Covid 19 Performance March 15 to April 21st 2020 Dr.Andrew Black, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Covid 19 Performance March 15 to April 21st 2020 Dr.Andrew Black, Digit Ltd, Brunel Business School, GPI April 2020 , Digit Ltd & Brunel Business School 1

Covid 19 Situation Report March/April 20th 2020: by Dr. Andrew. Black Digit Ltd & GPI London 2

Introduction • These slides provide a global overview of the development of COVID 19, the number of cases, the number of fatalities, and fatality rates. • These are shown for 7 main regions. • Data is from John Hopkins Covid data archive Digit Ltd & GPI 3

Broad Conclusions I • March saw the explosion of Covid out of its original area, China, and into Europe. • Since then Covid has infected the USA. The US now has the largest number of cases of a single country. • The first week of April saw a substantial deterioration in fatality rates. This is largely a function of the rate of infection, and the type of patients infected • Infection rates are higher than originally expected, with a r (reproduction rate) of between 2.5 and 3.2 (Imperial College). • The main centres continue to be Europe , N.America. And China. Digit Ltd & GPI London 4

Broad conclusions II • Regions such as Africa, S.Asia and S.America still have small numbers of Covid19 patients • Their numbers are growing very fast, • The rate of increase in the number of cases is starting to fall in some regions (Europe, N.America) • The absolute number of new cases continues to rise, or is stabilizing at a high level Digit Ltd & GPI London 5

Broad Conclusions III: Fatalities • There are substantial differences in the performance of fatalities. The worst performing countries are Spain, Italy, Britain and France. • Some countries have markedly better fatality performance, particularly Germany, Finland, S.Korea, Taiwan and Singapore • This is due to a combination of better social control methods (including testing), and partly due to better legacy medical systems with better equipment levels and standards Digit Ltd & GPI London 6

Covid Stages: Suggested Sequence • The disease is spreading out from its ground zero, China/Hubei province/Wuhan. • Stage 1: Few cases , mostly contained. Few fatalities. Virus appears to be under control and is “trapped”. Person to person transmission relatively low • Stage 2: Escape. Covid infects others outside of original ar eas. Infection clustes occur in densely populated cities and areas with many vulnerable people (the elderly and those with existing medical conditions). Very rapid growth occurs. Daily growth rate in new cases 30% plus per day • Stage 3: Lock downs and introduction of other social measures. Infection rates come down as a proportion of total cases. However, in absolute number the daily increase can still be rising • Stage 4: Stabilization . Lock down starts to work. More testing and protective equipment reduces cases/fatalities. There is still some overall growth in cases, fatalities stabilize • Stage 5: Declines in the number of new cases . Declines in the number of fatalities. Probably accompanied by reduction in severity of social control measures. • Stage 6: Relaxation of social control and distancing measures. Introduction of measures to proect the vulnerable. Danger of a further second or tertiary infection wave. Digit Ltd & GPI London 7

Overall Situation April 21 st 2020 • 2.469 million Covid Cases world wide (0.032% of the global population) • 169,961 fatalities • A fatality rate of 6.9 % - rising steadily • Significant variation in fatality rates: Digit Ltd & GPI London 8

High Fatality Countries Fatalities % Confirmed Cases Apr 06 and Apr 20 Highest Fatality Rate Countries Apr 06 and Apr 20th Compared Fatality Rate Apr 06th Case-Fatality 20 Apr Honduras Antigua and Barbuda Mali Colombia Bangladesh Zimbabwe United Kingdom Trinidad and Tobago Togo Syria Sweden Sudan Spain San Marino Netherlands Mexico Liberia Italy Indonesia Hungary Honduras Guyana France Egypt Congo (Kinshasa) Belgium Bahamas Antigua and Barbuda Algeria Digit Ltd & GPI London 9 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%

High Fatality Countries (Death traps) • Many of them have fatality rates over double the global average • European countries perform badly – higher proportion of elderly patients ? • List is not stable. During April most European countries in this group performed worse • Some developing countries dropped out of this list, e.g. Bangladesh, Colombia • Most of the new entrants are from outside of Europe. Digit Ltd & GPI London 10

Low Fatality Countries (Less that 25% of the global fatality average):A varied list . • Australia • Some are at early stages • Israel • Some have better social control systems • Chile • Some have poor records • Kuwait • AsiaPac countries well • Latvia represented. • Malaysia • Experience with SARS • New Zealand and MERS acted as a • Russia wake up call. • Singapore • Taiwan • Thailand Digit Ltd & GPI London 11

