Enrol ollmen ent, D Dem emog ograp aphics, cs, Supply an Su - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Enrol ollmen ent, D Dem emog ograp aphics, cs, Supply an Su y and Per erforman ance ce Tren ends Taylor Gunn Director of Student Housing, Axiometrics a RealPage company #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire

U.S. E Enrol ollmen ent Chang nge a e and G d Growth By y typ ype of of university ty Public Four-Year Public Two-Year Private Not-for-Profit Private For-Profit 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 -200,000 -400,000 -600,000 -800,000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Sources: Axiometrics, University Fact Books, CDS, IPEDS

Tot otal Ch Change i in High S Schoo ool G Graduates b by State - 2018-202 023 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)

Axi Axio175 uni universities ar are pr project cted to s o see ano another f flat growth year ar be befor ore pi picki king up up later i r in n the he out outlook Change in Enrollment Enroll Growth Projecting elevated growth in 2020 and 140,000 4.0% 2021 3.5% 120,000 3.0% 100,000 2.5% 80,000 2.0% 60,000 1.5% 40,000 1.0% 20,000 0.5% 0 0.0% -20,000 -0.5% -40,000 -1.0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Sources: Axiometrics, a RealPage company, University Factbook, CDS, IPEDs

What will d drive en enrol ollment g growth? Job Growth Enrollment Growth 18-24 YO Population Growth Enrollment Growth 4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 0.5% 1.0% -1.5% 0.0% -3.5% -1.0% -5.5% -2.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Sources: Axiometrics, a RealPage company, University Factbooks, IPEDS, BLS

New supply v vol olume r remai ains s con onsi sistent o over er t the past f few yea ears 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company

Universi Uni sity 2018 2018 Florida State University 2,707 Texas A&M University 2,487 University of Central Florida 1,495 University of Texas at Austin 1,483 East Carolina University 1,283 University of Texas at Arlington 1,282 Pennsylvania State University 1,261 University of Michigan 1,247 New o off ff-campu pus s supp upply l lead aders Indiana University 1,228 University of Mississippi 1,186 Colorado State University 1,165 this th is fall (2 ll (2018) University of Minnesota 1,157 University of Texas at Dallas 1,080 Syracuse University 1,079 Iowa State University 1,062 University of Tennessee 1,034 Coastal Carolina University 994 California State University - Chico 907 University of North Carolina - Charlotte 887 Arizona State University 775 Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company

Universi Uni sity 2018 2018 2019 2019 % Change % C University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign 65 1,562 2303% Montana State University 130 887 582% Missouri State University 70 344 391% Purdue University 583 2,118 263% Texas State University 348 1,117 221% Clemson University 686 994 45% University of Florida 625 898 44% North Carolina State University 675 963 43% Universities e s expect ecting t the e largest University of South Florida 542 755 39% Northern Arizona University 589 650 10% % cha hange in ne n new of off-campu pus University of Texas at Austin 1,483 1,375 -7% Ohio State University 735 574 -22% Georgia Institute of Technology 765 525 -31% be beds ds nex ext fall (2 ll (2019) Florida State University 2,707 1,649 -39% University of Texas at Arlington 1,282 687 -46% University of Iowa 585 300 -49% East Carolina University 1,283 609 -53% University of Montana 500 208 -58% Colorado State University 1,165 429 -63% California State University - Sacramento 750 270 -64% University of Michigan 1,247 243 -81% *Based on figures as of August 2018. These figures are preliminary and could change as more projects are identified. Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company

Leasing v ng veloc ocity w was trendi ending b ng below l last y year, b but ut cau aught up later i r in t the l leas easing s seas eason on Fall 2017 Fall 2018 100% 94.1% 88.9% 90% 94.0% 81.6% 88.8% 80% 75.1% 81.6% 68.8% 70% 74.4% 58.9% 67.3% 60% 50.2% 58.9% 50% 37.5% 49.7% 40% 30.2% 37.2% 30% 19.3% 28.6% 20% 5.3% 16.9% 10% 4.2% 0% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company

Proximity t to campus us c continu nues es t to help d p drive e strong nger er p performanc nce August Prelease Annual Effective Rent Growth 95.6% 1.7% 1.4% 92.9% 90.1% 0.8% < 0.5 mi 0.5 mi to 1.0 mi > 1.0 mi < 0.5 mi 0.5 mi to 1.0 mi > 1.0 mi Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company

Certain universities a are faci cing ch g challenges, b but many con ontinue t to o see stron ong p perfor ormance No 2018 Supply 2018 Supply ERG > National Avg. 10% Prelease > National Avg. ERG > National Avg. 8% Prelease < National Avg. 6% Effective Rent Growth 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% ERG < National Avg. ERG < National Avg. -8% Prelease < National Avg. Prelease > National Avg. -10% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% August 2018 Prelease Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company