Bhutan Monsoon Prediction JJAS 2015 Prepared by Tayba Buddha - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Bhutan Monsoon Prediction JJAS 2015 Prepared by Tayba Buddha Tamang Meteorology Division Department of Hydro Met Services April 2015 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

Data set • Station wise forecast – 1996-2014 • Over all JJAS Bhutan forecast – 1996-2014 • Gridded data CFS2 – 1982-2015 - April 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

Station wise forecast Sl no Station Lat Lon • 1996-2014 JJAS 1 Bhur 26.90703 90.43106 2 Damphu 27.00946 90.12201 • Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) 3 Pling 26.85628 89.38659 4 Sipsu 27.00896 88.87832 • Goodness index = 0.129 5 Bumthang 27.54548 90.75377 6 Dagana 27.09680 89.85873 7 Trongsa 27.50369 90.50551 8 Zhemgang 27.21507 90.65883 9 Punakha 27.58061 89.86480 10 Wangdue 27.48909 89.89807 11 Deothang 26.85977 91.46328 12 Mongar 27.27920 91.23576 13 Pemagatshel 27.03180 91.43053 14 Kanglung 27.27803 91.50153 15 Tyangtse 27.61523 91.49691 16 Haa 27.38653 89.27869 17 Paro 27.38714 89.41948 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA 18 Thimphu 27.44156 89.66277

Results Stations 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

Results Stations • Forecast Deviation 3.2% • Above Normal Forecast – probabilistic Sl no Station % Dev_Forecast B N A forecast 1 Bhur 5.0 26 31 43 • Paro & Thimphu – (-ve) deviation 2 Damphu 0.3 25 29 46 3 Pling 6.8 24 32 44 • Dagana and Paro (–ve) deviation but 4 Sipsu 2.4 24 32 44 Above normal forecast 5 Bumthang 5.4 25 30 45 6 Dagana -13.4 30 33 37 7 Trongsa 5.2 28 29 43 8 Zhemgang 4.8 26 31 43 9 Punakha 6.8 29 31 40 10 Wangdue 0.6 27 31 42 11 Deothang 15.3 22 33 45 12 Mongar 6.4 26 28 46 13 Pgatshel 1.9 23 33 44 14 Kanglung 4.3 24 32 44 15 Tyangtse 4.4 25 29 46 16 Haa 2.0 27 32 41 17 Paro -6.4 30 32 38 18 Thimphu 6.1 28 31 41 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA Average +3.2

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

Over all Bhutan forecast • 1996-2014 JJAS • Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) • Goodness Index=0.216 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

Results 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

Results • Forecast = 6.149% deviation • BNA = 24 24 52 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

CFS2_prcp_Apr_JJAS- Forecast • Goodness index =0.278 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

Results • Forecast of above below normal in northern Bhutan • Normal rain in southern region • Above normal in eastern 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

Conclusion Bhutan Monsoon 2015 • Station wise forecast= Above normal monsoon (normal range) • Over all combined Bhutan monsoon= Above Normal (normal range) • CFS2 • Below normal - northern • Normal – Southern • Above Normal - Eastern • Good performance from Average Bhutan monsoon rain combined • Bad performance on individual station Consensus • General forecast for Bhutan = normal rainfall with slightly (+) deviation 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

THANK YOU 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA