Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity, Big Data Science, and Complexity Introduction Happiness Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking Discrete Days, St. Michael’s College, 2011 The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Peter Dodds Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk Department of Mathematics & Statistics References Center for Complex Systems Vermont Advanced Computing Center University of Vermont 1 of 83
Complexity, Big Outline Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Complexity Introduction Introduction Emergence Universality Emergence Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Universality Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Symmetry Breaking Measuring The Big Theory Happiness Tweetage Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Mechanical Turk Nutshell References Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 2 of 83
Complexity, Big Definitions Data Science, and Happiness A meaningful definition of a Complex System: Complexity Introduction Emergence ◮ Distributed possibly networked system of many Universality Symmetry Breaking interrelated parts with no centralized control The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & exhibiting emergent behavior—‘More is Different’ [2] Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness A few optional features: Tweetage Mechanical Turk ◮ Nonlinear relationships References ◮ Presence of feedback loops ◮ Being open or driven ◮ Presence of memory ◮ Modular (nested)/multiscale structure ◮ Opaque boundaries 4 of 83
Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Examples of Complex Systems: Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking ◮ human societies ◮ animal societies The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks ◮ cells ◮ disease ecologies Nutshell Measuring ◮ organisms ◮ brains Happiness Tweetage ◮ power systems ◮ social insects Mechanical Turk References ◮ weather systems ◮ geophysical systems ◮ ecosystems ◮ the world wide web ◮ i.e., everything that’s interesting... 5 of 83
Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Relevant fields: Introduction Emergence Universality ◮ Medical ◮ Cognitive ◮ Physics Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Sciences Sciences Revolution: Big Data & ◮ Economics Complex Networks ◮ Systems Nutshell ◮ Biology ◮ Sociology Measuring Engineering Happiness ◮ Ecology ◮ Psychology Tweetage ◮ Computer Mechanical Turk ◮ Geociences ◮ Information References Science ◮ Geography Sciences ◮ . . . ◮ i.e., everything that’s interesting... 6 of 83
Complexity, Big Complexity Manifesto: Data Science, and Happiness 1. Systems are ubiquitous and systems matter. 2. Consequently, much of science is about Complexity Introduction understanding how pieces dynamically fit together. Emergence Universality 3. 1700 to 2000 = Golden Age of Reductionism. Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory ◮ Atoms!, sub-atomic particles, DNA, genes, people, ... Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks 4. Understanding and creating systems (including new Nutshell Measuring ‘atoms’) is the greater part of science and Happiness engineering. Tweetage Mechanical Turk 5. Universality: systems with quantitatively different References micro details exhibit qualitatively similar macro behavior. 6. Computing advances make the Science of Complexity possible: 6.1 We can measure and record enormous amounts of data, research areas continue to transition from data scarce to data rich. 6.2 We can simulate, model, and create complex systems in extraordinary detail. 7 of 83
Complexity, Big Data Science, and Data, Data, Everywhere—the Economist, Feb 25, 2010 ( ⊞ ) Happiness Big Data Science: Complexity Introduction ◮ 2013: year traffic on Emergence Universality Internet estimate to reach Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory 2/3 Zettabytes Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks (1ZB = 10 3 EB = 10 6 PB = Nutshell Measuring 10 9 TB) Happiness Tweetage ◮ Large Hadron Collider: 40 Mechanical Turk TB/second. References ◮ 2016—Large Synoptic Survey Telescope: 140 TB every 5 days. ◮ Exponential growth: ◮ Facebook: ∼ 100 billion ∼ 60% per year. photos ◮ Twitter: ∼ 5 billion tweets 8 of 83
No really, that’s a lot of data
