Dr. Jerry Parrish Chief Economist & Director of Research, Florida Chamber Foundation jparrish@flfoundation.org Dean Saunders, ALC, CCIM Managing Director, Owner, SVN dean@saundersrealestate.com Gary Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, CPM, CRE, CRRP, FRICS Managing Director, Owner, SVN Gary.Ralston@svn.com Todd Dantzler, CCIM Managing Director & Senior Advisor, SVN todd.dantzler@svn.com Tyler Davis, CPA, MTA Asset Manager & Advisor, SVN Note: the following should not be construed as and should not be relied upon tyler.davis@svn.com as legal or tax advice.
POLLING QUESTION #1 • What is your overall sentiment about the economy for the next 12 months? • Fear • Concern • Cautiously Optimistic • We’ll Recover Fast
OVERVIEW • Florida Economy • Florida Commercial Real Estate • Florida Land
THE FLORIDA 2030 BLUEPRINT 17 TH 10 TH • 39 Goals/125 Strategies
COVID-19 Cases: Updated April 15, 2020, 7 p.m. Florida Florida Cases: 22,519 Hospitalized: 3,249 Total People Tested: 215,521 Increase in Tests: 7,679 Percent Positive: 10.5% Negative Tests: 191,377 Florida Deaths: 614
COVID-19 Case Density: Population per Positive COVID-19 Case Updated April 15, 2020, 7 p.m. Top Densities: 1. Miami-Dade 337 2. Suwannee 548 3. Broward 581 4. Jefferson 648 5. Seminole 649 6. Bradford 806 7. Palm Beach 824 8. Florida 955 9. Collier 972 10. Osceola 1,041 11. Monroe 1,125
Florida Industry Diversification by MSA Diversification Rankings #1 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA #2 Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island MSA #3 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville MSA #4 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-West Palm Beach MSA #5 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford MSA #6 Cape Coral-Ft. Myers MSA #7 Jacksonville MSA #8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA #9 Ocala MSA #10 North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton MSA Data Source: Florida Gulf Coast University, Regional Economic Research Institute. Q3 2019 data
2019 2018 2017 Yearly Job Growth Rates - US, Florida, and Orlando MSA 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Orlamdo MSA 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 US 2003 2002 Florida 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 Year 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10%
There have been 472,682 initial Unemployment Claims Filed in Florida – last 3 weeks Florida Initial Unemployment Claims Numbers March 250,000 228,484 200,000 169,885 150,000 100,000 74,313 50,000 24,59220,08516,17713,47011,60211,901 8,832 6,866 6,802 6,478 9,497 9,706 8,782 7,884 9,338 12,195 5,801 0
GDP Yearly Growth Rate 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1982 1938 2008-09 -5% -1.8% -3.3% -2.6% 2020 -10% estimate -8.0% 1945-47 -15% -13.7% -20% -25% 1930-33 -29.0% -30%
GDP Yearly Growth Rate 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1982 1938 2008-09 -5% -1.8% -3.3% -2.6% 2020 -10% estimate -8.0% 1945-47 -15% -13.7% -20% -25% 1930-33 -29.0% -30%
GDP Yearly Growth Rate 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1982 1938 2008-09 -5% -1.8% -3.3% -2.6% 2020 -10% estimate -8.0% -15% 1945-47 -13.7% -20% 1930-33 -25% -29.0% -30%
Leisure & Hospitality Jobs as a Percent of Total Private-Sector Jobs Florida Average is 16.0% U.S. Average is 13.3% Top 10 Percentages 1. Monroe 41.6% 2. Franklin 31.3% 3. Walton 31.0% 4. Nassau 27.7% 5. Orange 27.5% 6. Osceola 24.6% 7. St. Johns 22.9% 8. Okaloosa 22.8% 9. Flagler 21.5% 10.Bay 21.2% Data Source: BLS. Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW)
FLORIDA ECONOMY & COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE • 5 min COVID-19 Test • 1 of out of every 10 jobs is in Florida • 17 th largest economy in the world • People • Jobs • 65% of layoffs are leisure & hospitality • Industry • Tourism – people have to feel comfortable traveling • Agriculture
FLORIDA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE • Retail • Office • Industrial • Apartment • Other – Hospitality, self storage • Agriculture
FLORIDA TOURISM IMPACTS • When will people feel safe to travel? • Will vacation rentals be allowed after a certain date? • When will Disney, SeaWorld, etc. open? • Importance of summer travel to economies of small beach towns • Sporting Event cancellations • MLB will not seek to be “essential business” in FL • Pauses Spring Training league plan by MLB • Impact on Super Bowl in Tampa? • Tom Brady in Tampa….but empty stadium? • No fan events?
FLORIDA POPULATION CHANGES • Will more people move to Florida in the aftermath of COVID- 19? • More people move to FL from NY, NJ, & CA than anywhere else • Will older citizens seek less dense, more spread out states such as Florida? • Increase in future population growth?
FLORIDA LAND • Impact of Previous Major Events on Land: • Freezes of the 1980’s • Hurricanes • 9/11 & Aftermath • 2008-2009 Recession • Rural Subdivisions/Event Sales
FLORIDA LAND • Farming Implications • More people drinking orange juice • Fewer people eating produce • More purchases at Grocery Stores & less from Restaurants • Supply chain challenges? • Ag land market does not necessarily run parallel to the overall economy • How will the recovery be similar or different compared to these major events? • What opportunities will there be coming out of this?
POLLING QUESTION #2 • What topic do you want to see covered next? • Federal Tax Overview • Identifying Buying Opportunities • Property Management Services • Florida Road Expansion Plans • Opportunity Zone Guide
QUESTIONS? • Dr. Jerry Parrish Chief Economist & Director of Research, Florida Chamber Foundation jparrish@flfoundation.org • Dean Saunders, ALC, CCIM Managing Director, Owner, SVN dean@saundersrealestate.com • Gary Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, CPM, CRE, CRRP, FRICS Managing Director, Owner, SVN Gary.Ralston@svn.com • Todd Dantzler, CCIM For more COVID-19 resources, including prior Managing Director & Senior Advisor, SVN webcast recordings, please visit: todd.dantzler@svn.com • Tyler Davis, CPA, MTA svnsaunders.com/coronavirus Asset Manager & Advisor, SVN tyler.davis@svn.com
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