Socio-economic Vulnerability of the Mangroves Ecosystem to Climate Change in South Asia: A case study of the Indus and Ganges deltas Kashif Majeed Salik SDPI's Seventeenth Sustainable Development Conference 09-11 December 2014, Islamabad
Outline Purpose of the study Background Climate change science and community perceptions Methodology Results and Adaptation options
Purpose of the study We try understand socio-economic vulnerability to climate change via: “ relating community’s perceptions with observed and projected climate change scenarios ” 1. What are the likely drivers of community’s sensitivity to climate change? 2. What are their impacts on community’s wellbeing? 3. How much is the coping potential? 4. What should be the key adaptation options for increasing community’s resilience?
Background • Mangrove forests are unique One hectare of a well-protected and highly productive and healthy mangrove ecosystems ecosystem can produce from 15 kg of crabs to 400 kg of fish, • Provide multitude of mollusks, and shrimp that environmental services and mature in off-shore areas (Khan, 2011) . economic benefits Export of about 85,000 metric • Becoming increasingly tones of fish (Rs7.9 billion- important in disaster risk more then 1percent of GDP) reduction
Climate change science & community perceptions
Air Temperature Mangrove forests are dependent on optimal temperatures- impact their biophysical processes such as The observed temperature photosynthesis, leaf formation, root suggests a consistent development, flowering and fruiting etc. (Nicholls et al., 2008; Belkin, 2009; increase of mean annual air Bardach, 1989) as well as increase temperature by 1.47 o C from salinity levels; decreased agriculture 1951 to 2010 production Annual temperature will rise Perception of changes in past 30 to 1.15, 2.4 and 4.19 ° C by years? 51% says temperatures are increasing F1 (2010-39), F2 (2040- 70% says reduction in Mangrove 2069) and F3 (2070-2099) forest is due to sea intrusion & salinity 57% says agriculture yields are decreasing due to salinity
Precipitation The erratic patterns of rain and flooding are likely to reduce ecosystem productivity due to soil erosion, phytoplankton displacement, less Annual total precipitation sedimentation deposit, soil salinity and reduction in agricultural yields (Keller et trend change has been al. 2009) estimated as -78.4 mm over the period 1951-2010 Perception of changes in past 30 years? Mean projected to increase Rainfall: 86.7 % says „changed twice the times of the base and increased‟; 54% increase in in F1(2010-39), 1.5 times of erratic RF the base in F2(2040-2069) 81% says Soil Fertility dec. and 1.8 F3 (2070-2099) 65 %says Soil erosion Incr.
Sea Surface Temperature Fish diversity, distribution, An average warming of abundance, phenology and its 0.3 ± 0.1 0 C per decade was spawning season all are closely observed in the coastal areas of related to SST variability (William Pakistan et al., 2013) While projected increase in the global mean SST under IPCC Perception of changes in past SERS A2 scenario is around 30 years? 2.6 o C by the end of 21 st century 75-85 % says decreasing trend in (Singh and Sarker, 2002; Khan et fish catch of all type al., 2004, 2008; Belkin, 2009; 73 % says fish catch sites are IPCC, 2007). changing and dispersed
Indus Delta-Keti Bundar Pakistan Ganges Delta-Dacope/Khulna Bangladesh
Vulnerability Assessment Exposure Sensitivity Potential impacts Adaptive capacity Vulnerability Vulnerability is defined on the basis of a system’s exposure and sensitivity to climate change, moderated by its adaptive capacity
• Air temperature • Precipitation Exposure • Sea Surface Temperature Composite • Mangrove Forests • Water and sanitation vulnerability Sensitivity • Fresh Water Flows Analysis • Cost of Climatic Disasters • Consumption Patterns Adaptive • Income Diversification capacity • Dependency Ratio • Schooling or Education Level • Infrastructure • Assets • Family Networks • Migrations CVI Sub- Indices Indicators
Exposure Variables Temperature sdt- Standard Deviation of Monthly Temperatures between 1951-2010 rT1- The range between max. & mini av. monthly temperatures Nhot- The frequency of extreme hot months (above 30 o C) Ncold- The frequency of extreme cold (below -10 o C) months Precipitation Ndry- The frequency of extreme dry month in spring(less than 5 ml total precipitation/month) and summer (0 ml total precipitation/month sdP- Standard Deviation of monthly total precipitation Sea Surface Temperature sdT- Standard Deviation of Yearly sea surface temperatures
