Discussion on full network model expansion performance Abhishek - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Discussion on full network model expansion performance Abhishek Hundiwale Senior Market Design Engineering Specialist Market Surveillance Committee Meeting General Session February 19, 2015 ,

Full network model accuracy metric • Results – ISO posts the accuracy report by summarizing results on a 3-week rolling average: http://www.caiso.com/Pages/documentsbygroup.aspx ?GroupID=E61CF08C-42B1-4BD9-A9B7- 894FD31EEA39 – More detailed data, hourly by constraint, available to entities that have signed WECC Universal Non- Disclosure Agreement Page 2

Accuracy metric: Review methodology • Metric is calculated daily for the ISO as a whole for all the interties and compares: – Scenario 1: The ISO models external unscheduled flow impacts in the day-ahead – Scenario 2 : The ISO does not model external unscheduled flow impacts in the day-ahead • ISO also analyzes the metric for internal constraints Page 3

DA External Unscheduled Flow Calculations (Same input as the solved day-ahead case) BAA Forecasted BAA Demand DA FNM Topology Planned Outages Net Schedule (Western BAAs Forecast (no BAAs GDFs (Western BAAs Interchange (no and LDFs including ISO) ISO forecast) including ISO) ISO schedules) Power Flow (no ISO NSI, no ISO load, no ISO gen) DA external unscheduled flows per ISO’s inter-tie, per hour (DaExUSF tie,hour ) Page 4

Actual External Unscheduled Flow Calculations BAAs Avg Actual State Estimator Net Schedule FNM Topology BAAs Avg Interchange (no (Western BAAs Actual Load BAAs GDFs ISO schedules) including ISO) and LDFs (no ISO load) Power Flow (no ISO NSI, no ISO load, no ISO gen) Average Actual external unscheduled flows per ISO’s inter-tie per hour (ActExUSF tie,hour ) Page 5

Accuracy Metric Calculations • Two scenarios: 1) ISO models external unscheduled flow impacts in the day-ahead: |DaExUSF tie,hour - ActExUSF tie, hour | 2) ISO does not model external unscheduled flow impacts in the day-ahead, (Da ExUSF tie,hour =0 ): |0 - ActExUSF tie,hour | • The metric compares the sum over all ties and hours of the absolute value of the difference between the day- ahead and actual external unscheduled flows under the two scenarios • The accuracy metric passes if the magnitude of the difference with modeling is less than without: ∑| DaExUSF tie,hour - ActExUSF tie,hour | < ∑|0 - ActExUSF tie,hour |  PASS Page 6

Accuracy Metric (3 – week rolling average) for Interties Accuracy Metric (3 - week rolling) 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Page 7

1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 500000 Constraints for last month Accuracy Metric (3 – week rolling average) for Internal 0 8-Jan-15 9-Jan-15 10-Jan-15 11-Jan-15 12-Jan-15 13-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 15-Jan-15 16-Jan-15 17-Jan-15 18-Jan-15 19-Jan-15 20-Jan-15 21-Jan-15 22-Jan-15 Scenario 1 23-Jan-15 24-Jan-15 25-Jan-15 26-Jan-15 27-Jan-15 Scenario 2 28-Jan-15 29-Jan-15 30-Jan-15 31-Jan-15 1-Feb-15 2-Feb-15 3-Feb-15 4-Feb-15 5-Feb-15 6-Feb-15 7-Feb-15 8-Feb-15 9-Feb-15 10-Feb-15 11-Feb-15 12-Feb-15 13-Feb-15 Page 8 14-Feb-15 15-Feb-15

Accuracy Metric: Update • FNM Metric has passed on all the days except first few days of FNM implementation • Some interties in the north such as PACI failed the individual metric occasionally during first few weeks of implementation, however passing the metric since last month • The main drivers for the FNM metric: – Load Forecast in DA for external BAAs – Net Schedule Interchange (NSI) forecast in DA • Load Forecast: ISO forecasting for 8 external BAAs Page 9

Next Steps • Better load forecast for all other BAAs • NSI forecast in DA: forecast formulation using a similar day approach • Analyze the individual interties when they fail the metric Page 10

Thank you Page 11