Economic Outlook Peter Andrews Agent for Greater London Bank of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Economic Outlook Peter Andrews Agent for Greater London Bank of England At ASTL September 2017 @BoELondon

Market-implied paths for short-term rates have risen in the UK and euro area Greater London Agency Sources: Bank of England, Bloomberg, ECB and Federal Reserve. :

Sterling has remained 15%-20% below its late-2015 peak Greater London Agency

GDP growth; market Bank Rate path, other policy measures as announced Greater London Agency :

CPI inflation, market Bank Rate path, other policy measures as announced Greater London Agency :

Rising goods prices have pushed up inflation Sources: Bloomberg, DBEIS, ONS and Bank calculations. Greater London Agency

Import price inflation appears to be easing Greater London Agency Sources: BoE, BCC, CBI, CEIC, Eurostat, IHS Markit, ONS, Thomson Reuters Datastream and Bank calculations.

Rising import prices have weighed on household real income growth Greater London Agency

Consumer credit growth has remained robust Sources: Bank of England, ONS and Bank calculations . Greater London Agency

Surveys point to a pickup in export growth Greater London Agency Sources: BoE, BCC, CBI, EEF, IHS Markit, ONS and Bank calculations.

Indicators of investment intentions point to near-term growth Greater London Agency Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC, EEF, ONS and Bank calculations.

House prices and activity slowed; new building increased Sources: Bank of England, CML, DCLG, IHS Markit, Nationwide and Bank calculations . Greater London Agency

Chart 5.5 Unemployment projection: market Bank Rate path, other policy measures as announced . Greater London Agency

Chart 3.3 Wage growth subdued as unemployment has fallen Greater London Agency

Chart 3.10 Real wages have grown broadly with productivity since 2008 Greater London Agency