8/8/2009 John Tichotsky Economic Approach to • International Affairs Advisor: Roman Abramovich, Head of Chukotka Parliament, Russia (private sector Energy Issues consultant) • Arctic Research Consortium US Board member; Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge (UK); Lessons Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of for Alaska; University of Hawaii, Alaska Pacific University Northeast Asia’s Young Leaders • Director and CFO, gold exploration company; small-scale developer (practical business experience) • Economist and Consultant specializing natural resource August 2009 economics (Russia, Mongolia, UK, US) • Fitch-IBCA, credit ratings John Tichotsky, Ph.D. ( Cantab .) • Education: Dartmouth College (USA); Jesus College, Alaska Cambridge Group, LLC University of Cambridge (UK) Chukotka is the Russian region closest to the United States and Alaska. Since 1992, one of 87 equal subjects of the Russian Federation The Chukotka Autonomous Changes for Chukotka District Roman Abramovich, Head of Chukotka Parliament • Located in extreme Northeast of Russia • Area is 737,700 square kilometers, twice the size of Japan, or France and the UK combined • Population56,000,of which,17,000 Native people • More than half of area located north of the Arctic Circle • Extreme climactic conditions, withpermafrost 1
8/8/2009 Why isn’t this Economic Crisis like What happens during a Recession? 1933? • Correction in asset prices – mostly done? • Liquidity crisis – getting resolved? • Insolvency – in some sectors… • Complete collapse? Seems not yet… • Prices (overall, energy, commodities) – it depends – Deflation – Inflation – Stagflation (rising prices, stagnant economy) • Unemployment – already up in the US… FOREIGN TRADE…A GLOBAL ECONOMY Business Cycle A New US Energy Policy “New Energy for America” Energy Plan is a “Green Plan” From US Policy Statement • Help create five million new jobs by strategically investing • “Invest in alternative $150 billion over the next ten years to catalyze private and renewable efforts to build a clean energy future . • Within 10 years save more oil than we currently import energy, end our from the Middle East and Venezuela combined. addiction to foreign • Put 1 million Plug-In Hybrid cars -- cars that can get up to oil, address the global 150 miles per gallon -- on the road by 2015, cars that we climate crisis and will work to make sure are built here in America. create millions of new • Ensure 10 percent of our electricity comes from jobs.” renewable sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025 . • Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050. 2
8/8/2009 What is the real scale of the $150 Billion????? problem? • “Help create five million new • EXAMPLE: $45.22 Billion profit only for Exxon Mobil for 2008 jobs by strategically investing • $150 billion OVER TEN YEARS = $15 billion a $150 billion over the next ten year investment in a “clean energy future” seems to be a joke… years to catalyze private efforts to build a clean energy future .” Major Integrated Oil Companies 2007 Independent oil producers 2007 (Millions) (millions) Source: CRS Report for Congress Oil Industry Profit Review 2007 Robert Pirog, Specialist in Energy Source: CRS Report for Congress Oil Industry Profit Review 2007 Robert Pirog, Specialist in Energy Economics, Resources, Science, and Industry Division April 4, 2008 Economics, Resources, Science, and Industry Division April 4, 2008 US POLICY: “Eliminate Our Current US Energy Dependence Imports from the Middle East and Venezuela within 10 Years” • Increase Fuel Economy Standards. • Get 1 Million Plug-In Hybrid Cars on the Road by 2015. • Create a New $7,000 Tax Credit for Purchasing Advanced Vehicles. • Establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard. • A “Use it or Lose It” Approach to Existing Oil and Gas Leases. • Promote the Responsible Domestic Production of Oil and Natural Gas. 3
