Dynamic Thresholds and a Summary ROC Curve: Assessing the Prognostic - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dynamic Thresholds and a Summary ROC Curve: Assessing the Prognostic Accuracy of Longitudinal Markers Paramita Saha Chaudhuri Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics Duke University School of Medicine October 6, 2012

1 AISC, 2012 Collaborator Patrick Heagerty University of Washington, Seattle Biostat, Duke University P. Saha Chaudhuri

2 AISC, 2012 Overview • Background ⊲ Example - serial MR-proADM, respiratory tract infection ⊲ Time-dependent ROC • Summary ROC ⊲ Estimation ⊲ Simulation ⊲ Example • Comments Biostat, Duke University P. Saha Chaudhuri

Background

3 AISC, 2012 Example: Adverse Outcome and MR-proADM among lower RTI Prediction of adverse events • N = 1359 patients with severe RTI from 6 tertiary care hospitals in Switzerland • Endpoint: composite adverse outcomes (death, ICU admission, other complications, or recurrent infection Rx antibiotic) • Predictive measurements: ⊲ Cardiovascular biomarker midregion proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) ⊲ Single MR-proADM measurement on admission ⊲ Serial MR-proADM measurements • Goal: validate (added) utility of longitudinal measurements • Hartmann et al. (2012) Biostat, Duke University P. Saha Chaudhuri