Sensitivity Variables Mangrove Forests Degradation of mangroves in Keti Bandar Accessibility to Mangroves Mangroves used per month as fuel Health Share of households relying on unprotected water sources Population deprived of sanitation facility Fresh Water Flows Change in Fresh Water flows Effect of unavailability of Fresh water on Agriculture Effect of unavailability of Fresh Water on Fish Frequency of sea intrusion or inundation Frequency of Natural Climatic Disasters Cost of Climatic Disasters Intensity of Natural Climatic Disasters Estimated per capita economic costs of these disasters Percentage of population financially aided by different agencies
Adaptive capacity variables Consumption Patterns Household Consumption per Capita Income Diversification Herfindahl index of income diversification (higher value, more diversification) Dependency Ratio Ratio of total number of people and number of people earning in a family Schooling or Education Level People educated above secondary level Percentage Share of Literate People Infrastructure Access to Basic Services Nature of Dwellings Assets Number of the Assets owned by the community members Family Networks Level of cooperation within the family network within the village Level of cooperation within the family network outside the village Migrations Extent of Migration due to natural Disasters Extent of Migration because of economic reasons
CVI Calculation
Categorization of vulnerability Levels (Adopted and transformed from Comer et al. 2012 and Hammill et al. 2013) Exposure/ Sensitivity/ Adaptive Capacity/ Index value Scale CVI Vulnerability Vulnerability Vulnerability 0.0 ≤ CVI ≤ 0.3 Low/ Low Low/Low Low/ Very high Low 0.31 ≤ CVI ≤ 0.5 Medium/ Medium Medium/ Medium Medium/ High Medium 0.51 ≤ CVI ≤ 0.7 High/ High High/ High High/ Medium High Very High/ Very Very High/ Very 0.71 ≤ CVI ≤ 1.0 Very High/ Low Very High High High
Results & Adaptation options
Exposure Indicators Vulnerability Indus Ganges Low 1) Index representing exposure of 0.0≤ CVI ≤0.3 drought Medium 1)Frequency of extreme hot 1)Average precipitation; 2)Range and cold months; 2)Variability between maximum and minimum 0.31≤ CVI ≤0.5 of total precipitation temperature; 3) Index representing frequency of cyclone; 4)Frequency salinity beyond which drinking water is not potable High 1)Variability of Temperatures; 0.51≤ CVI ≤0.7 2) Average Diurnal Temperature Range; 3) No of extreme dry days; 4) Variability of Sea Surface Temp Very High 1) Average temperature; 0.71≤ CVI ≤1.0
Sensitivity variables Vulnerability Indus Ganges Low 1)Estimated per capita economic 1)Share of population below 5 year of 0.0≤ CVI ≤0.3 costs of these disasters; age; 2)Share of population above 65 2)Mangroves used per month as years of age; 3)Estimated per capita fuel ; economic cost of these disasters: Medium 1)Accessibility to Mangroves 1)Percentage of population without 0.31≤ CVI ≤0.5 access to improved toilet facility; High 1)Frequency of sea intrusion or 1)Frequency of natural climate disasters; 0.51≤ CVI ≤0.7 inundation; 2)Share of population relying on unprotected water sources Very High 1)Degradation of mangroves; 1)Percentage of population without 0.71≤ CVI ≤1.0 2)Unprotected water sources; access to improved water source; 3)Population deprived of sanitation 2)Percentage of population victims of Facility: 4)Effect of Fresh Water flow salinity intrusion; 3)Intensity of natural Agri. & Fish; 5)Frequency of Natural disasters;4) Percentage of population Climatic Disasters ; 6) Percentage of financially aided by different agencies population financially aided by different agencies
Adaptive capacity variables Vulnerability Indus Ganges Low 1)Household Consumption 1)Percentage of population with access to 0.0≤ CVI ≤0.3 per Capita; 2)Income electricity; 2) Dependency ratio; 3)Nature diversification; of dwellings 3)Dependency ratio; 4)Education above secondary; 5)% of Literate people; 6)Access to basic services; Medium 1) Assets ownership; 1)Employment rate; 2)Percentage of births 0.31≤ CVI ≤0.5 attended by skilled birth attendants; High 1)Literacy rate; 2)Household consumption 0.51≤ CVI ≤0.7 Very High 1)Nature of dwellings; 1)Percentage of children aged 2-23 0.71≤ CVI ≤1.0 2)cooperation within family months immunised against major disease; within and outside village; 2)Level of cooperation within locality 3)Migration
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