8/8/2009 US Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries) Even if it were realistic or desirable 000s barrels ECUADOR to eliminate imports from 3% BRAZIL ALGERIA 1% 4% ANGOLA RUSSIA Venezuela and Mid-East CHAD 1% UNITED KINGDOM 5% 1% 1% KUWAIT NIGERIA NORWAY – what would that percentage be? 1% 2% 11% • 60 percent TIMES 35 per cent = VENEZUELA IRAQ 12% Other 21 percent 6% 23% • That means the US would have to MEXICO SAUDI ARABIA increase its domestic production 17% 15% CANADA 20% 2% to 4% a year over ten years Source: EIA A comparison of scale: How much did/does “There never was a good The War cost in terms of oil ? war or a bad peace.” Years of 100% subsidy Days of 100% Price per of foreign T otal number of US imports subsidy of barrel oil barrels per day foreign oil $150 1.45 5,333,333,333 10,055,153 530 $130 1.68 6,153,846,154 10,055,153 612 $100 2.18 8,000,000,000 10,055,153 796 US Policy Advisor $60 13,333,333,333 10,055,153 3.63 1326 Benjamin Franklin $30 26,666,666,667 10,055,153 7.27 2652 $15 53,333,333,333 10,055,153 14.53 5304 The false dichotomy of If Americans were willing to spend Main Street versus Wall Street billions and billions on The War – why don’t we want to spend billions and billions on The Recovery? 4
8/8/2009 Wasilla Main Street = Parks Highway Capital Costs Changing American behavior China NEW CAFE Regulations 39 miles per gallon by 2016 USA- how do you cut $1200 per gasoline consumption? vehicle higher 1. High fuel price OR cost 2. Lack of consumer Europe spending Electrical Electric cars are “green” - Generation but where does/will the electricity come from?? 5
8/8/2009 Electricity generation by fuel Who will produce • Coal continues as base fuel in US these cars? • Natural gas is number two • Environmental and Political pressure to increase share of Nuclear, petroleum and renewable fuels generation Internal Combustion Engine Carbon Emissions and US Public Reliable Since 1885 • Public will exists to reduce emissions that induce climate change. • Public will for change in US policy on emissions • However, PROBLEM OF EMISSIONS Conservation: PHYSICAL REALITIES “Conservation” and environment • Why do we need to conserve (preserve) • Energy cannot be created or for conservation’s sake? destroyed – it can only be – Do we need oil for “future TRANSFORMED from one form to generations”? another • “Depleting non - renewable” resources to generate energy is NOT SYNONOMOUS E=mc 2 with emissions of greenhouse gases. 6
8/8/2009 SOURCES OF ENERGY AVAILABLE Hydrogen? • Nuclear Fusion (SUN: Main source) – Solar – Hydrocarbon fuel: coal, oil, natural gas (is all gas biotic?), ethanol – wind, hydro – fusion plants (future), • Nuclear Fission – current nuclear plants • Gravity – tidal and hydro (solar component)) What is the best way to store Hydrogen Basics hydrogen? • Hydrogen is not primary fuel, but method of energy storage • Hydrogen does not occur freely in large quantities. • Two ways to create free hydrogen – Electrolysis – Reforming hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) H 2 or as a • treatment of methane with steam Liquid in combination • CH4 (g) + H2O + e > 3H2(g) + CO(g). • CO(g) carbon monoxide gas (greenhouse with Carbon???? gas). • Liquid Hydrocarbons remain one of FORMS OF ENERGY FOR the most effective methods for USE and STORAGE transporting and storing energy • We know how to USE energy • Better understanding ENERGY STORAGE may be the breakthrough needed for our energy PROBLEMS… 7
8/8/2009 Capital Investment in New Energy LONG-TERM REALITIES Sources, New Energy Infrastructure or New Energy Technology • INVESTMENT • A promise of an upward trend demand in IN energy, infrastructure and technology ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES • A promise of an upward trend in prices, that is AND NEW represented by greater demand TECHNOLOGY • OR much greater volume of demand with falling prices – the process of commoditization. Investment in Alternative Energies “Clean Coal” Technology • Problem if prices of traditional fuel is low – • Carbon Capture what is the incentive?? • Using supercritical and ultra-supercritical • Government funding potentially competes steam to reduce coal consumption at the with investment for conventional fuels and plant creates distortions to the markets. • USA – 0 China- more than 40 • Dampens anticipated long-term prices for conventional fuels – but what is real outcome. • What role does economic crisis and investment climate play in reality of such investment… Where does Technology new technology come from? • Need recognition of the LONG TIME TO • Large corporation R&D IMPLEMENT from idea to mass use • Universities and research – At least 3 years from idea to proto- institutes type – At least 3 years from proto-type to • Government laboratories pilot plant (including military and space – At least 2 years from pilot to mass use programs) of technology • Entrepreneurs – Elections cycles are much shorter… 8
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