computer Design Hall of Fame, ‘84; The HP Phenomenon: IDSA Gold Medals (MOTIF, VUE), ‘89, ‘90; Innovation and Business Transformation IEEE Fellow (Logic Analysis), ‘90; EE Times Historic Contributor Award, ‘97; IEEE 3 rd Millennium Achievement ‘00. Electronic Design’s 2002 Hall of Fame CNN #7 / Top 25 for the past 25 yrs – [Mobile Computing (HP35, Palm)]. Hewlett-Packard Award of Defiance, ‘82 Intrapreneuring Honor Roll, ‘85 ASME International Leadership Award, ’ ’86 86 ASME International Leadership Award, Forbes Turn-around of the Year, ’92 (IFMX) Charles H. House Raymond L. Price In 1988, HP established the “ “Chuck House Productivity award Chuck House Productivity award In 1988, HP established the Stanford University Press Computer Museum in 1997 � 1 of 200 “Wizards of Computing” . DRAFT ONLY September 11, 2008
Why HP? No book about its (extensive) history exists No book about its (extensive) history exists � IBM, Intel, Microsoft, DEC collectively have ~ 45 books � Apple, Sun, Oracle, Cisco, GE, WalMart … are covered Arguably the most consistently innovative company in Arguably the most consistently innovative company in world history world history Today the largest WW high- -tech company tech company Today the largest WW high The fastest growing NYSE company over the last four The fastest growing NYSE company over the last four decades of the 20 th th century decades of the 20 century The lessons are counter- -intuitive intuitive The lessons are counter Authors ∑ ∑ 40 years at HP (Chuck House/Ray Price) Authors 40 years at HP (Chuck House/Ray Price) Professional training in Organizational Behavior and History of Science Professional training in Organizational Behavior and History of Science , as well as Science, , as well as Science, Technology, & Biz Strategy Technology, & Biz Strategy
HP “morphed” six times � Radio repair equipment � Microwave design and support equipment � Scientific instrumentation � Analytical Chemistry � Medicine � Temperature / Astronomy / “Global Warming tools” � Voltmeters � Computing (Scientific) � Scientific Computing � Business Calculators � Semiconductors for HP uwave � “inks” � Peripherals � Computing Machines (HP/PA, PCs)
The 3 rd The 3 rd Transformation – Transformation – Electrical Electrical Eng Eng’ ’g g Test � Test � Scientific Systems Scientific Systems 100 100% 1976 1968 119 115 12 80 80 HP Journal articles 1971-1975 60 60 Time Domain Scientific Computing 40 40 A / V TD 20 20 Med Med Chem Chem Record Record 0 0 Electrical Scient Biz EE Test Scientific Periph Other Eng’g Test Test Sys Systems EVENT: DVM DVM’ ’s s did 6 readings/second did 6 readings/second EVENT: Voltmeter readings were scientific, not integers Voltmeter readings were scientific, not integers
Strange things . . . � Packard resisted every “morph” � Hewlett supported TWO Leadership from “the Bottom” and “the Market” � 9 larger DVM companies, none into Computing � 8 larger semiconductor players, none into I nks � 25 larger computer companies in 1980, none into peripherals Visionary Transformations � Takes THREE TIMES to succeed Perseverance (LaserJet or computers) � Goal is to become #1 (even if it is Xerox or IBM), always believing that it takes 25 years BIG GOAL
“Paradigm Shift” vs. “Structural Change” Define Terms Paradigm -- a “ Point of View ”, a “ Way of Life ” a filtered Lens for viewing “reality” “Paradigm Shift” -- a CHANGE of OUTLOOK a new set of opportunities, a new view of “data” and “reality”, due to a new interpretation of “facts” “Structural Change” -- a CHANGE of FACTS a new set of opportunities due to an underlying change in capability
Paradigm Shifts compared to Structural Changes Paradigm Shifts are . . . Market-driven and Cultural Structural Changes are . . . Engineering-driven and Technical
