Euromoney Country Risk Q2 2019 RESULTS 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 Euromoney Country Risk Q2 2019 RESULTS

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction (Scoring) 2. Q/Q update 3. Y/Y update 4. Contacts

3 SCORING Euromoney Country Risk is a platform designed to capture and aggregate the views of country risk experts. It comprises real-time country risk scores for over 180 markets in 15 categories that relate to economic, structural and political risk There are over 400 experts (primarily economists) who are surveyed quarterly Historical data sets are available: Annual data back to 1993 and quarterly data back to 2011 Our subscriber base is primarily corporate treasurers, but also includes SWFs, asset managers, banks (FX, Risk, Sovereign debt issuance)

4 GLOBAL MOVEMENTS: Q1 2019 – Q2 2019 Regio ion Score Rank Up Down Up Down Africa 6 5 5 5 Americas 8 9 2 4 Asia 10 12 4 2 Australasia 2 2 0 1 Caribbean 4 5 4 4 Central & Eastern 13 8 4 2 Europe Middle East 3 3 1 3 Western Europe 9 6 3 0 Total tal 55 55 50 50 23 23 21 21

5 QUARTERLY – GLOBAL TOP/BOTTOM 5 Country try 2019 Q2 Score Q/Q Change ge Maldives 24.71 1.37 Barbados 41.58 0.66 Top 5 Moldova 34.05 0.56 Jamaica 36.39 0.43 Bangladesh 32.51 0.35 Ethiopia 34.66 -0.23 Bermuda 52.13 -0.24 Bottom 5 Nicaragua 29.14 -0.52 Fiji 24.55 -0.68 Bhutan 22.96 -2.54

Q1 2019 – Q2 2019 - AFRICA 6 Top 5 - Africa Bottom 5 - Africa 70 0.15 0.09 0.1 0.1 0.09 60 0.05 50 0.03 0.02 2019 Q2 SCORE 0 -0.01 40 -0.03 -0.04 Q/Q CHANGE -0.05 -0.08 30 -0.1 20 -0.15 10 -0.2 -0.23 0 -0.25 Mozambique Tunisia Ghana South Africa Nigeria Zimbabwe Kenya Botswana Zambia Ethiopia 2019 Q2 Score Q/Q

Q1 2019 – Q2 2019 - AMERICAS 7 Bottom 5 - Americas Top 5 - Americas 90 0.4 0.33 0.3 80 0.2 70 0.1 60 0.04 0.03 0.03 2019 Q2 SCORE 0.02 0 Q/Q CHANGE -0.04 50 -0.06 -0.07 -0.1 40 -0.2 -0.22 30 -0.3 20 -0.4 10 -0.5 -0.52 0 -0.6 Honduras Ecuador Argentina Uruguay Paraguay Chile Panama Canada Bolivia Nicaragua 2019 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q1 2019 – Q2 2019 - ASIA 8 Bottom 5 - Asia Top 5 - Asia 100 2 90 1.5 1.37 80 1 70 0.5 0.35 0.18 2019 Q2 SCORE 0.11 0.09 Q/Q CHANGE 60 0 -0.06 -0.08 -0.1 -0.17 50 -0.5 40 -1 30 -1.5 20 -2 -2.54 10 -2.5 0 -3 Maldives Bangladesh Philippines Armenia Japan India Singapore China Thailand Bhutan 2019 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q12019 – Q2 2019 - AUSTRALASIA 9 Bottom 5 - Australasia Top 5 - Australasia 90 0.1 0.05 0.02 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 0 -0.02 70 -0.1 60 -0.2 2019 Q2 SCORE Q/Q CHANGE 50 -0.3 40 -0.4 30 -0.5 20 -0.6 -0.68 10 -0.7 0 -0.8 Papua New Australia Vanuatu Micronesia New Marshall Tonga Solomon New Fiji Guinea (Fed. Caledonia Islands Islands Zealand States) 2019 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q1 2019 – Q2 2019 - CARIBBEAN 10 Bottom 5 - Caribbean Top 5 - Caribbean 60 0.8 0.7 0.66 50 0.6 0.5 0.43 40 2019 Q2 SCORE 0.4 Q/Q CHANGE 0.3 30 0.23 0.2 0.16 0.1 20 0 0 -0.04 -0.09 -0.1 -0.1 10 -0.2 -0.23 -0.24 0 -0.3 Barbados Jamaica Bahamas St Lucia Haiti Dominican Cuba St Vincent & Trinidad & Bermuda Republic Grenadines Tobago 2019 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q1 2019 – Q2 2019 - CEE 11 Bottom 5 - CEE Top 5 - CEE 80 0.6 0.56 0.5 70 0.4 60 0.3 0.25 50 2019 Q2 SCORE 0.2 Q/Q CHANGE 0.17 0.16 40 0.13 0.1 30 0 -0.05 -0.05 -0.06 -0.07 20 -0.1 10 -0.2 -0.2 0 -0.3 Moldova Slovak Romania Belarus Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Albania Turkey Czech Republic Republic 2019 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q1 2019 – Q2 2019 – MIDDLE EAST 12 Bottom 5 – Middle East Top 5 - Middle East 80 0.06 0.05 0.04 70 0.04 0.02 60 0.02 2019 Q2 SCORE 0 0 0 0 50 0 Q/Q CHANGE 40 -0.02 -0.03 30 -0.04 20 -0.06 -0.08 -0.08 10 -0.08 0 -0.1 Saudi Qatar Oman Iran Yemen Iraq Lebanon United Arab Jordan Bahrain Arabia Emirates 2019 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q1 2019 – Q2 2019 – WESTERN EUROPE 13 Bottom 5 – Western Europe Top 5 - Western Europe 100 0.14 0.13 0.12 90 0.12 0.12 80 0.1 70 Q/Q CHANGE 0.08 2019 Q2 SCORE 60 0.06 0.06 0.05 50 0.04 40 0.02 30 0 20 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 10 0 -0.04 Greece United Belgium Spain Switzerland Italy Austria Finland Germany Denmark Kingdom 2019 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

