Exploring Complex Adaptive Systems Dr Niki Jobson, Dstl, UK Dr Anne ‐ Marie Grisogono, DSTO, Australia TTCP Joint Systems and Analysis Group, AG 14
Complex operational environment From The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme 2007 – 2036 , Third Edition From The Comprehensive Approach, Joint Discussion Note 4/05 Actions have Simple cause– The ‘rules’ keep Coherent behaviour, unintended effect models fail changing uncertain of causes consequences
New problems require new approaches Design and Understand management fundamental organisational principles for CAS processes in CAS sciences biological cognitive sciences sciences Complex Systems information evolutionary economics sciences Science physical maths & sciences computing social sciences Causality and Methodologies, influenceability in guidelines, tools CAS and techniques
Ansgar Walker, http://www.Wikimedia.org
Systems Complex Hierarchical or nested Systems multi-scale structure Elements can interact in relatively simple ways May have many kinds (linear & non-linear) of elements/agents, Interdependent � propagation of effects elements can be distinguishable � small changes in initial by functions or parameters can have specialisations “large” effects Open system: exist in, & interact with a context: exchange information, energy, materials Leading to seemingly chaotic behaviour Patterns interact � higher Coherent dynamic order patterns behaviours � dynamic patterns emerge
Systems Complex Adaptive Systems Complex Systems CAS • Additional property of adaptivity: • structure and behaviour of the system changes over time in a way which tends to increase its ‘success’ or ability to thrive • Natural living systems, ‘engineered’ systems and socio ‐ technical systems
Emergence, scope and scale (1) From http://www.commons.wikimedia.org Emergence is coupled to scope Emergence is coupled to scope …. and scale …. and scale
Emergence, scope and scale (2) • Studying either macrostate or microstate in isolation is not adequate • Requires a multi ‐ scale approach • Need to establish which aspects of the microstate are relevant to the key emergent properties/behaviours at macrostate • Iterative analysis, combine top down and bottom up
Complexity and scale (no. poss independent behaviours) System Complexity http://www.FreeFoto.com Independent agents Coordinated agents Coherent agents Fine scale Coarse scale Scale of behaviour When the independence of the parts is When the independence of the parts is reduced, the scale of behaviour is increased Trade off between large scale reduced, the scale of behaviour is increased Trade off between large scale behaviour and fine scale complexity behaviour and fine scale complexity Based on Bar-Yam Y., Complexity of Military Conflict: Multi-scale Complex Systems Analysis of Littoral Warfare, NECSI, 2003
Complexity and scale in organisations (1) • Different mission have different requirements • Vary in complexity and scale • Successful force: • Able to achieve many tasks across the range of scales through matching its organisational complexity to the task • Making appropriate trade ‐ offs between complexity and scale System Complexity Insurgents Coalition forces Fine scale Coarse scale Scale of behaviour
Complexity and scale in organisations (2) • Response to solving complex problems has been to centralise control and assign individual responsibility • Individuals have a limited ability to deal with complexity • Many of today’s complex problems are beyond the ability of a single person to cope with • Hierarchies are limited by the ability of the commander to deal with complex environment • Best suited to delivery of large scale effect • Distribute complexity of the task among many individuals • Network structure can have a much greater level of complexity than its individual elements • Greater the number and independence of force elements the more effective a force is at high complexity missions • Local coordination produces local emergent collective behaviour • Distributed control is not a panacea • Need to determine what the correct balance is for specific mission
Complex environments – the need to adapt Planning for all eventualities becomes impossible on any reasonable scale of time, system size, or effort We need to: • rapidly decide, as situations develop , what is to be done, how, who with, & how to measure success • maintain effectiveness under unpredictable and rapidly evolving conditions , retaining ability to raise additional tasks as needed • to rapidly assemble tailored, diverse, multi-disciplinary teams and get them operational and effective Ability to adapt appropriately is fundamental to success Requiring: • investment in the capability to adapt to the unexpected • generation of capabilities that have the capacity to respond effectively to new and unforeseen challenges • moving away from planning and optimising for highly probable events with a predetermined response
Outcome of selection encoded Concept of in system memory fitness selection adopt/discard System assesses whether change was desirable; keeps or discards change sense feedback Context System senses changes outcome of “new” context interaction System System and context interact System and sense context change interact System changes (triggered by outcome of interaction) variation
Counter insurgent conflict ecosystem Multiple cooperating and competing groups Coalition Coalition forces OGDs ……. operating at multiple scales Local Legitimate International government businesses Media National National government National forces NGOs Media National Private police security co. Local population Foreign Criminal Tribal fighters Political groups fighters cells Religious groups Refugees Illegitimate Warlords business Militia Ethnic groups Terrorists Tribal groups Clans Hypothetical boundaries for purpose of analysis Based on Kilcullen D., Counterinsurgency Redux, Small Wars Journal, http://smallwarsjournal.com/documents/kilcullen1.pdf
Unbounded system; local & global networks & interdependencies Legitimate businesses Coalition National forces government Coalition Local Private OGDs government security co. National International forces Foreign National Media fighters Media National police NGOs Illegitimate business Local population Tribal fighters Terrorists Political groups Religious groups Refugees Warlords Militia Ethnic groups Criminals Tribal groups Clans
Open system Open system boundary enabling Technology Trade input and output s e Constraints c r u o Coalition s Coalition e R n forces o OGDs i t Intelligence i s o p Local p Legitimate O International government businesses Media Support Propaganda National National government National forces NGOs Media Intelligence National Private police security co. Ideology Local population Ideology Foreign Criminals Tribal fighters fighters Political groups Support Religious groups Training Refugees Illegitimate Warlords business Militia Propaganda Resources Ethnic groups Terrorist Tribal O Opposition p p groups o s Clans i Technology t i o n Training Trade
Multi ‐ scale adaptation & co ‐ adaptation
Implications for system analysis • Multi ‐ scale problems • So look how to tackle the problem at all scales • Combining bottom up (tackling the source of grievance on local scale) and top down (strategic support to nation in establishing governance) approaches • Multi ‐ dimensional problem space • So look for interventions across all the potential dimensions • Understand how effects propagate through the system • Consider role of intra ‐ level and inter ‐ level dynamics • Bridge the gap between individual and collective behaviour Interdependence → planning an intervention review the potential • unintended consequences across dimensions & scales not targeted specifically by that action • Consider role of adaptation and co ‐ adaptation affects overall system behaviour • Flow of energy/material/information etc. into system are powerful drivers of self ‐ organisation and collective behaviour • System can only be understood in terms of context
CAS approach challenges current assumptions • Closed system • Linear & reductionist approaches enable us to predict and reproduce system behaviour • Behaviour of the whole is the sum of the parts • Systems are well mixed and spatial and temporal behaviour can be averaged • Systems don’t adapt • Spare capacity = redundancy • Environmental conditions can be ignored • Behaviours at different scales are independent • Control is centralised
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