earnings presentation
play

Earnings Presentation 3 rd Quarter 2019 1 Disclaimer This - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Earnings Presentation 3 rd Quarter 2019 1 Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, forward -looking statements . By their nature, forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to


  1. Earnings Presentation 3 rd Quarter 2019 1

  2. Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, “forward -looking statements” . By their nature, forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The future results of Alpek, S.A.B. de C.V. and its subsidiaries may differ from the results expressed in, or implied by the forward-looking statements set out herein, possibly to a material degree.

  3. 3Q19 Highlights 3Q19 EBITDA results show strong quarter-on-quarter improvement 2019 YTD Comparable EBITDA on track to meet 2019 Guidance Altamira Cogeneration plant obtained all permits for commercial operations in September • Currently operating & serving customers / Sale expected to be finalized before year-end Issued 10-Year US$500M bond at 4.25% coupon • Lowest spread in Alpek’s history / Debt maturity improved from 2.7 to 4.9 years Joined The Recycling Partnership to increase PET circular economy efforts & awareness 3

  4. Relevant References: Crude Oil Strong fluctuations due to US-China trade war & Saudi refinery attack US$/Bbl Brent Crude Oil Price 3Q 120 Avg. 100 99 80 Guidance 71 68 64 60 54 53 44 40 20 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Bloomberg 4

  5. Relevant References: Paraxylene Slow-down in Px price drop during 3Q19 & stable prices since August US$/Ton NA Px Contract Price 2,000 1,708 1,635 1,641 Only US$55/ton 1,500 1,382 drop throughout 1,258 1,282 3Q19 1,165 977 1,056 1,100 1,077 992 989 955 924 924 1,000 900 898 878 829 500 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: IHS Markit 5

  6. Relevant References: Integrated PET Margins Margins remained above both Guidance (US$300/ton) & 1Q19 levels Asian Margins (Px / MEG to PET) US$/Ton 600 China 2018 results benefitted 478 500 from extraordinary margins Sep. posted 393 377 US$260/ton 400 370 342 333 324 304 284 277 346 300 276 193 263 260 255 248 240 214 227 242 211 212 210 215 238 164 PET 214 200 202 204 208 184 189 186 174 180 165 148 147 153 100 200 155 140 PTA 133 135 117 110 104 80 81 74 69 69 71 72 62 64 63 60 58 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: ICIS, PCI, CCFGroup 6

  7. Relevant References: Propylene & Polypropylene Slight margin reduction but still above Guidance (21cpp) NA Propylene Contract Price (PGP) NA Polypropylene Margin (PGP to PP) cpp cpp 80 28 27 76 26 71 69 24 70 24 23 23 22 22 22 60 60 22 21 60 20 20 19 53 52 51 18 50 45 15 16 39 13 38 38 40 37 14 12 34 12 12 30 10 8 20 6 4 10 2 0 0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 2018 2019 2018 2019 Source: IHS Markit 7

  8. EBITDA 3Q19 with continued operational strength & lower inventory losses Alpek EBITDA (US$M) 622 369 Badwill 550 PQS 220 +13% 234 Comparable EBITDA 218 213 (exc. RMCF) 1 694 189 181 Comparable EBITDA 170 148 495 274 239 Reported 194 181 EBITDA 161 149 140 YTD18 YTD19 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 2018 2019 (1) Raw Material Carry-Forward 8

  9. EBITDA Breakdown 2019 YTD Comparable EBITDA currently exceeding Guidance 231 3 12 18 213 16 26 194 190 65 3 Others EBITDA 65 53 P&C 60 3Q19 vs. 3Q19G 163 144 136 129 (US$M) Polyester YTD19G Polyester P&C Others YTD19 RMCF 1 YTD19 Inventories Others YTD19 Comparable Comparable Reported (w. RMCF) 1 615 9 47 65 550 541 29 Others 495 63 184 7 137 P&C EBITDA 185 175 YTD19 vs. YTD19G 388 417 351 Polyester (US$M) 305 RMCF 1 YTD19G Polyester P&C Others YTD19 YTD19 Inventories Others YTD19 Comparable Comparable Reported (w. RMCF) 1 (1) Raw Material Carry-Forward 9

  10. Leverage Debt reduction offset by lower LTM EBITDA as ‘18 margins phased out Net Debt (US$M) LTM EBITDA (US$M) Net Debt/EBITDA (Times) 2,200 1,063 3.1 1,022 2,084 2.9 2,036 944 1,832 864 834 2.4 1,637 1,603 2.2 2.2 1.9 1,270 1.7 564 407 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 10

  11. Debt Profile Issued 10-Year US$500M bond improving debt maturity to 4.9 years US$M Consolidated Debt Profile (Sep. 2019) 900 800 691 700 Existing 600 Bonds 500 500 400 650 309 309 300 300 250 200 96 100 0 Cash 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 (1) A small portion of debt is denominated in ARS (2) Excludes leases, documents and accrued interests 11

  12. Guidance YTD Comparable EBITDA on track to meet Guidance Alpek Guidance & Progress Towards 200 US$615M US$63M including RMCF 1 inventory losses 168 55 550 19 495 36 918 213 3Q19 194 337 1H19 301 Reported Net Extraordinary Comparable Cogen Sale 2019 4Q19 EBITDA EBITDA Items EBITDA (To Meet (Estimate) Guidance Guidance) (1) Raw Material Carry-Forward 12

  13. For Additional Information IR@alpek.com / +52 (818) 748-1146 Alejandro • 8 Years at Alfa/Alpek Elizondo • Previously held roles as Director of Logistics & Procurement at Indelpro, Director of Energy Markets at IRO Alfa, and Project Leader at The Boston Consulting Group • BS in Industrial Engineering from Cornell University and MBA from Stanford Graduate School of Business aelizondo@alpek.com Alejandra • 7 Years at Alfa/Alpek Bustamante • Previously held roles in Human Resources, Talent & Culture at Alfa and Axtel IR Manager • BS in International Relations from ITESM abustamante@alpek.com 13

  14. 14

Recommend


More recommend