14 GLOBAL MOVEMENTS: Q2 2019-2018 Regio ion Score Rank Up Down Up Down Africa 42 8 12 32 Americas 17 5 6 12 Asia 21 11 13 14 Australasia 10 1 4 1 Caribbean 8 5 2 11 Central & Eastern 21 4 13 8 Europe Middle East 7 6 4 7 Western Europe 18 1 8 3 Total tal 144 41 41 62 62 88 88

15 YEAR ON YEAR – GLOBAL TOP/BOTTOM 5 Country try 2019 Q2 Q2 Score Y/Y Y Change ange Nepal 31.89 9.11 Egypt 38.41 5.47 Top 5 Slovenia 68.58 5.42 Greece 40.35 5.31 Moldova 34.05 5.3 Korea South 69.17 -2.59 Panama 51.44 -3.15 Bottom 5 Macau 67.53 -4.14 Brunei 49.23 -4.28 Bermuda 52.13 -4.74

16 Q2 2018 – Q2 2019 – AFRICA Top 5 - Africa Bottom 5 – Africa 60 6 5.47 5.06 5 4.86 4.84 4.77 50 4 40 3 2019 Q2 SCORE Y/Y CHANGE 2 30 1 -0.06 20 0 -0.33 -0.68 -1 10 -2 -2.1 -2.19 0 -3 C ô te d‘Ivoire Egypt Angola Dem. Rep. Ghana Tanzania Zambia Seychelles Algeria South Africa Of the Congo 2019 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

17 Q2 2018 – Q2 2019 – AMERICAS Top 5 - Americas Bottom 5 – Americas 90 4 80 2.94 3 2.43 2.19 70 1.82 2 1.8 60 2019 Q2 Score 1 Y/Y change 50 0 -0.09 -0.19 -0.23 40 -1 30 -1.66 -2 20 -3 -3.15 10 0 -4 Belize Bolivia Honduras Ecuador Chile Canada Peru Costa Rica Nicaragua Panama 2019 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

18 Q2 2018-Q2 2019 – ASIA Bottom 5 – Asia Top 5 - Asia 80 10 9.11 70 8 60 6 4.29 2019 Q2 Score 50 4 Y/Y change 3.24 2.73 2.18 40 2 30 0 -1.53 -1.83 20 -2 -2.59 -4.14 10 -4 -4.28 0 -6 Nepal Uzbekistan Armenia Maldives Mongolia Malaysia Philippines Korea South Macau Brunei 2019 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

19 Q2 2018-Q2 2019 – AUSTRALASIA Top 5 - Australasia Bottom 5 – Australasia 90 2.5 2.09 2.01 80 2 1.6 70 1.5 60 1 2019 Q2 Score 1 0.91 0.76 Y/Y change 50 0.6 0.57 0.5 0.45 40 0 30 -0.5 20 -0.92 -1 10 0 -1.5 Vanuatu Papua New Micronesia New Australia Marshall Tonga Solomon New Fiji Guinea (Fed. Caledonia Islands Islands Zealand States) 2019 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

20 Q2 2018-Q2 2019 – CARIBBEAN Top 5 - Caribbean Bottom 5 – Caribbean 60 3 2 1.89 50 1.32 1.14 1 0.97 0.9 40 -0.14 0 -0.17 2019 Q2 Score -0.42 -0.65 Y/Y change -1 30 -2 20 -3 -4 10 -4.74 -5 0 -6 Trinidad & Jamaica Barbados Grenada St Lucia Cuba Bahamas Dominica Antigua & Bermuda Tobago Barbuda 2019 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

21 Q2 2018 – Q2 2019 – CEE Top 5 - CEE Bottom 5 – CEE 80 6 5.42 5.3 5.13 70 5 3.96 60 4 3.59 2019 Q2 Score 50 3 40 2 30 1 0.48 20 0 -0.2 -0.67 -0.86 -0.91 10 -1 0 -2 2019 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

22 Q2 2018 – Q2 2019 – MIDDLE EAST Top 5 - Middle East Bottom 5 – Middle East 80 5 4.3 70 4 3.71 60 3 2.54 2019 Q2 Score 50 Y/Y change 1.96 2 40 1.36 1 30 0 20 -0.38 -0.49 -0.7 -1 10 -1.33 -1.42 0 -2 Iraq Lebanon Jordan Yemen Kuwait Qatar Saudi Bahrain Oman United Arab Arabia Emirates 2019 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

23 Q2 2018 – Q2 2019 – WESTERN EUROPE Top 5 - Western Europe Bottom 5 – Western Europe 100 6 5.31 90 5 80 4 70 3.48 3.49 3.28 3 2019 Q2 Score 2.68 60 Y/Y change 50 2 40 1 0.61 0.56 0.45 0.41 30 0 20 -0.88 -1 10 0 -2 Greece Italy Portugal Spain Ireland Belgium France Germany Sweden Iceland 2019 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

24 CONTACTS Chen-Ta Sung Programme Manager Euromoney Country Risk Tel: +44 (0)20 77798752 chenta.sung@euromoney.com Patrick McCulloch ECR Sales Manager Euromoney Country Risk Tel: +44 (0) 2895 912905 Patrick.mcculloch@euromoneyplc.com