SECOND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EMERGENCE OF AFRICA (ICEA-II) Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire « Cross-sectional analysis of case studies of selected African countries’ experience towards emergence: Stock-taking, lessons learned, and way forward » BY A BD O U L AY E M A R D I E Y E A S S I STANT A D M I NI STRATOR A N D R EG I O N AL D I R ECTO R U N D P A F R I CA
A. Background A.1 Rationale of ICEA-I Path A 10+ % Emergence trend Agenda 2030 Two lost era MDG era Agenda 2063 development decades Hi5s Path B 5% Y (GDP) Present Trend Path C 3% g(Y) = 5.1% Commodity price bust trend g(Y) = 1.7% C (consumption) = 1/3 (Growing middle class) I (investment) = 1/3 (Better governance) X-M (trade) = 1/3 (Commodity price boom) T 2030 1980 2000 2015 1 / 16
A. Background A.2 Emergence Path: Human development and poverty reduction tracks Agenda 2030 Two lost Development-enhancing MDG era Agenda 2063 era development decades power of growth Hi5s |e|>1 e =0.264 e =0.328 Radical policies for e= elasticity inclusiveness needed Human Development e =-1.237 e =-0.522 |e|>3 Growth is Not sufficiently inclusive poverty compared to: East Asia & Pacific -2.48 Latin America & Caribbean -3.08 Eastern Europe & Western Asia -4.22 t 2030 1990 2000 2015 2 / 16
A. Background A.3 ICEA-I Model • A clear and shared vision • Equipped & strong institutional capacity • Attract investment to key sectors Developmental state • Basic socio-economic services • Corrupt free state Steady state • Industrialization of • Conducive climate for business inclusive • Changes in production Strong & competitive financial & banking system • Technology & innovative driven economy and & • Green economy Consumption patterns sustainable • Regional integration • Expansive tax base/revenue development • Improving rural incomes Human • Creating social safety nets & cash transfers • development An education system that improves attitude & behavior • Health planning systems • Urbanization 3 / 16 Adapted from Uganda case study
A. Background A.4 Analysis of ICEA-I Model Analysis of emergence with a focus on 13 case study countries out of 27 countries on emergence plans Morocco Cabo Verde Ethiopia Senegal Côte d’Ivoire Equatorial Guinea Kenya Uganda Rwanda Gabon Tanzania Mauritius Criteria for selection: (i) Have emergence plan Countries in Countries Countries green (ii) Regional consideration on on are case study emergence emergence (iii) Development context: SIDS/LLDCs countries plans plans South Africa (iv) Resource/non-resource dependence 4 / 16
B. Typologies B.1 Typologies of Emergence Paths Lessons learned Kinked path Waves path Inflexion path Senegal Côte d’Ivoire Gabon Mauritius Rwanda Kenya Cabo Verde (N.B. Sierra Leone, Guinea, Uganda and Liberia before Ebola) Ethiopia t t t i.v. Sustained and deepened i. Re-activation of under-utilized v. Activation of new engines and excess capacities reforms until tipping point for strategies of growth every cycle inflexion is reached ii. Substantial improvement in of 10 to 15 years productivity vi. Continuous improvement of iii. Strengthened resilience competitiveness vii. Leadership foresight and traction 5 / 16
C. Strategies Strategies and Policies of Emergence (Critical success factors: lessons, challenges and way forward) I. Macroeconomic policies II. Structural economic transformation policies III. Social and human development policies IV. Governance and institutional policies 6 / 16
