BILD Calgary Region City Manager Jeff Fielding Wednesday February - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

BILD Calgary Region City Manager Jeff Fielding Wednesday February 14, 2018 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Coming together is a beginning. Keeping together is progress. Working together is success. Henry Ford 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary 2 V05

OUR VISION Calgary: a great place to make a living, A great place to make a life. 27% 2017. 37 3 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Operating Savings & Efficiencies 2015-2018 $ 470 million $41M Operating Cost Reductions & Efficiencies Cost Containment - Labour $92M $168M One Time Operating Cost Savings Intentional Savings Utility Rate Reductions $54M $115M V05 4

10 Year Infrastructure Gap Operating Gap Capital Maintenance Gap Capital Growth Gap Total Infrastructure Gap 12 10 $ (BILLIONS) 8 6 4 2 0 2004 2007 2010 2013 2017 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary * Source: Infrastructure Status Report 5 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Infrastructure – Assets Physical Condition Good Fair Poor 95% 100% 88% 80% 78% 76% 80% Per cent of assets 60% 40% 17% 16% 14% 3.50% 20% 9.70% 7% 6% 6% 1.50% 2.30% 0% Year 2004 2007 2010 2013 2017 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary *Infrastructure Status Report 6 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Total Debt Outlook 2012-2028 8,000 Debt Limit 7,000 6,000 5,000 $ millions 65% 68% 67% 62% 60% 4,000 65% 68% 66% 58% 53% 71% 57% 50% 58% 56% 56% 56% 3,000 2,000 1,000 - 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Tax-Supported Self Supported Self Sufficient Tax Supported MSI Green Line Stage 1 (Scenario 3) Council Debt Limit 7 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Debt Impact Outlook Debt impact of projects under consideration 9 8 7 Debt Limit 6 $ billions 5 4 Green Line Project Green Line Project 3 2 Existing debt-pre-Green Line Existing debt-pre-Green Line Project Project 1 0 2025 Debt Balance – Low 2025 Debt Balance – High ($ B) ($ B) 8 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Building Permit Values 2007-2017 Billion $ 7.0 6.0 10-Year Average $4.8B 5.0 $4.6B 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: The City of Calgary, Corporate Economics 9 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Economic Assumptions Indicator 2015 2016 2017 2018 Action Action Action Action Actual Actual Current Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Calgary Region GDP Growth 2.5% -3.7% 2.3% -1.2% 2.3% 3.0% 2.3% 2.4% Unemployment 4.5% 6.1% 4.4% 9.0% 4.5% 8.6% 4.5% 6.7% Oil Price (WCS N.A. $35.70 N.A. $29.50 N.A. $37.60 N.A. $40.50 US$/bbl) City of Calgary 1,231,00 1,223,00 1,235,00 1,196,000 1,251,000 1,246,000 1,274,000 1,259,000 Population 0 0 0 Housing starts 9,400 10,600 10,000 7,700 12,300 6,300 10,800 4,400 Building permits ($ $6.1 $6.3 $5.6 $4.7 $4.5 $4.6 $4.4 $3.6 billions) 10 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Calgary is a great place to make a living Late Fall % Agree 2017 2017 16% 52% 22% 10% 68% 68% 2016 15% 50% 23% 12% 65% 2015 21% 59% 13% 7% 80% 2014 29% 57% 9% 5% 86% 2013 35% 55% 8% 2 90% Completely Agree (10) Agree (9, 8 or 7) Neutral (6 or 5) Disagree (4, 3, 2 or 1) Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with each statement using a scale from 1 to 10, where “1” is “completely disag ree ” and “10” is “completely agree.” Base: Valid respondents (Bases vary) 11 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Current Economic Situation (Businesses) How would you rate the current economic situation in… 8% 29% 31% 40% 45% 49% 47% 22% 20% 1% 1% 4% Calgary Alberta Canada Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know February 14, 2018 Base: All respondents n=320 12 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Trust and Confidence 13 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Non-residential market value assessment change 8% 7% 6% 4% 2% 2016 2017 2018 0% 2015 -2% -4% -4% -5% -6% -6% -8% 14 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Non-residential Assessment Values & Municipal Tax Examples Property 2015 2016 2017 Trend Assessment: ↓ Downtown AA Office 1,432,050,000 1,294,900,000 1,013,010,000 Downtown Taxes: ↓ $15,375,491 $15,738,862 $14,062,504 Assessment: ↓ Downtown A Office 374,440,000 330,730,000 257,310,000 Taxes: ↓ $4,020,250 $4,019,858 $3,571,952 Assessment: ↓ Downtown B Office 65,630,000 54,640,000 37,660,000 Taxes: ↓ $704,650 $664,122 $522,792 Assessment:↑ Suburban A Strip Mall 19,320,000 19,190,000 20,400,000 Taxes: ↑ $207,433 $233,245 $283,191 Assessment:↑ Suburban B Strip Mall Suburban 1,940,000 1,960,000 1,980,000 Taxes: ↑ $20,829 $23,823 $27,486 Assessment: ↕ 83,880,000 75,360,000 76,560,000 Enclosed Shopping Centre Taxes: ↑ $900,594 $915,963 $1,062,798 Assessment: ↕ 119,520,000 120,600,000 117,450,000 Large Industrial Warehouse Taxes: ↑ $1,283,250 $1,465,833 $1,630,429 15 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Sentiment about Timing for The City to Invest in New Projects (Businesses) To what degree do you think that now is a good time or a bad time for The City of Calgary to be investing in new projects like roads, public transportation, and local facilities? 2% 5% 31% 18% Good time: 75% 44% Very good time Somewhat good time Somewhat bad time Very bad time Don't know February 14, 2018 Base: All respondents n=320 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary 16 V05