天安門 Complexity, Big Big Data—Culturomics: Data Science, and Happiness “Quantitative analysis of culture using millions of digitized books” by Michel et al., Science, 2011 [11] Complexity Introduction Emergence E F A B Universality Median frequency (log) Symmetry Breaking Half life: 73 yrs The Big Theory Frequency Revolution: Big Data & Doubling time: 4 yrs Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk E F References E F Median frequency http://www.culturomics.org/ ( ⊞ ) Google Books ngram viewer ( ⊞ ) 10 of 83
Complexity, Big Homo narrativus: Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell ◮ Mechanisms = Measuring Evolution equations, Happiness Tweetage algorithms, stories, ... Mechanical Turk References ◮ Rollover zing: “Also, all financial analysis. And, more directly, D&D.” http://xkcd.com/904/ ( ⊞ ) 11 of 83
Complexity, Big Basic Science ≃ Describe + Explain: Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Lord Kelvin (possibly): Introduction Emergence Universality ◮ “To measure is to know.” Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory ◮ “If you cannot measure it, you Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell cannot improve it.” Measuring Happiness Tweetage Bonus: Mechanical Turk References ◮ “X-rays will prove to be a hoax.” ◮ “There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now, All that remains is more and more precise measurement.” 12 of 83
Complexity, Big Data Science, and Emergence: Happiness Tornadoes, financial collapses, human emotion aren’t found in water molecules, dollar bills, or carbon atoms. Complexity Introduction Emergence Examples: Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory ◮ Fundamental particles → Life, the Universe, and Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Everything Measuring Happiness ◮ Genes → Organisms Tweetage Mechanical Turk ◮ Brains → Thoughts References ◮ People → The Web ◮ People → Religion ◮ People → Language, and rules in language (e.g., -ed, -s). ◮ ? → time; ? → gravity; ? → reality. “The whole is more than the sum of its parts” –Aristotle 14 of 83
Complexity, Big Data Science, and Toast + Capers + Almonds = Something Different: Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 15 of 83
Complexity, Big Emergence—Mechanism Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Thomas Schelling ( ⊞ ) (Economist/Nobelist): Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness ◮ “Micromotives and Tweetage Mechanical Turk Macrobehavior” [14] References ◮ Segregation ◮ Wearing hockey helmets ◮ Seating choices [youtube] ( ⊞ ) 16 of 83
Complexity, Big Reductionism Data Science, and Happiness ◮ Complex Systems enthusiasts often decry Complexity Introduction reductionist approaches . . . Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking ◮ But reductionism seems to be misunderstood. The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & ◮ Reductionist techniques can explain weak Complex Networks Nutshell emergence (e.g., phase transitions). Measuring Happiness ◮ ‘A Miracle Occurs’ explains strong emergence. Tweetage Mechanical Turk ◮ But: maybe miracle should be interpreted as an References inscrutable yet real mechanism that cannot be simply described. Gulp. ◮ Listen to Steve Strogatz and Hod Lipson (Cornell) in the last piece on Radiolab’s show ‘Limits’ (51:40): http://blogs.wnyc.org/radiolab/2010/04/ 05/limits/ 17 of 83
Complexity, Big The emergence of taste: Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence ◮ Molecules → Ingredients → Taste/Nutrition/Health Universality Symmetry Breaking ◮ See Michael Pollan’s article on nutritionism ( ⊞ ) in the The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & New York Times, January 28, 2007. Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References nytimes.com ◮ See also: bumblebees. 18 of 83
Complexity, Big Limits to what is possible: Data Science, and Happiness Universality ( ⊞ ): Complexity Introduction Emergence ◮ The property that the macroscopic aspects of a Universality Symmetry Breaking system do not depend sensitively on the system’s The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & details. Complex Networks Nutshell ◮ Key figure: Leo Kadanoff ( ⊞ ). Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk Examples: References ◮ The Central Limit Theorem: 1 e − ( x − µ ) 2 / 2 σ 2 d x . P ( x ; µ, σ ) d x = √ 2 πσ ◮ Nature of phase transitions in statistical mechanics. ◮ Navier Stokes equation for fluids. 20 of 83
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