12/05/2016 Climate Ireland: A Case Study of Facilitating Local Authority Planning for Climate Change Barry O’Dwyer , MaREI, UCC Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 Ireland’s Climate Information Platform (ICIP) - Cl Clima imate Irela land • EPA-Funded Research Project • Aim: Design and develop a one-stop web-based resource of climatic and adaptation information (www.climateireland.ie) to facilitate climate adaptation decision making while also acting as a source of climatic and adaptation information for the general Public • A phased Approach to Development: Phase 1 – Discovery Prototype (2011- 2013) Phase 2 – Pre-operational ICIP (2013- 2015) (Local Authority) Phase 3 – Operational ICIP (2015- 2016) (Sectors) Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 1
12/05/2016 Local l Au Authorities - Base seline Understanding In Summary: • Local Authority (LA) Reps consider climate change to be a significant issue; • Awareness of the impacts is highest amongst coastal LAs; • Fit-for-purpose information is deemed hard to find; • Current risks form the basis for interpretation of future climate risk Survey of Local Authority Representatives (36), December 2015-January 2016) Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 Development of the ICIP Platform Based on Best Practice Adaptation Decision-making frameworks Understanding/ Awareness Data Provision Decision Support Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 2
12/05/2016 Na Nation onal l Requir quirements of of Adap Adaptatio ion n Decis cision on mak akin ing at the he loc local al le level What should adaptation decision making at the local level comprise? Strategies (50- 100 year time horizons), Iterative & Overarching. How should it be implemented? Through LA Development Plans and Strategies (incl. in-house) What should it aim to achieve? Raise awareness and understanding; Include climate change considerations in all aspects of LA planning. Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 ICIP’s Local Authority Adaptation Support Wizard Scope Initial Risk Screening for climate risk; Analysis of key climate risks; ✗ Detail Risk Assessment (e.g grey) Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 3
12/05/2016 St Step p 1 1 – Ge Gettin ing St Start arted • Development of pre-requisite knowledge is essential • Understanding of current climate, changes and impacts ( National to Local ); • Understanding of the adaptation process (A lot of spent time on now undisputed science); • Useful engagement cues ( prompts/ice breakers ) for Adaptation Team Leaders. ICIP’s ‘The Status of Ireland’s Climate 2012 Tool’ ICIP’s ‘Sectoral information Tool’ ICIP’s ‘Climate information Viewer’ Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 As Asse sessi sing Cli limate Im Impacts s & & Risk Risk 1. High Level/National Messages ICIP’s ‘Essential Climate Information Tool ’ 1. Climate Risk Screening Aim: Develop wide-ranging understanding 2. Prioritisation 2. Prioritisation (Objectives) Aim: Make it relevant/Situationalise Current LA 3. Assessment Objectives Aim: Detailed Understanding Potential National Future Current Emerging Priorities ICIP’s ‘Climate Information Tool’ 3. Regional & Local Climate Information Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 4
12/05/2016 • However - tends to focus on memorable extremes • Requirement to change perceptions and improve/kickstart understanding of gradual/emerging climate impacts Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 Use the following tables to undertake a preliminary assessment of the impacts of observed changes in climate (Table 2) and extreme weather events (Table 3) on your area. This assessment should be informed by literature review and stakeholder input and will form the basis for the prioritisation of impacts for further analysis through case study example. Observed Climatic Observed Potential Impacts Magnitude of Impact trends: Buildings & Infrastructure Health & Well being Habitats, Parks & Green Spaces Eco. Soc. Env. Temperatures • Invasive species (Japanese Increasing Med Low knotweed; Himalayan Balsam, Giant temperatures • Upwelling in Vartry Hogweed (Dodder)) • Expansion of tourist season reservoir resulting in algal bloom and impacting on • Street trees affected by by increase water supply. temperature and decreased summer rainfall • Over-wintering of rexotic eptiles Precipitation & Hydrology • Erosion of uplands (Dublin Increase in annual Low Mountains, tourist resource) average rainfall (5%) • Erosion of banks (Dodder) Increases in winter Low high river flows Evidence of observed climate change Phenology impacts is strongest and most • Year round grass growth requires Increasing duration Low cutting resulting in damage to sites of growing season comprehensive for natural systems due to unsuitable ground conditions, more staff and (IPCC AR5). contractors required. Table 2.2 1 Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 5
12/05/2016 Impact Screening – Gradual Climate Changes (Projected) Using the table below and with reference to current climate or weather related impacts currently affecting your authority, provide details of the potential impacts of these changes for your area. In addition, provide details for emerging impacts, i.e. may not be currently affecting you but are likely to become an issue in the future. Projected Current Magnitude Potential Future Change Potential Future Impacts Climate Change: of Impact magnitude of Impact (2041-2060) Habitats, Parks & Health & Wellbeing Eco. Soc. Env. Buildings & Infra. Greenspaces Eco. Soc. Env. Temperatures • Potential to exacerbate • Increase adverse • Increased occurrence Summer Med Low ↑ (0.9-1.7 High Low High Temperatures deg C). existing water quality health and of invasive/exotic issues at Vartry welfare effects in species, threating • Increased business summer (see native populations opportunities heatwaves); and disruption to • Increased public maintenance and safety risk (water- construction; based activities) • Increased water pollution; • Increased Grass growth; Precipitation • Increased • Increased • Increased erosion of Winter rainfall Low ↑ (0 - 14%) damp in Low Low Med housing stock and assoc. isolation of uplands; • Decreased level of maintenance costs. vulnerable • Increased levels of soil communities; engagement of public • Health saturation (see flooding) issues green spaces. related to damp housing stock. Consequence - A Basis for Risk Analysis Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 Pri rioritisa sation of of Cli limate Risk Risks • Requirement that risks must be considered in terms of current and emerging risk • Impacts must be prioritised according to LA remits/objectives/existing planning practices : • County Development Plan Social Housing & Home Adaptation • Regional and Local roads • Environmental Protection (Air, noise, water & waste) • In house-strategies (e.g. tourism strategies) • Impacts need to be considered in terms of both local/regional and national priorities Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 6
12/05/2016 As Asse sess ssment – Mor ore Detail ailed (Ris isk Anal Analysi sis) • Case Study (Current and Projected) • A vulnerability approach Exposure (where?), sensitivity (who or what?) and measures in place (adaptive capacity)? • Any discussion of projected vulnerability must be firmly based in an understanding of current climate vulnerability • Employs ranges of projected climate data: Critical Thresholds Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 As Asse sess ssment – Obser served and and Proj ojected A number of studies have shown that indoor Exposure temperature in hospitals can reach 30 ºC when outside temperature is 22ºC Threshold – Sleep is interrupted 26ºC 24ºC 28ºC 30ºC Threshold – Uncomfortably hot Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4 th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10 th -13 th 2016 7
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