Towards better evidence on migration and development in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Capacity-building workshop on migration statistics Almaty, 31. Oct. 2013 Environmental pillar of migration: Introduction to the topic CAR Tamer Afifi United Nations University Insitute for Environment and Human Security Bonn
Environmental migrants No agreement 1985 UN-Environment Program (El-Hinnawi): "……those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption . . . that jeopardised their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life……."
Environmental migrants No agreement IOM working definition (2007): “Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad ”
Environmental migrants No agreement Environmentally Motivated Migrants who “may leave” a steadily deteriorating environment to pre - empt the worst. Environmentally Forced Migrants who “have to leave” to avoid inevitable and grave consequences of environmental degradation Environmental Emergency Migrants who “flee” the worst of an environmental impact to save their lives.
www.each-for.eu Spain Spain Russia Russia Kazakhstan Kazakhstan The Balkans The Balkans Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Tajikistan Dominican Dominican Morocco Morocco Republic, Haiti Republic, Haiti Western Western China China Sahara Sahara Niger Niger Vietnam Vietnam Turkey Turkey Senegal Senegal Mexico Mexico Bangladesh Bangladesh Ghana Ghana Ecuador Ecuador Mozambique Mozambique Egypt Egypt Argentina Argentina Tuvalu Tuvalu
(Forced) human displacement social cultural
Main outcomes: 1. Food security is a key factor 2. Climatic/environmental problems are often root causes 3. Most of the migration is internal 5. What is national is becoming international migration 6. What is seasonal/temporary is becoming long-term/permanent migration
Gravity model: - The impact of environmental degradation on migration between countries pair wise. - 13 global environmental factors. - Other 13 geographic, economic, political, social, historical and cultural indicators. - 172 countries.
Horn of Africa Study
Horn of Africa Study Key findings 1. Discernible shifts in weather in the home countries over the past 10 – 15 years. 2. Severe impacts on farming and livestock husbandry in the homelands of the refugees 3. Weather conditions as a multiplier/magnifier of pre-existing conflicts in countries of origin. 4. Wide range of traditional and innovative adaptation strategies in situ . 5. Human movements were only the last resort. 6. Movements due to pure climatic issues were rather internal and temporary.
Partners and Donors With the support of: and 12
Geographic Diversity: 8 Countries 8 case studies Source: CARE France Duration: 2011-2013 Fieldwork Summer 2011 - Winter 2012 13
Case Study Reports 14
Project objectives & scope OBJECTIVES 1. To understand how rainfall variability, food security and human mobility interact today 2. To understand how these factors might interact in coming decades as the impact of climate change begins to be felt more strongly 3. To work with communities to identify ways to manage rainfall variability, food/livelihood insecurity, and migration. 15
Field Research Methodology* Expert interviews Ranking of coping strategies, Thailand. Participatory Research Approach Source: Sakdapolrak, 2008 Household surveys Resource map, Tanzania. Source: Afifi, 2012 Seasonal calendar, Peru. Source: Milan, 2011 _______________________________ *See Rademacher-Schulz et al. (2012) 16
Rademacher-Schulz, Christina, Tamer Afifi, Koko Warner, Thérèse Rosenfeld, Andrea Milan, Benjamin Etzold and Patrick Sakdapolrak (2012): “Rainfall variability, food security and human mobility. An approach for generating empirical evidence.” Intersections No. 10. Bonn: UNU-EHS. 17
Global Findings based on 8 case studies Source: Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow, 2012 18
4 household profiles Migration Migration used to Migration erosive Migration not an improves HH survive, but not coping strategy option: trapped resilience flourish populations • Economy : chronically • Economy : poor • Economy : land scarce • Economy : landless food insecure, landless, • Adaptation options : • Adaptation options : less • Adaptation options : few female -headed HH access to livelihoods access to assets & adaptation options in • Adaptation options : options &assets (social, institutions for support situ, inability to diversify insufficient assets to • Education : Children have • economic, political), Education : All HH adapt locally or through • Education : Children have same education level as members have low or no migration 3-5 years more education parents education / skill levels • Education : More HHs • Migrant : HH Head, mid • than parents Migrant : HH Head, mid have low or no • Migrant : early 20s, single; 40s, migration in hunger 40s, migration in hunger education / skill levels temporal migration season season • Migrant : not feasible • Remittances : education, • Remittances : Success in • Remittances : Partial • Remittances : none. livelihood diversification, obtaining food or money success in obtaining food Abandoned / trapped health to buy food or money to buy food populations Resilience to climatic stressors Vulnerability to climatic stressors
Potential future relationships among rainfall variability, food security and migration (Tanzania) 2.00 Scenario 1 Normalised difference rate of vulnerable (drying) 1.50 Scenario 2 1.00 (wetting) migration 0.50 Scenario 3 (extreme 0.00 wetting) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 Scenario 4 -0.50 (extreme drying) -1.00 Source: Dr. Christopher Smith, 2012 UNU-EHS cdsmith@ehs.unu.edu 20
Conclusions • General perception of climatic changes in the form of rainfall variability • Negative impacts on agricultural production (food and livelihood insecurity) • Migration characteristics • Migration in response to climatic problems/risks (nature of relationship) • Household characteristics matter • Future pressure on rainfall-dependent livelihoods and its impact on human mobility 21 11/4/2013
Warner, Koko, Tamer Afifi, Kevin Henry, Tonya Rawe, Christopher Smith, and Alex De Sherbinin (2012): “Where the Rain Falls: Climate change, food and livelihood security, and migration.” Global Policy Report. Bonn: UNU-EHS. 22
Thank you for your attention Contact: Dr Tamer Afifi Associate Academic Officer UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Bonn Tel + 49-228-815-0232 afifi@ehs.unu.edu www.ehs.unu.edu http://wheretherainfalls.org 23
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