David Matkin LeRoy Collins Institute Research Fellow University at - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Debt Obligations in Florida Local Governments David Matkin LeRoy Collins Institute – Research Fellow University at Albany – SUNY – Assistant Professor dmatkin@albany.edu

Introduction  Expand the Attention from Retirement Benefits to other Types of Long-Term Obligations  City and County Long-Term Liabilities  Data from Bloomberg Financial Services  395 Cities and 65 Counties  Unbalanced Panel from 2004 to 2015 (FY)  Two perspectives:  Long-term Liabilities / 2010 Population  Total Assets / Total Liabilities

Key Findings:  Debt obligations decrease over most of the past decade but there was a large increase in debt obligations in 2015.  Cities have larger debt obligations (on the books) than Counties.  There does not appear to be a close relationship between debt obligations and populations growth (2000 to 2010) or population size.  A handful of local governments stand out with high debt obligations (per capita burden and without assets to cover).

LT Debt by Year Governments with > 2,000 population 30000 25000 20000 LT Debt (per capita) 15000 10000 5000 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Years 1

LT Debt by Year Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers 6000 5000 4000 LT Debt (per capita) 3000 2000 1000 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Years 2

Annual Change in LT Debt by Year Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers 1000 Annual Change ($/capita) 500 0 − 500 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Years 3

Annual Change in LT Debt by Year Governments with > 2,000 population & Report in 2015 excludes outliers 1000 Annual Change ($/capita) 500 0 − 500 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Years 4

Composition of Sample Popuation Size (y) and County or City (x) 1.0 > 75K 0.8 25 − 75K 0.6 5 − 25K 0.4 0.2 < 5K 0.0 County City 5

LT Debt by Government Type Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers 5000 4000 LT Debt (per capita) 3000 2000 1000 0 County City Government Type 6

LT Debt by Government Size All Governments excludes outliers 5000 4000 3000 LT Debt 2000 1000 0 5−25K 25−75K < 5K > 75K Population Size 7

Change in LT Debt by Government Size All Governments excludes outliers 400 200 LT Debt 0 − 200 − 400 5−25K 25−75K < 5K > 75K Population Size 8

Change in LT Debt by Government Size All Governments (2014 to 2015) excludes outliers 1000 Change in LT Debt ($/capita) 500 0 − 500 5−25K 25−75K < 5K > 75K Population Size 9

The 30 Largest (Population) Cities 2014 data Gainesville Lakeland Cape Coral Tallahassee Port St. Lucie Miami Beach Orlando Ft. Lauderdale West Palm Beach Jacksonville Hollywood Sunrise Miami Clearwater Palm Coast Pembroke Pines Tampa Davie Miramar St. Petersburg Boynton Beach Palm Bay Boca Raton Miami Gardens Hialeah Deltona Deerfield Beach Plantation Coral Springs Largo 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 LT Debt (per capita) 10

The 30 Largest (Population) Counties 2014 data Miami−Dade Osceola Charlotte St. Johns Martin Broward Collier Sarasota Manatee Bay Polk Palm Beach Seminole Orange Pasco Pinellas Okaloosa St. Lucie Citrus Brevard Hernando Marion Hillsborough Volusia Escambia Lake Clay Alachua Leon Santa Rosa 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 LT Debt (per capita) 11

Cities with the Highest LT Debt Populations > 2,000 2014 data < 5K Oakland Daytona Beach Shores Port St. Joe Longboat Key Bal Harbour 5−25K Palm Beach Marco Island Islamorada, Village of Islands Marathon Panama City Beach Leesburg Cocoa Sanibel Vero Beach St. Augustine Bay Harbor Islands Gulf Breeze Auburndale 25−75K Winter Park Ft. Myers Pensacola > 75K Gainesville Lakeland Cape Coral Tallahassee Port St. Lucie Miami Beach Orlando Ft. Lauderdale West Palm Beach 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 LT Debt (per capita) 12

Counties with the Highest LT Debt Populations > 2,000 2014 data 5−25K Franklin Gulf 25−75K Monroe DeSoto Nassau Walton > 75K Miami−Dade Osceola Charlotte St. Johns Martin Broward Collier Sarasota Manatee Bay Polk Palm Beach Seminole Orange Pasco Pinellas Okaloosa Flagler St. Lucie Citrus Brevard Hernando Marion Hillsborough 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 LT Debt (per capita) 13

The Highest LT Debt Increase in 2015 Cities with Populations > 2,000 2014 & 2015 data < 5K Longboat Key Oakland Bal Harbour Madeira Beach 5−25K Palm Beach Islamorada, Village of Islands St. Pete Beach Venice Vero Beach Fernandina Beach Wilton Manors Temple Terrace 25−75K Coral Gables Ft. Myers Lake Worth Ocala North Miami Beach Hallandale Beach Sarasota Pensacola Delray Beach Daytona Beach > 75K Miami Beach Hollywood Jacksonville Sunrise Miami Gainesville Miramar Pembroke Pines 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 12000 LT Debt Increase ($/capita) 14