C. Strategies Strategies and Policies of Emergence C.1 Macroeconomic stability …BUT need to be sustained External� External� debt� debt� stock� stock� (%� (%� GNI),� GNI),� average� average� 2010-2015� 2010-2015� Tax� Tax� revenue� revenue� (%� (%� of� of� GDP),� GDP),� 2010-2014� 2010-2014� 1. 1. 93.57� 93.57� SAO� SAO� TOME� TOME� AND� AND� PRINCIPE� PRINCIPE� 80.08� 80.08� 76.10� 76.10� LESOTHO� LESOTHO� 42.50� 42.50� Expanding Expanding ZIMBABWE� ZIMBABWE� 69.42� 69.42� ALGERIA� ALGERIA� 35.79� 35.79� 63.46� 63.46� NAMIBIA� NAMIBIA� 30.92� 30.92� GAMBIA,� GAMBIA,� THE� THE� 60.77� 60.77� fiscal space fiscal space 57.50� 57.50� SEYCHELLES� SEYCHELLES� 28.51� 28.51� 2. 2. 7. 7. 56.97� 56.97� SOMALIA� SOMALIA� SOUTH� SOUTH� AFRICA� AFRICA� 25.66� 25.66� 47.80� 47.80� BOTSWANA� BOTSWANA� 25.12� 25.12� ERITREA� ERITREA� 45.25� 45.25� 18%=>24% 18%=>24% Improved Improved Improved Improved 44.78� 44.78� MOROCCO� MOROCCO� 23.06� 23.06� GUINEA� GUINEA� 41.12� 41.12� TUNISIA� TUNISIA� 20.82� 20.82� 39.74� 39.74� fiscal fiscal external debt external debt SWAZILAND� SWAZILAND� 19.96� 19.96� COTE� COTE� D'IVOIRE� D'IVOIRE� 38.88� 38.88� 38.70� 38.70� MOZAMBIQUE� MOZAMBIQUE� 19.58� 19.58� account account LIBERIA� LIBERIA� 37.03� 37.03� SENEGAL� SENEGAL� 18.89� 18.89� sustainability sustainability 36.95� 36.95� MAURITIUS� MAURITIUS� 18.18� 18.18� MOROCCO� MOROCCO� 35.90� 35.90� balance balance TOGO� TOGO� 17.19� 17.19� 35.31� 35.31� …BUT …BUT AFRICA� AFRICA� 34.73� 34.73� SAO� SAO� TOME� TOME� AND� AND� PRINCIPE� PRINCIPE� 16.66� 16.66� 34.39� 34.39� ANGOLA� ANGOLA� 16.34� 16.34� IMF� IMF� Threshold� Threshold� CENTRAL� CENTRAL� AFRICAN� AFRICAN� REPUBLIC� REPUBLIC� 33.12� 33.12� (50-75%)� (50-75%)� KENYA� KENYA� 15.76� 15.76� 32.94� 32.94� CONGO,� CONGO,� REP.� REP.� 32.05� 32.05� SUB-SAHARAN� SUB-SAHARAN� AFRICA� AFRICA� 15.44� 15.44� 31.32� 31.32� BENIN� BENIN� 15.04� 15.04� TANZANIA� TANZANIA� 30.45� 30.45� BURKINA� BURKINA� FASO� FASO� 14.89� 14.89� UNCTAD� UNCTAD� Threshold� Threshold� 30.12� 30.12� Scale symbol Scale symbol MADAGASCAR� MADAGASCAR� 29.38� 29.38� MALAWI� MALAWI� 14.89� 14.89� (24%)� (24%)� 3. 3. 28.03� 28.03� 6. 6. ZAMBIA� ZAMBIA� 14.70� 14.70� ETHIOPIA� ETHIOPIA� 27.58� 27.58� GHANA� GHANA� 14.13� 14.13� 27.23� 27.23� COTE� COTE� D'IVOIRE� D'IVOIRE� 13.70� 13.70� MALI� MALI� 25.49� 25.49� Relatively Relatively Robust net Robust net 25.48� 25.48� EGYPT,� EGYPT,� ARAB� ARAB� REP.� REP.� 13.33� 13.33� BURUNDI� BURUNDI� 25.27� 25.27� RWANDA� RWANDA� 13.02� 13.02� stable prices stable prices 24.44� 24.44� external external MALI� MALI� 12.97� 12.97� ANGOLA� ANGOLA� 23.74� 23.74� 23.72� 23.72� TANZANIA� TANZANIA� 12.55� 12.55� …BUT …BUT inflows inflows MALAWI� MALAWI� 22.91� 22.91� UGANDA� UGANDA� 11.37� 11.37� 22.59� 22.59� MADAGASCAR� MADAGASCAR� 9.96� 9.96� BURKINA� BURKINA� FASO� FASO� 22.54� 22.54� 22.41� 22.41� SIERRA� SIERRA� LEONE� LEONE� 9.10� 9.10� RWANDA� RWANDA� 21.71� 21.71� CENTRAL� CENTRAL� AFRICAN� AFRICAN� REPUBLIC� REPUBLIC� 8.92� 8.92� 19.57� 19.57� 4. 4. CONGO,� CONGO,� DEM.� DEM.� REP.� REP.� 8.77� 8.77� 18.18� 18.18� UGANDA� UGANDA� 5. 5. ETHIOPIA� ETHIOPIA� 8.69� 8.69� 15.97� 15.97� BOTSWANA� BOTSWANA� 15.70� 15.70� CONGO,� CONGO,� REP.� REP.� 8.63� 8.63� Improving Improving 15.40� 15.40� NIGERIA� NIGERIA� 1.78� 1.78� SWAZILAND� SWAZILAND� 12.71� 12.71� Improved Improved LIBERIA� LIBERIA� 0.26� 0.26� 4.69� 4.69� gross gross ALGERIA� ALGERIA� 3.05� 3.05� current current 0.00� 0.00� 5.00� 10.00� 15.00� 20.00� 25.00� 30.00� 35.00� 40.00� 45.00� 5.00� 10.00� 15.00� 20.00� 25.00� 30.00� 35.00� 40.00� 45.00� 0.00� 0.00� 20.00� 20.00� 40.00� 40.00� 60.00� 60.00� 80.00� 80.00� 100.00� 100.00� national national account account Lesson : need to meet the UNCTAD 24% threshold Lesson : need to watch out for savings BUT savings BUT balance balance still low still low for sustainable funding of development debt sustainability 7 / 16
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