Biofuel Transitions in S.E. Asia : Thailands Leading Example Samai - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Biofuel Transitions in S.E. Asia : Thailand’s Leading Example Samai Jai-Indr, Ph.D. Energy Specialist, Energy Standing Committee, House of Representatives, Ministry of Defense, Bangkok 22 nd July 2010 Samai@rocketmail.com

Thailand’s Economy in 2009 • 65 Millions Population ~1% of World; Per capita 4,338$, (PPP : 8,500$) • GDP US$273 Billions (553.4 Bn, PPP) • Agriculture: – 11.4 % of GDP – 40 % of Employment • Manufacturing: – 44.5 % of GDP – 20 % of Employment • 1st Import Item : Crude Oil (15.6% of import bill) • Major Agricultural Products & World Rankings – Rice 30.2 MT from 11 M. Ha.(1 st Exporter) – Rubber 3.02 MT from 1.76 M. Ha.(1 st Producer&Exporter) – Sugarcane 64.4 MT from 1.01 M. Ha.(Export 75%, 2 nd ) – Cassava 27 MT from 1.17 M. Ha.(Export 80% 1 st ) – Oil Palm 6.6 MT from 0.42 M. Ha.(3 rd Producer)

ASEAN GDP in MUSD, Current Market Prices, Data from ASEAN Total Population : 583 Millions, Ave. GDP Per Capita : 2,581 USD (GDP PPP 5,320 USD) Total Land Area 4.4 Million Sq.km. 1,600,000.0 ASEAN Total GDP : 1,506 Billion USD Lao PDR Japan GDP : 5,100 Billion USD (2007) China GDP : 4,200 Billions USD 1,400,000.0 90,701 Brunei Darussalam India GDP : 891 Billions USD (2007) 166,773 Cambodia 70,965 1,200,000.0 Myanmar 146,839 184,120 60,965 1,000,000.0 Viet Nam 167,211 117,457 222,058 52,953 Philippines 800,000.0 132,273 186,454 98,757 45,544 Singapore 86,912 116,640 157,237 273,666 600,000.0 107,464 246,036 Malaysia 137,971 206,645 124,750 Thailand 400,000.0 176,207 161,386 Indonesia 511,174 430,855 200,000.0 364,371 284,790 239,134 - 2004 2005 2006 2007 20081/

Asia has changed, Thailand has also changed : • Economic & Social Integration, • Climate Change Impact, • The way we live (urbanization) and the way we work also change, • And so do Agriculture : The backbone ! • Demographic Changes … Aging society by 2025,

Share of Transportation Fuels in Thailand (Figures in Million Litre/D) Since 2008, All HSD contains 2% of Biodiesel 100% 0.21 0.35 0.76 2.51 4.16 13.10 14.82 16.29 90% 18.62 21.70 0.30 22.23 1.90 80% 3.50 4.83 20.69 17.96 70% 9.27 16.27 12.24 15.27 60% NGV 10.19 8.41 LPG 50% Gasohol Gasoline Diesel 40% 53.48 53.47 30% 50.17 51.17 48.18 50.27 20% 10% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(Jan-Oct)

LPG Demand in K.Tons (source : PTT) 6,000 658 ~20% yoy 5,000 749 666 776 4,000 585 572 658 Transport 1,717 459 Industry 3,000 602 303 1,284 Petrochemical 511 225 210 Household 902 450 229 248 441 435 807 162 399 335 708 2,000 313 720 91 93 112 593 588 528 556 314 266 275 461 284 325 412 2,391 2,231 2,124 1,000 1,884 1,721 1,604 1,502 1,513 1,468 1,430 1,348 1,225 1,206 1,130 - 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553

Thailand’ ’s Energy Policy s Energy Policy Thailand Presented to the Parliament on Dec 30 th 2008 1 1 Policy Policy 5 5 Policy Policy Policy Policy Securing Energy Securing Energy 2 2 Resources Resources Preserving Environment Preserving Environment 4 coupled with Energy coupled with Energy 4 Development and Development and Set Renewable � Oil Set Renewable Policy Consumption Consumption Policy � Natural Gas Energy as Energy as 3 3 Ensure Fair Ensure Fair � Electricity � Green house National Agenda National Agenda � Alternative Energy Energy Price Emission Reduction Energy Price � E85 � Support CDM Policy Policy � Ethanol based oil � Price structure Projects Encouraging Encouraging � Bio Diesel reflect its genuine � NGV Energy Energy cost Conservation � Develop Services � Wind /Solar / Conservation Biogas/ Biomass/ Quality � Conservation Small Hydro � Safety in Energy Measure energy Related business � Efficiency Standard � Encouraging Private Investment

Drivers • Agriculture Diversification – Alternative end-use from food/feed market – Less labour intensive – Higher Productivity • Rural Job Creation • Bridge Building I : ASEAN/GMS Cross- Border Trades • Bridge Building II : Low Carbon Society

Labour Force : 36 M strong, but…. Thailand will move into an ‘aging society’ by 2025, window of opportunity is closing.. 1960 2009 2027 From NESDB

