CVF milestones and long-term plans CVF Leaders Retreat – August 2016 Tagaytay
Overall Emission Situation Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century
Emissions Milestones Global peaking and Rapid decline before 2020 Around 40% global reduction by 2030 Net zero emissions preferably Around mid-century, latest by 2070 Negative emissions thereafter Joeri Rogelj – 13 January 2016 Source: Rogelj et al. (2015) Environm. Research Letters
Overall Political Situation • world is suffering from an economic and security crisis • Public around the world are looking for a new and different vision • People aspire for security, economic development, and prosperity • What is new on the table right now is too different and scary • On the climate front, Paris was a moment of hope, and provided a vision • the Paris momentum is still hanging around, but drowning in the noise • very unlikely that world leaders will be able to provide the same political attention to climate • To many, it seems as if what happens at the international level is completely separated from the national level
Triggering rapid decline Shifting finance flows – mandates ‘shifting the trillions’ from fossil fuels to RE reform agenda in other venues like IFIs / G20 / national budgets / creating the right investment environment Long-term strategies – by 2020 all countries should submit 2050 decarbonisation plans Facilitative Dialogue / Global Stocktake – 2016/2018 is the first moment to show that Paris mechanisms work Pre-2020 action – UNFCCC process, SLCP, ICAO/IMO, non-state stakeholders Climate proof UN program – enables richer discussion on if UN is fit for purpose to manage the impacts of climate change
Long-term development strategies (LTDS) Importance • A very important developmental tool for all developing countries • The most direct way to link Agenda2030 with UNFCCC • Can demonstrate new ambition for the 2018 moment • Can assist in shifting financial flows • Renewed strong political momentum behind LTDS • Will be an important part of the G20 agenda in 2017 How to develop them • It is a development plan, and not a climate plan • It is a national vision, politically owned and not a technical exercise • Should be developed through inclusive national dialogue
Political Milestones - 2016: Montreal Protocol, ICAO, IMO, COP22 - CVF: Keep the long-term vision of Paris alive - 2017: G20, COP23 (entry into force) - CVF/V20: Push for ambitious LTDS - 2018: IPCC 1.5C report, COP24 - CVF: Make 2018 a 1.5C year, provide political momentum - 2020: New NDCs - CVF: Present new NDCs and LTDS in line with 1.5C goal - 2023: Ambition mechanism (5 year review of NDCs and LTDS) - CVF: Play key role in the development of mechanism
Thank You
Recommend
More recommend
