CONFLICT Syed Mansoob Murshed ISS-Erasmus University & - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

INEQUALITY AND INTERNAL CONFLICT Syed Mansoob Murshed ISS-Erasmus University & Coventry University, UK Murshed@iss.nl Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 1

INTERNAL CONFLICT AND UNDER-DEVELOPMENT  This topic has received a great deal of attention recently:  Development Community  Conflict Perpetuates Poverty.  Poverty makes civil war more likely  Strategic Studies Community post cold war  Failed States  Complex Humanitarian Crises: military interventions and refugee influxes Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 2

Ergo Poverty Alleviation State Building Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 3

Causes of Conflict 21 st Century Aristotle’s Politics Avariciousness Greed or opportunity State’s Incompetence Weak State Capacity Inequality Grievance Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 4

GREED: Collier and associates  A Motivation akin to Banditry  Desire to control Natural Resource Exports  Found not to be robust to different definitions of natural resource dependence or abundance  Better at predicting conflict duration  Focus should be on lootable resources: oil/gas and alluvial diamonds Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 5

Greed: Poverty-Conflict Trap  Nuanced version of greed:  Contextualised to where poverty is endemic, because:  Poverty makes soldiering a less unattractive livelihood strategy  Civil war perpetuates poverty and vice versa Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 6

Weak State Capacity  The State’s Ability to:  Coerce: forcefully deter rebellion  Cajole: Provide Security and Public Goods  The above require resources; otherwise security and public goods are ‘privatised’.  Civil war may hamper state fiscal capacity  Weak fiscal institutions  Reliance on aid and resource rents  Low tax/GDP ratio Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 7

Both greed and weak state capacity arguments ignore  Grievance producing INEQUALITY and DISCRIMINATION. WHY?  Empirical: Data on between group inequality (not just socio-economic class) is hard to come by and therefore ignored.  Theoretical: Grievances are infinite, ubiquitous and omnipresent. Rebellion has to be feasible and financially viable.  Argued earlier by Charles Tilly as mobilization theory. Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 8

Nature of Inequality  Would not matter if there is no uncertainty and a level playing ground for life chances.  Good Inequality (of outcome):  Human beings are incentivised by rewards and punishments; ergo, too much inequality can discourage effort (not always pecuniary).  BAD Inequality:  Categorical-Durable Inequalities (Charles Tilly)  Inequalities of Opportunity (John Roemer) Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 9

Bad Inequalities are hard to Shift:  What is harder to shift?  Income Inequality  Or an inequality based upon systematic discrimination of a group  Inequalities of Opportunity  Disadvantaged socio-economic background  Employment discrimination: race, religion, ethnicity  Political exclusion of certain ethnicities Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 10

Two Non-Mutually exclusive Developments in Economics  The Economics of Identity  Behavioural Economics Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 11

Individual and Group Identity  Individuals identify with groups  If their group is disadvantaged even if the individual is not  They act according to group norms:  In some circumstances errant individuals can be brought back to conformity with group norms, particularly in closely knit poor communities Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 12

Behavioural Economics:  An individual’s preferences are not exclusively innate, but are a product of life experiences, history and a variety of psycho-social phenomena  People dislike ultimata  Prefer fairness even if personally worse off Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 13

Conflict and Inequality  Individuals may choose to participate in group causes, and even fight.  What is salient in this regard? Two concepts:  Relative Deprivation (Ted Gurr): individuals who are left behind  Horizontal Inequality (Frances Stewart): inequalities between groups based on ethnicity, caste, class, religion  Economic dimension  Political dimension Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 14

Growth and Inequality  Growth can increase both poverty and inequality, as is common now.  Although average income rises poverty can rise because it is so unequally distributed. Inequalities of opportunity intensify  Growth can reduce poverty but raise inequality  Some countries reduce both (Brazil recently)  Truly pro-poor growth reduces both inequality and poverty Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 15

Globalisation and Conflict  Increased globalisation (more international trade) worsens the distribution of income  Policies to foster globalisation (increased inward investment, say) can lead to wage compression  Both the above can cause relative deprivation if say the income share of the top 10% rise at the expense of the bottom 40%. Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 16

New Forms of Conflict  Mass protest  Isolated insurgencies in economically ‘successful’ democracies like (Maoist insurgencies) in India  Rising sectarian violence Murshed, WIDER, 17 September 2015 17