The Highest LT Debt Increase in 2015 Counties with Populations > 2,000 2014 & 2015 data 5−25K Glades Gulf Franklin Madison Hamilton Liberty 25−75K Monroe Walton Hardee Nassau DeSoto Levy Gadsden Putnam Okeechobee > 75K Miami−Dade Flagler Osceola Sumter St. Johns Palm Beach Highlands Sarasota Hillsborough Manatee Hernando Okaloosa Collier Pasco Charlotte 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 LT Debt Increase ($/capita) 15

L T Debt per Capita − y axis Population Siz e − x axis 2014 data Counts 8000 6000 6 5 y 4000 4 3 2000 2 1 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 1e+05 x 16

L T Debt per Capita − y axis Population Gro wth in % − x axis 2014 data Counts 8000 9 8 6000 7 y 6 4000 5 4 2000 3 2 1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 x 17

Debt Ratio by Year Governments with > 2,000 population 4000 3000 Debt Ratio 2000 1000 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Years 18

Debt Ratio by Year Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers 12 10 8 Debt Ratio 6 4 2 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Years 19

Annual Change in Debt Ratio by Year Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers 2 1 Annual Change in Debt Ratio 0 − 1 − 2 − 3 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Years 20

Annual Change in Debt Ratio by Year Governments with > 2,000 population & Report in 2015 excludes outliers 2 1 Annual Change in Debt Ratio 0 − 1 − 2 − 3 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 21 Years

Debt Ratio by Government Type Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers 10 8 Debt Ratio 6 4 2 County City Government Type 22

Debt Ratio by Government Size All Governments excludes outliers 30 25 20 Debt Ratio 15 10 5 0 5−25K 25−75K < 5K > 75K Population Size 23

Change in Debt Ratio by Government Size All Governments excludes outliers 2 1 Debt Ratio 0 − 1 − 2 5−25K 25−75K < 5K > 75K Population Size 24

Change in Debt Ratio by Government Size All Governments (2014 to 2015) excludes outliers 2 0 Change in Debt Ratio − 2 − 4 5−25K 25−75K < 5K > 75K Population Size 25

The 30 Largest (Population) Cities 2014 data Largo Boca Raton Plantation Clearwater Miami Beach Coral Springs Tampa Palm Coast St. Petersburg Sunrise Tallahassee Boynton Beach Miramar Deerfield Beach Miami Gardens West Palm Beach Deltona Davie Ft. Lauderdale Lakeland Orlando Port St. Lucie Pembroke Pines Palm Bay Cape Coral Hialeah Hollywood Gainesville Miami Jacksonville −5 0 5 10 Debt Ratio 26

The 30 Largest (Population) Counties 2014 data Hillsborough Marion Citrus Santa Rosa Polk Alachua Clay Orange Hernando Collier Leon Manatee Pinellas St. Johns Pasco Sarasota Escambia Charlotte Seminole Volusia St. Lucie Okaloosa Martin Lake Brevard Palm Beach Osceola Broward Bay Miami−Dade −5 0 5 10 Debt Ratio 27

L T Debt per Capita − y axis Debt Ratio − x axis 2014 data Counts 8000 8 6000 7 6 y 4000 5 4 3 2000 2 1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 x 28

L T Debt per Capita − y axis Debt Ratio − x axis 2014 data Counts 8000 9 8 6000 7 y 6 4000 5 4 2000 3 2 1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 x 29

Debt Ratio vs. LT Debt Per Capita 30 Largest Cities Gainesville 15000 LT Debt (per capita) 10000 Lakeland Cape Coral 5000 Tallahassee Port St. Lucie Miami Beach Orlando Ft. Lauderdale West Palm Beach Jacksonville Hollywood Sunrise Miami Palm Coast Clearwater Pembroke Pines Tampa Davie Miramar St. Petersburg Boynton Beach Palm Bay Boca Raton Miami Gardens Hialeah Deltona Deerfield Beach Plantation Coral Springs 0 Largo 2 3 4 5 6 Debt Ratio 30

Debt Ratio vs. LT Debt Per Capita 30 Largest Counties Miami−Dade 6000 5000 LT Debt (per capita) 4000 3000 2000 Osceola Charlotte St. Johns Martin Broward Collier Sarasota Manatee Bay 1000 Polk Palm Beach Seminole Pasco Orange Pinellas Okaloosa St. Lucie Citrus Brevard Hernando Marion Hillsborough Volusia Escambia Lake Clay Alachua Leon Santa Rosa 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 Debt Ratio 31

Thank you !! Questions & Suggestions ?? 35