Capital Markets Outlook & Investment Strategy Update Stokes Capital Advisors, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This brochure is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Stokes Capital Advisors, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by Stokes Capital Advisors, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place.
2008 Financial Crisis Wealth Destruction Weekly 2758.33 -9.45 -0.34% 1:29:41 PM VWAP: High: 217.63 Low: 98.56 Chg: -1.00% 240 (INDEX) S&P 500 - Total Return Recession Periods - United States 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 $99 80 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Post 2008 Financial Crisis Wealth Creation Weekly 2758.33 -9.45 -0.34% 1:29:41 PM VWAP: High: 538.74 Low: 100.00 Chg: 410.00% 600 (INDEX) S&P 500 - Total Return Recession Periods - United States $510 500 400 300 200 100 0 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Post 2008 Financial Crisis Wealth Creation Weekly 2763.23 -4.55 -0.16% 3:38:40 PM VWAP: High: 538.74 Low: 100.00 Chg: 410.00% 600 (INDEX) S&P 500 - Total Return Recession Periods - United States $510 500 400 300 200 100 0 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
CBOE VIX Volatility Index 90 90 CBOE Market Volatility Index - Price - Close or Current Intraday Recession Periods - United States 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 0 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
U.S. Markets Weekly 2758.52 -9.26 -0.33% 1:31:25 PM VWAP: High: 523.75 Low: 100.00 Chg: 395.00% 800 (INDEX) S&P 500 - Total Return (INDEX) DJ 30 Industrials Average - Price (INDEX) NASDAQ Composite - Price (INDEX) Russell 2000 - Price 700 $641 600 $501 500 $495 400 $384 300 200 100 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Global Markets Weekly 2758.36 -9.42 -0.34% 1:33:40 PM VWAP: High: 523.75 Low: 100.00 Chg: 395.00% 800 (INDEX) S&P 500 - Total Return (INDEX)Germany DAX - Price (INDEX)FTSE 100 - Price Index (INDEX)Japan Nikkei 225 - Price Index (INDEX)SSE Composite Index - Price Index (INDEX) DJ 30 Industrials Average - Price (INDEX) NASDAQ Composite - Price (INDEX) Russell 2000 - Price 700 $641 600 $501 500 $495 400 $384 $315 $315 300 200 $200 $121 100 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
U.S. Fed Funds 7 US Federal Funds Target Rate - Yield Recession Periods - United States 6 5 4 3 2.25 2 1 0 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Global Central Bank Rates 8 Fed Fund Target Rate Interest Rate, Central Bank Policy - United Kingdom Interest Rate, Central Bank Policy - Japan Interest Rate, Central Bank Policy - Euro Zone Recession Periods - United States 7 6 5 4 3 2.25 2 1 0.66 0.00 0 -0.06 -1 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 5,000,000 H.4.1. Assets Of All Federal Reserve Banks, Assets, Excl. Eliminations From Consolidation, Mil USD - United States Recession Periods - United States 4,500,000 4,175,446 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
USA 10 Year Treasury Yield 10 Recession Periods - United States 9 8 7 6 5 4 3.19% 3 2 1 0 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Global Bond Yields 14 US Benchmark Bond - 10 Year - Yield Germany Benchmark Bond - 10 Year - Yield Japan Benchmark Bond - 10 Year - Yield FR Govt Yield - 10 Yr United Kingdom Benchmark Bond - 10 Year - Yield Recession Periods - United States 12 10 8 6 4 3.19% 2 1.51% 0.81% 0.44% 0.15% 0 -2 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Global Bond Real Yields 8 10 Year, Government Benchmark Bond Yield, Real, Average, USD, Percent - United States 10 Year, Government Bond Yield, Real, Percent - Japan 10 Year, Government Bond Yield, Real Return, Percent - Europe Recession Periods - United States 6 4 2 0.73% 0 -0.78% -1.19% -2 -4 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Global Real GDP Growth 20 USA Real GDP (%y/y) - Act/Est (Q) EUZ Real GDP (%y/y) - Act/Est (Q) CN Real GDP (%y/y) - Act/Est (Q) Japan Real GDP (%y/y) - Act/Est (Q) Recession Periods - United States 15 10 6.50% 5 3.00% 1.90% 0.75% 0 -5 -10 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
USA Corporate Profits USD Bil. USD Bil. 2,500 Corporate Profits with IVA & CCAdj, Bil. $, SAAR Corporate Profits with IVA & CCAdj, Profits After Tax with IVA & CCAdj, Bil. $ Recession Periods - United States 2,242.3 2,007.5 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
S&P 500 Valuation - Price/Earnings 12/31/1999 to 10/22/2018 (Daily) Average: 15.7 High: 26.0 Low: 8.7 Last: 15.9 30 30 S&P 500 - PE - NTM Recession Periods - United States 25 25 20 20 15.9 AVG: 15.72 15 15 10 10 5 5 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
USA Household Net Worth USD Tril. YoY% 110 20% Balance sheet of households & nonprofit organizations - Net worth (% 1YR) Balance sheet of households & nonprofit organizations - Net worth Recession Periods - United States 106.93 15% 100 10% 90 8.20 5% 80 0% 70 -5% 60 -10% 50 -15% 40 -20% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
USA Real GDP Growth 6% 6% Gross Domestic Product, Real %Chg P/P - United States Real GDP, %Chg From Q1 Year Ago - United States Recession Periods - United States QoQ: 4.2% 4% 4% YoY: 2.9% 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% -4% -4% -6% -6% -8% -8% -10% -10% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
USA PCE Inflation 3.5% 3.5% (% 1YR) Chain-Type Price Index for PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Price Index, 2000=100, SA - United States (% 1YR) Chain-Type Price Index for PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures less Food & Energy, Price Index, 2000=100, SA - United States Recession Periods - United States 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.22% 2.0% 2.0% 1.96% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% -1.0% -1.0% -1.5% -1.5% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
USA Change in NonFarm Employment & Unemployment Rate 600 11.0% DIFF 1M) All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payroll, Thousands of Persons, SA - United States Unemployment Rate - Percent, SA - United States Recession Periods - United States 400 10.0% 200 9.0% 134 0 8.0% -200 7.0% -400 6.0% -600 5.0% -800 4.0% 3.7% -1,000 3.0% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
U.S Initial Jobless Claims 700 USA - Weekly Job Claims (000's) Recession Periods - United States 600 500 400 300 210 200 100 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
USA Growth in Avg Hourly Earnings (YoY%) - Real vs. Nominal 6% 6% (% 1YR) Average Hourly Earnings Of Production Workers Total Private SA (% 1YR) Average Hourly Earnings Of Production Workers Total Private SA - Inflation Adjusted Recession Periods - United States 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2.75% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0.47% 0% 0% -1% -1% -2% -2% -3% -3% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Summa mmary Expansion Continues But Global Business Cycle Less Synchronized Late-Cycle Pressures Rising, Risk of Recession Remains Low Central Banks Normalize Monetary Policy (Headwind) Solid Economic Growth and Corporate Earnings (Tailwind) U.S./China Trade Tensions & Geopolitical Risks Rising Possible Central Bank Policy Error
Recommend
More recommend