The Transportation Revolution Spacecraft 10000 Structural Change Structural Change Jet 1000 Airplane Car Car 100 RR Km/h Ship Coach Bicycle 10 Ride Walk Paradigm Shift Paradigm Shift 1 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
The Technology Revolution Own a Car 100 Phone USA 30 Flown on a Jet 10 % of people 3 China 1 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Anticipating Structural Change -- The Adoption Cycle Any technology that becomes Pervasive has moved through three distinct prior developmental phases . . . Rarity Exotic Priesthood Rarity = “one in a million” = 1 item per 1,000,000 people Exotic = one hundred times more prevalent than Rarity (1 item per 10,000 people) Priesthood = a hundred times more available than Exotic (1 item per 100 people) Pervasive = “available” to virtually every person Pervasive technologies are more noticeable for their absence than their presence (e.g. “no phones, no TV”)
Example of Paradigm Shift w.o. Structural Change Cars for the masses Germany invented the car -- 1883 based Sales upon # of chauffeurs England licensed the car -- 1893 based Sales upon # of sporting enthusiasts Henry Ford re-defined the CAR PARADIGM in 1909, in his 9th redesign at his 3rd company, “Cheap Transportation to replace the Horse”
Developing Some Principles for Structural Change Anticipation Seek 10 n changes in technology power Seek 10 n changes in installed base Seek “What If . . .” scenarios Understand the dangers of “AND IF . . .” scenarios
The Stanford “experience” Varian � “Bent” of the school is Hewlett-Packard “entrepreneurial” � 2,454 companies have spawned from the campus Alza � 57 Industrial Affiliate programs exist today � industry is tied inextricably with the campus SUN Microsys research and faculty and students � “Tech transfer” between university and Genentech industry is often (usually) the goal � compared with many universities, there is significant effort to solicit questions and Cisco problems and issues from Industry to inform and guide research interests. Yahoo � “Many” faculty have been or currently are entrepreneurs Google � many more entrepreneurs in the Valley and elsewhere were Stanford YouTube students/faculty
The Innovation Process The Role of Research, Development, and Application Distinguishing Invention, Innovation, and Diffusion … and Incremental, Breakthrough, and Disruptive Innovation Requirements (c.f. Judy Estrin, Closing the Innovation Gap): Questioning Risk Openness Patience Trust Issues – Lab Gap, Short-sightedness, Math/Science skills … and Interdisciplinary Research
Innovation Dynamics, 1997 - 2006 Bangalore, India High Cluster size 2 M o m e n t u m High Low Versatility Low McKinsey for WEF Innovation 100
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Waves of Innovation in “Silicon Valley” Facebook YouTube Yahoo Google ‘07 ‘57 Cisco Oracle Genentech Apple Intel Sun Lockheed SGI Sylvania XeroxPARC SRI Shockley
Waves of Innovation in “Silicon Valley” HARVARD RADIO US Forestry � � Radio Radio US Forestry RESEARCH LAB for NDRC HP US Navy � Ship Varian Assoc -to-shore Terman ‘57 ‘07 Varian Brothers HEWLETT goes to Japan for K T Compton Farnsworth HEWLETT is ARMY liaison to OSRD Fed Telegraph MIT / Harvard ~ two towns & Radio leaders > 40,000 “delist” betweenSF& DeForest Stanford Kansas City Engineering
The Valley of Heart’s Desire � “The Garage” $ M R&D from OSRD 140 $450 Million total 1941-1945 120 100 80 60 40 20 $50 K 0 MIT CIT H P SU
The ‘Unwritten’ Stories in “Silicon Valley” Facebook YouTube Microwave Commun & Satellite Dishes Yahoo Google ‘07 ‘57 Cisco Laser Technology Oracle Genentech Apple Intel Storage Technologies Sun Lockheed SGI Sylvania XeroxPARC Printing Technologies SRI Shockley
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