The City’s Capital Investment (2015 -2017) 1.80 1,742,414 1.60 Capital Investment (Actual Spend) in Billions ($) 1,403,272 1,547,765 1.40 1,256,828 1,254,228 1.20 1,103,285 1,210,979 Annual 5 year Average 2010-2015 ($1.2 B) 1,067,295 947,053 1.00 961,291 813,712 907,087 0.80 761,236 673,051 798,745 629,458 724,494 520,319 0.60 376,353 514,087 579,496 323,624 487,703 0.40 198,782 254,140 391,323 283,041 0.20 189,367 176,411 118,589 - 2017 Actual Spend 2015 Actual Spend 2016 Actual Spend *Information based on Executive Management Report 17 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Select Fall 2017 Housing Starts Forecasts for Calgary (2018-2022) 12,000 10,564 10,354 10,166 9,747 9,600 10,000 9,520 8,960 8,560 8,391 8,391 8,391 8,000 8,391 8,160 8,000 5,900 6,000 4,400 4,100 4,000 2,000 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Corporate Economics (City of Calgary) CMHC (Low) CMHC (High) Conference Board of Canada Altus Group (Best Scenario) Note 1: Conference Board and CMHC forecasts are published at the CMA level. They are multiplied by 0.8 to reflect Calgary's historical 80% share of CMA housing starts. February 14, 2018 Note 2: Altus Group data comes from a housing forecast commissioned by The City. Altus data reflects "change in occupied dwellings“, and is based on a 5 year total that has been annualized. 18 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

“Calgary’s housing market is Goldilocks’ dream – not too hot, not too cold, just comfortably right in between.” 19 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Housing Affordability: Housing Costs as a Per Cent of Income Housing Affordability: Housing Costs as a Per Cent of Income Aggregate of all categories Single-family detached Condominium 120 111.8 100 85.8 80 79.7 Per cent of income 72.0 60 40 44.4 43.1 43.0 42.3 42.4 39.6 38.6 37.7 34.3 33.2 31.0 28.4 25.6 20 20.0 0 Calgary Edmonton Ottawa Montreal Toronto Vancouver Source: RBC Economics. Housing Trends & Affordability, June 2017 20 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

2018-02-14 BILD Calgary Consistency and Predictability for Approvals Timeline Commitments Met 100% 96% 78% 80% 80% 74% 63% 74% 60% 54% 51% 40% 30% 20% 0% 2015 2016 2017 Initial Team Review Detailed Team Review Decision 21 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Development Facilitation 2017 performance & metrics 2016/2017 Initial Team Review 3-year trend 2015 2016 2017 Change 42% 72% 97% Development Permit: Multi-Disciplinary 97% Land Use Amendment: Excluding Secondary Suites 54% 69% 95% 95% Land Use Amendment: Secondary Suites Only 75% 86% 100% 100% Subdivision by Instrument 42% 85% 98% 98% Subdivision by Tentative Plan 41% 76% 89% 89% 2016/2017 Detailed Team Review Performance 3-year trend 2015 2016 2017 Change Development Permit: Multi-Disciplinary 34% 62% 91% 91% Land Use Amendment: Excluding Secondary Suites 15% 37% 70% 70% Land Use Amendment: Secondary Suites Only 50% 79% 94% 94% 22% 44% 78% Subdivision by Instrument 78% 27% 49% 68% Subdivision by Tentative Plan 68% 2016/2017 Decisions Performance 3-year trend 2015 2016 2017 Change Development Permit: Multi-Disciplinary 59% 71% 75% 75% Land Use Amendment: Excluding Secondary Suites 52% 56% 63% 63% 66% 90% 97% Land Use Amendment: Secondary Suites Only 97% Subdivision by Instrument 64% 92% 91% 91% Subdivision by Tentative Plan 56% 58% 67% 67% Development Permit: Technical 83% 85% 90% 90% Development Permit: Infills 61% 69% 77% 77% 22 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05

Current and Future New Communities Ongoing Investments • Mix of funded and unfunded • 27 actively developing new communities with land use Future Investment Areas • Unfunded • 9 Area Structure Plans • 13-15 future new communities (11 business cases) at this time Future new community with significant non- residential component Area Structure Plan boundary 23 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary V05