Landuse / Arable Area in Thailand 2007 48% Rice Paddy 2,593,136 , 2% 2,290,823 , 2% 1,132,083 , 1% 3,609,998 , 3% 1,236,938 , 1% 28,626,646 , 22% ที่อยูอาศัย Perennials ที่นา ที่พืชไร ที่ไมผลและ ไมยืนตน Rice Paddy ที่สวนผักและ ไมดอก ที่ทุงหญา เลี้ยงสัตว 63,551,124 , 48% ที่รกราง เนื้อที่ทําการ เกษตรอื่นๆ Year Crops 27,249,969 , 21%

Net Farm Crop Income USD/Ha/Yr Data from OAE, MOAC 2,500.00 Average Farm Holding in Thailand ~ 3 Ha./Household Average Farm Poverty Line = 524 USD/person/yr = 2,100 USD/Household/yr 2,000.00 Holding 1,500.00 USD/Ha./Yr. 1,000.00 Poverty Line : 700 USD/Ha./Yr. Poverty Line : 700 USD/Ha./Yr. 3.7 3.7 Mln Mln. HH . HH 500.00 - Rubber Palm Cane Cassava Rice Maize

Food&Energy Crop Price Statistics in Thailand Data from OAE, MOAC. 4.5 Palm FFB THB/Kg 4 Cassava Root THB/Kg Cane Price THB/Kg 3.5 3 2.5 THB/Kg. 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1.83 1.8 1.79 1.71 2.05 2.03 2.17 3.37 2.21 1.66 1.19 2.3 2.34 3.11 2.76 2.39 4.07 4.23 3.64 3.88 Palm FFB THB/Kg Cassava Root THB/Kg 0.82 0.77 0.6 0.71 1.16 0.91 0.71 1.3 0.83 0.61 0.77 1.04 0.89 0.88 1.37 1.21 1.38 1.73 1.32 1.93 0.42 0.34 0.38 0.46 0.41 0.39 0.44 0.51 0.47 0.46 0.50 0.44 0.45 0.42 0.58 0.69 0.64 0.62 0.75 0.84 Cane Price THB/Kg

Energy Crop Plantation Areas in Thailand (M.Ha., data from OAE, MOAC) 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 M.Ha. 0.6 0.4 Oil Palm Cassava 0.2 Cane 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Food/Feed/Fuel Crop at Farmgate Values in Million Baht (Data from OAE,MOAC) 140,000 M.B OilPalm 120,000 Cane Cassava 38,189 100,000 26,007 80,000 16,049 40,940 60,000 11,472 13,807 43,962 16,115 9,203 32,789 7,543 4,875 40,000 5,549 34,827 25,785 26,106 23,918 24,964 25,475 24,053 44,229 20,000 31,760 29,134 22,528 17,712 18,337 17,152 15,021 12,693 12,010 - 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

New Equation into the old ag. commodity

New Equation into the old ag. commodity 15yr REDP 15yr REDP Oil Palm Price FFB (Data from DIT,MOC) B2 Mandate B2 Mandate 4.5 4 3.5 B3 B3 3 Ma Ma nda 2.5 nda Th.B./Kg. te te 2 National National Biofuel Biofuel Strategy Strategy 1.5 1 Biodiesel Project initiation Project initiation Biodiesel 0.5 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Planted areas(1000 rais) Sugarcane Area and Production in Thailand (Data : OAE) Production(1000 tonnes) 8,000 80,000 6.25 Rai 6.25 Rai = 1 Ha. = 1 Ha. 7,000 70,000 6,000 60,000 5,000 50,000 4,000 40,000 3,000 30,000 2,000 20,000 1,000 10,000 - - 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2

Planted areas(1000 rais) Cassava Area and Production in Thailand (Data:OAE) Production(1000 tonnes) 12,000 30,000 6.25 Rai 6.25 Rai = 1 Ha. = 1 Ha. 10,000 25,000 8,000 20,000 6,000 15,000 4,000 10,000 2,000 5,000 - - 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2

Oil Palm Production in Thailand 0.6 12 Plantation Area (M.Ha.) FFB Production (M.Tons) 0.5 10 0.4 8 0.3 6 0.2 4 0.1 2 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Alternative Energy Targets for Road Transport Sector of Thailand 2008 -2022 Million Litre/ Day Total 2022 = 96 ML/ d 100 9% 90 Gasohol 5% Total 2008 Bio Diesel 80 5% = 60 ML/ d 20% NGV Replace Gasoline 15% 70 NGV Replace Diesel 3% 16% 60 Gasoline 28% 50 45% 66% 40 Diesel 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gasoline and Gasohol Consumption in Thailand, ML/Day 25 1% 0.05% 9% 20 18 % 23% 40% 39% 15 31% 20% 55% 16% 64% 10 5% 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 5 40% 33.5% 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 t c 0 0 0 0 0 0 O 2 2 2 2 2 2 - n a J ( 9 0 0 2 Gasoline 91 Gasoline 95 Gasohol