IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ALASKA ON: Military Installations and Action Planning at Alaska Common Ground 14 November 2015 J. Jerome “Doc” Montague, Ph.D. Native Affairs and Natural Resources Advisor Alaskan Command
Lieutenant General Russell Handy, Commander Alaskan Command Unified Command Plan: Combatant Commands (COCOMs)
Military Population Point Barrow LRRS 23K DoD & USCG AD Oliktok LRRS Cape Lisburne LRRS Barter Island LRRS 5K Guard and Reserve 7K Civil Service Kotzebue LRRS 43K Family Fort Yukon LRRS Tin City LRRS Indian Mountain LRRS 78,000 Direct Eielson AFB Murphy Dome LRRS Ft Wainwright Military Influence Clear AS Ft Greely Cape Romanzof LRRS Tatalina LRRS JBER MSU Valdez Sparrevohn LRRS Valdez RRS Sector Anc MSD Homer Middleton Island RRS Cape Newenham LRRS Sector Juneau Eareckson Air Station King Salmon Airport St. Paul Island RRS USCGAS Kodiak USCGAS Sitka MSD Unalaska Cold Bay LRRS MSD Ketchikan Joint Base Air Force Base Radar/Radio Site Army Base Marine Safety Unit/Det Coast Guard Station
President Obama: Climate Change Is an 'Immediate Risk to Our National Security'
Climate Change Affects Military: 1.Plans and Operations 2. Training 3. Infrastructure
Why Is It Important ? “significant upheaval related to the warming planet is probably the most likely thing that is going to happen . . . that will cripple the security environment over the long term’’ ADM Samuel J. Locklear III, Commander, Pacific Command March 8, 2013 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Climate change poses a significant challenge (2014 Quadrennial Defense Review) The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance institutions around the world. These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions – conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- J.J. Montague "Science of Climate Change"
J-Curve of Human Population “Forces such as rapid population growth have put us at a strategic inflection point….” GEN Martin Dempsey, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff November 28, 2011 “will only get worse as the population soars and even more people move near the ports and facilities that support globalization” ADM Samuel Locklear, Commander Pacific Command April 9, 2013 J.J. Montague "Science of Climate Change"
15 of 20 of World’s Largest Urban Areas Near the Coast 14 of 20 Largest Urban Areas in Asia
Catalysts for Instability and Conflict
What We Are Doing Plans and Operations • DoD Climate Change Adaption Roadmap (2014) Directive (2015?) • The Arctic – U.S. Arctic policy directs the Departments of State, Homeland Security, and Defense to: • Develop greater capabilities and capacity to protect U.S. borders • Increase Arctic maritime domain awareness • Cooperate with Arctic nations to address issues like increased shipping (e.g. SAR) – Unified Command Plan 2011 • USNORTHCOM and USEUCOM share Arctic geographic combatant commander responsibilities • USNORTHCOM is responsible for advocating for Arctic capabilities – Arctic Port Study – COMALCOM is USNORTHCOM’s operational - level lead for the Arctic • UAF MOU, Arctic 101
Military Training Areas • 65,000 square miles of available airspace • 2,490 square miles of land space with 1.5 million acres of maneuver land • 42,000 square nautical miles of sea and air space in the Gulf of Alaska
Anticipated Affects on Alaska Military Training Areas • Training Windows Reduced, Altered or Eliminated • Encroachment • Loss to surface infrastructure • Changes to Flora and Fauna What We Are Doing • CC Roadmap/Directive • DoD Instruction: Sustaining Access to the Live Training Domain • Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Ecosystems ”
Affects on Military Infrastructure Shoreline Erosion Increased Fetch Late Shorefast Ice Melting permafrost Warmer water Melting Permafrost Subsidence Lake Drainage
Mechanics of Shoreline Erosion along the Arctic Coast 1. Storm Surge 2. Niche Growth Conceptual model of erosional niche/block collapse mechanism (Ravens et al. 2012) 3. Block Collapse 4. Block Erosion
Modelling Pilot Study – Point Lonely Shoreline Change at Point Lonely SRRS: 2006 ‐ 2014 SS002 Erosion of Area of Environmental Concern
Map showing erosion: The shoreline in 1954 The dump site and the barge landing have already eroded away. Innovative Readiness Training Assistance in Newtok Relocation
What Are We Doing? • Moving assets and Infrastructure ahead of shoreline erosion • Pilot study addressing accelerating erosion • Study Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Army Alaska with Decision Support Tools Developed through Field Work Modeling • Assisting where possible 19
QUESTIONS? J.J. Montague "Science of Climate Chang
Recommend
More recommend
