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Earnings Presentation 1 st Quarter 2020 Disclaimer This presentation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Earnings Presentation 1 st Quarter 2020 Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, forward -looking statements . By their nature, forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to


  1. Earnings Presentation 1 st Quarter 2020

  2. Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, “forward -looking statements” . By their nature, forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The future results of Alpek, S.A.B. de C.V. and its subsidiaries may differ from the results expressed in, or implied by the forward-looking statements set out herein, possibly to a material degree.

  3. 1Q20 Highlights Achieved better-than-expected results vs. Guidance amid volatile environment COVID-19 has not impacted our operations as our products are considered essential for Food / Beverage / CPG packaging, as well as medical supplies Reported EBITDA of U.S. $111 million / U.S. $127 million Comparable EBITDA Paid U.S. $143 million dividend related to Cogeneration sale & approved U.S. $82 million dividend in our Annual Shareholders Meeting Alpek maintains strong financial position as Leverage is 1.7x Net Debt to EBITDA Announced extension to Corpus Christi Polymers (CCP) pre-construction period & reduced CAPEX needs by U.S. $45 million in 2020 3

  4. COVID-19 Alpek posted better-than-expected 1Q results amid volatile environment Industry Impact 1Q20 Effects on Alpek Company Reaction • • No adverse effect to Alpek’s • Lower crude oil demand in Asia = Increased hygiene measures & home office to protect employees’ resulted in decreases to Crude Oil business continuity from COVID-19 & Paraxylene (Px) prices health • Alpek’s businesses deemed = • • Polyester margins strengthened essential (food & beverage Guarantee PET production to vs. 4Q19 as lower PTA/PET output packaging, CPG, medical supplies & customers given high demand from Asia reduced supply in 1Q20 general chemicals) • Focus on financial stability results > > • • Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real + Polyester and polypropylene in FCF US$181M better than depreciated during 1Q20 results favored by improved expectations volumes and margins • Cash balance improved by – • US$36M non-cash Inventory Loss U$240M by drawing committed and negative Raw Material Carry- long / short-term credit lines Forward effect – • Two employees in USA have COVID-19 Volatility surrounding COVID-19 makes it difficult to predict feedstock prices, demand and margins / 2020 Guidance has been withdrawn until Alpek can provide reliable estimates 4

  5. Relevant References: Crude Oil Price reduction from demand reduction & no agreement to reduce output in 1Q20 US$/Bbl Brent Crude Oil Price 120 Avg. 100 99 80 71 Guidance 60 64 59 54 53 44 40 20 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2018 5 Source: Bloomberg

  6. Relevant References: Paraxylene Px prices also fell in 1Q20 following their correlation with Crude Oil US$/Ton NA Px Contract Price 2,000 1,708 1,635 1,641 US$165/ton 1,500 1,382 decrease from 1,258 1,282 Dec.’19 to Mar.’20 1,165 1,056 1,100 1,077 992 989 977 955 937 924 924 1,000 876 876 500 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2017 2018 2019 2020 6 Source: IHS

  7. Relevant References: Integrated PET Margins Margins have already risen above Guidance levels in low-demand quarter Asian Margins (Px / MEG to PET) US$/Ton 600 China 500 478 393 400 377 370 342 333 324 304 284 346 300 277 193 276 275 263 255 248 Guidance 240 214 242 227 227 223 255 215 238 164 214 200 202 PET 204 196 208 184 186 174 145 180 165 159 100 200 155 140 133 135 117 110 104 80 81 82 78 PTA 74 69 69 72 62 64 60 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2017 2018 2019 2020 7 Source: ICIS, PCI, CCFGroup

  8. Relevant References: Propylene & Polypropylene Decrease in both PGP contract prices & industry PP margins in 1Q20 NA Propylene Contract Price (PGP) NA Polypropylene Margin (PP to PGP) cpp cpp 80 28 27 76 26 71 69 24 70 24 22 Alpek able to 22 22 60 22 21 maintain 20 60 margins in 1Q 54 20 19 18 50 45 15 16 15 39 13 38 38 40 37 14 35 12 34 12 12 31 30 10 8 20 6 4 10 2 0 0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2019 2020 2019 2020 8 Source: IHS

  9. EBITDA Comparison Lower EBITDA QoQ from lower contract margins & lack of Cogen operations Alpek EBITDA (US$M) Comparable EBITDA 356 Comparable EBITDA exc. RMCF 1 CoGen 188 231 Sale 217 213 173 167 189 147 172 148 127 194 167 161 140 Reported 111 EBITDA 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 9 (1) Raw Material Carry-Forward

  10. EBITDA Breakdown Both Polyester and P&C exceeded Comparable 1Q EBITDA Guidance (exc. RMCF) Alpek 1Q20 EBITDA vs. Guidance (US$M) +26% 147 1 10 20 127 20 116 17 50 Others 111 50 P&C 40 49 94 74 74 Polyester 58 1Q20G Polyester P&C Others 1Q20 Comparable RMCF 1 1Q20 Comparable Inventory 1Q20 Reported (w. RMCF) 1 Adjustment 10 (1) Raw Material Carry-Forward

  11. Raw Material Carry Forward Effect (RMCF 1 ) Breakdown Smaller YoY & QoQ difference in EBITDA when excluding extraordinary effects 2020 2019 Delta US$M 1T 1T 4T 1T 4T 111 140 167 (29) (57) Reported EBITDA Inventory Adjustment (17) (19) (6) 2 (11) - 11 1 (11) (1) Others 127 148 172 (20) (45) Comparable EBITDA Raw Material Carry-Forward (20) (19) (2) (1) (18) Comparable EBITDA + 147 167 173 (20) (26) Raw Material Carry-Forward (1) Raw Material Carry-Forward: Effect on margin generated from price change to raw materials between purchase vs. actual consumption. Positive or negative depending on price change 11 (2) Excludes Cogeneration sale

  12. Leverage Alpek maintains low leverage despite payment of dividend from Cogen sale Net Debt (US$M) LTM EBITDA (US$M) Net Debt/EBITDA (Times) 2,200 1,022 2.4 2,084 2.2 2,036 944 2.2 864 850 821 1.7 1.6 1,436 1,330 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 12

  13. For Additional Information Email: IR@alpek.com / Phone: +52 (818) 748-1146 Alejandro • 9 Years at Alfa/Alpek Elizondo • Previously held roles as Director of Logistics & Procurement at Indelpro, Director of Energy Markets at IRO Alfa, and Project Leader at The Boston Consulting Group • BS in Industrial Engineering from Cornell University and MBA from Stanford Graduate School of Business aelizondo@alpek.com Alejandra • 8 Years at Alfa/Alpek Bustamante • Previously held roles in Human Capital, Talent & Culture at Alfa and Axtel IR Manager • BA in International Relations from ITESM abustamante@alpek.com 13

  14. Earnings Presentation 1 st Quarter 2020

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