During March shift in centre of Gravity away from AsiaPac, towards Europe & N.America REGIONAL SHARE COVID CASES • A big rise in share of MARCH/APRILS 2020 60.0% N.America. • Europe remains the hot 50.0% spot: its relative share declined slightly in early 40.0% April Share March 15 30.0% Share March 31 • AsiaPac share fell steadily Share April 20 • Numbers in Africa and 20.0% S.Asia still low, rising 10.0% very rapidly 0.0% s.Asia Europe MENA AFRICA S.AMERICA CIS ASIAPAC N.AMERICA Digit Ltd & GPI London 12

Fatalities lag the new cases: Europe still the main centre for fatalities REGIONAL SHARE COVID FATALITIES MARCH/APRILS 2020 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% Share March 15 40.00% Share March 31 Share April 20 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% s.Asia Europe MENA AFRICA S.AMERICA CIS ASIAPAC N.AMERICA Digit Ltd & GPI London 13

After initial high volatility, daily growth rates of new cases settling down AsiaPac cases still growing 60.00% Daily Compound Growth Rates COVID cases by Region: Major Regions Europe MENA ASIAPAC N.AMERICA 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% CIS Eur 10.00% N.Amer AsiaPac 0.00% Digit Ltd & GPI London 14

Daily growth rates in higher income regions are decelerating • Daily Growth rates of new cases are falling • They are still in the region of 5% per day, which is still a high rate • This will keep pressure on health systems Digit Ltd & GPI London 15

Daily growth in new Cases around 10% in lower income regions 60.00% Daily Compound Growth Rates COVID cases by Lower Income Regions s.Asia MENA AFRICA S.AMERICA CIS 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Digit Ltd & GPI London 16

Daily growth rates in new cases now higher in the lower income regions • Still some volatility in the growth rates • Unclear whether the lock down measures are working. Many countries still at stages 1 and 2 of the cycle Digit Ltd & GPI London 17

Number of New Cases Still Growing Very Fast. Between 20 and 30k per day in Europe and N.America. On the ground the crisis persists DAILY INCREASE IN COVID CASES BY REGION MARCH/APRIL 2020 90000 80000 70000 60000 s.Asia Europe 50000 MENA AFRICA 40000 S.AMERICA 30000 CIS 20000 ASIAPAC N.AMERICA 10000 0 17-Mar-20 18-Mar-20 19-Mar-20 20-Mar-20 21-Mar-20 22-Mar-20 23-Mar-20 24-Mar-20 25-Mar-20 26-Mar-20 27-Mar-20 28-Mar-20 29-Mar-20 30-Mar-20 31-Mar-20 01-Apr-20 02-Apr-20 03-Apr-20 04-Apr-20 05-Apr-20 06-Apr-20 07-Apr-20 08-Apr-20 09-Apr-20 10-Apr-20 11-Apr-20 12-Apr-20 13-Apr-20 14-Apr-20 15-Apr-20 16-Apr-20 17-Apr-20 18-Apr-20 19-Apr-20 20-Apr-20 Digit Ltd & GPI London 18

Crisis severity unequal around the world • Europe and N.America are both experiencing around 30k new cases per day • Covid 19 has essentially “escaped” in these regions. • Their experience very differnt from that of AsiaPac (China) • Lower income regions are experiencing growth in new cases less than 10k per day • There are signs that the absolute number of new cases is still accelerating in CIS and S.America. Digit Ltd & GPI London 19

AsiaPac eclipsed by Europe and N.America in terms of Share of Covid Fatalities REGIONAL SHARE COVID FATALITIES MARCH/APRILS 2020 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% Share March 15 40.00% Share March 31 Share April 20 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% s.Asia Europe MENA AFRICA S.AMERICA CIS ASIAPAC N.AMERICA Digit Ltd & GPI London 20

Covid Fatalities (mid April 2020) • Europe the global hot spot, followed by N.America • AsiaPac and MENA shares are falling steeply • S.America, S.Asia & CIS likely to be entering accelerating growth phase • Africa may be the last continent to experience rapid increase in Covid cases & fatalities • Fatality numbers lag the number of new cases Digit Ltd & GPI London 21