Complement the previous presentation by setting out the scope of - PDF document

12/9/16 AFRICAN FUTURES Jakkie Cilliers Institute for Security Studies jcilliers@issafrica.org @jakkiecilliers @ISSAfrica APPROACH Complement the previous presentation by setting out the scope of potential futures for Africa and the sub-regions in the UKMoD report to 2045, using an optimistic Africa Rising and pessimistic Politics of the Belly alternative. These are framed around a Current Path (Base Case) forecast. Conclude with violence , democracy , the implications for Africa globally . Will be using the International Futures forecasting system (IFs) for the modelling, data from ACLED, Freedom House and Polity IV @jakkiecilliers 2 1

12/9/16 FRAMING SCENARIOS Politics of the Belly Dimension Africa Rising Government On education, health and infrastructure, to alleviate On consumption, for urban elites and their interests expenditure poverty, reduce inequality Informal sector balloons, services expand, subsistence Growth in manufacturing, formal sector expands, larger Economy agriculture, inequality increases tax base, green revolution, inclusive growth Rural development and urban planning, metro Urban enclaves, centralized management Spatial approach governments and greater authority to sub-nationa Authoritarian regression, incumbents manipulate 4th Wave of Democracy, term limits, regular Politics system, personalization of power, ethnic & populist free/fair/comp elections, institutions matter mobilization Steady reduction, effective peacekeeping and conflict Terrorism, election violence, resource competition Violence mediation Beggar they neighbour policies Regional policies Meaningul sub-regional integration that expands Global tension, sphere of influence competion International Growth in all trading partners Allows Africa ability to protect and grow its infant Protectionist, lever open African access Trade policies industries and business 3 AFRICA GDP GROWTH RATES 8 7 Average Growth Rates 6 7.0 5 6.0 5.0 4 4.0 3 3.0 5.9 4.2 2.0 3.1 2 2.8 1.0 0.0 1 A Rising Base Belly World 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Af Rising Current Path Pol Belly World 4 2

12/9/16 AFRICAN EXPORTS TO COUNTRIES/BLOCS 300 000 250 000 200 000 $US millions 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EU China US Latin America South Africa 5 AFRICAN IMPORTS FROM COUNTRIES/BLOCS 250 000 200 000 150 000 $US millions 100 000 50 000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EU China US Latin America South Africa 6 3

12/9/16 TOP 5 TRADING PARTNERS, EU- AFRICA/CHINA-AFRICA EU exports EU imports China exports China imports Algeria South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Algeria Angola Nigeria Nigeria Egypt Sudan (North and Egypt South) Morocco Morocco Democratic Republic Algeria of the Congo Tunisia Nigeria Congo Brazaville Kenya 7 GDP PER CAPITA 12/9/16 8 8 4

12/9/16 INFORMAL AS PART OF FORMAL 12/9/16 9 9 WORLD VS AFRICAN ECONOMY 200 000 180 000 166 691 171 377 173 634 160 000 140 000 120 000 2011 Bn US$ 100 000 80 000 82 024 60 000 40 000 20 000 13 126 2 542 0 8 440 6 183 2016 Rising 2045 C Path 2045 P Belly 2045 Africa World 12/9/16 10 10 5

12/9/16 FORMAL VS INFORMAL SECTOR: 2045 20 000 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 US$ bilioon 15 688 10 000 8 000 8 431 6 000 5 705 4 000 2 000 2 741 2 081 1 449 0 Africa Rising Current Path Politics of Belly Informal Formal 12/9/16 11 11 RELATIVE POPULATION 12 6

12/9/16 POPULATION 59 million difference 12/9/16 13 13 EXTREME POVERTY 12/9/16 14 14 7

12/9/16 EDUCATION • By 2045 the average years of education for Africa’s 2.2 bn people would have increased from 5.2 years in 2016 to 7.2 years (Africa Rising) • In 2016 78% of children of school going age attend primary school. By 2046 this could achieve 100% (Africa Rising) or be as low as 92% (Poltics of the Belly) • By 2045 69% (Africa Rising) of children who enter upper secondary school could complete schooling whereas only 28% complete in 2016 • In 2016 only7% of Africans of the relevant age group complete tertiary education. By 2045 this could be as high as 22% (Africa Rising) or 11 % (Politics of the Belly) 15 INFANT MORTALITY 12/9/16 16 16 8

12/9/16 CLIMATE CHANGE 12/9/16 17 17 APPROACH Complement the previous presentation by setting out the scope of potential futures for Africa and the sub- regions in the UKMoD report to 2045, using an optimistic Africa Rising and pessimistic Politics of the Belly alternative. These are framed around a Current Path (Base Case) forecast. Conclude with violence, democracy , the implications for Africa globally. @jakkiecilliers 18 9

12/9/16 FREEDOM HOUSE: AFRICA 19 AFRICA’S LONGEST SERVING LEADERS 20 10

12/9/16 APPROACH Complement the previous presentation by setting out the scope of potential futures for Africa and the sub- regions in the UKMoD report to 2045, using an optimistic Africa Rising and pessimistic Politics of the Belly alternative. These are framed around a Current Path (Base Case) forecast. Conclude with violence , democracy, the implications for Africa globally. @jakkiecilliers 21 EVENTS VS FATALITIES 22 11

12/9/16 TOTAL FATALITIES VS RISK OF DEATH: 2015 Fatalities Risk of death 23 APPROACH Complement the previous presentation by setting out the scope of potential futures for Africa and the sub- regions in the UKMoD report to 2045, using an optimistic Africa Rising and pessimistic Politics of the Belly alternative. These are framed around a Current Path (Base Case) forecast. Conclude with comments on violence, democracy, the implications for Africa globally . @jakkiecilliers 24 12

12/9/16 THE AFRICAN EXPERIENCE WITH DEMOCRACY An intrinsic ‘good’ but democracy has been undermined by: • Association with neo-liberal economic policies • Western support to dictators and authoritarian states • Weakness of the African state - process of delayed state formation - African states simultaneously have to provide security, develop capacity and become more inclusive Neopatrimonialism has adapted to democracy – African elites go through motions of elections but frustrate the essence Rise of China vs relative decline in influence of Africa’s traditional development partners – African elites (again) have alternatives But hugely popular (Afrobarometer) 25 LEADERSHIP IN AFRICA 12/9/16 26 26 13

12/9/16 AFRICA VS EU28-UK 12/9/16 27 27 THE DIVERGENCE INCREASES 12/9/16 28 28 14

12/9/16 STAY INFORMED www.issafrica.org @ISSAfrica 29 15