ASX Investor Hour DISCLAIMER: The following material was presented at ASX Investor Hour. The views, opinions or recommendations of the presenter are solely those of the presenter and do not in any way reflect the views, opinions, recommendations, of ASX Limited ABN 98 008 624 691 and its related bodies corporate (“ASX”). ASX makes no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy, completeness or currency of the content. The content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Independent advice should be obtained from an Australian financial services licensee before making investment decisions. To the extent permitted by law, ASX and its employees, officers and contractors shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided or omitted or from any one acting or refraining to act in reliance on this information. Presenter: Jim Berg, author Topic: When you should reinvest and how you should do it Date: 7 December 2011 Location: Melbourne Investor Hour
2 When you should reinvest and how you should do it Bull or Bear? JIM BERG Jim Berg
Bull or Bear? ASX 2011 DISCLAIMER Any projections made in this presentation are estimates only and no guarantee is provided that those projections will be realized. STE, Avestra and its officers, employees, agents, associates and alliance partners (“Associates”) may have or may obtain an interest in the securities referred to in this presentation and will receive commissions, brokerage and other fees from dealing in the securities or advising in respect of the proposed listing of the securities. STE believe that the information contained in this presentation was accurate at the time it was compiled. STE and Avestra do not warrant that the information contained in this presentation is accurate, complete, reliable or up to date and to the fullest extent permitted by law disclaims all liability of STE, Avestra and their Associates for any loss or damage suffered by any person by reason of the use by that person of, or their reliance on any information contained herein, whether arising from the negligence of STE, Avestra or its Associates or otherwise. Past performance is no indication of future performance. 3
BIG Picture “Trade with the Trend” TOOLS : Indices: ASX200 (XJO) ASX200 Financials (XXJ) S&P500 ($SPX) + Housing & Banks Shanghai Composite ($SC) Advances – Declining Issues (XTO_AD) Indicators: Moving Average Pivot Points 4
All Ords 4 Yrs.
“Trade with the Trend” Trends, like sail boats in a strong wind, are easier to ride in the direction they are going. Identify The Trend 6
Falling Trend ASX200
8 Rising Trend ? All Ords
GFC Bear ASX200 Rising Trend ?
10 WEEKLY CHART COAL & ALLIED Rising Trend BILLABONG (BBG)
12/06/2009 Rising Trend ASX200 Rising Trend ?
Rising Trend ASX200 12/06/2009 Rising Trend ?
13 NEPTUNE MARINE WEEKLY CHART
14 NEPTUNE MARINE Falling Trend DELISTED
15
Falling Trend All Ords 2007-08 Divergence ASX100 Advance-Decline (XTO_AD)
Falling Trend All Ords 2007-08 Falling Trend ASX Financials (XXJ)
Divergence ASX Financials (XXJ) 2009-10 All Ords
All Ords Divergence 2009-10 ASX100 Advance/Decline (XTO_AD)
Falling Trend Divergence All Ords 2011 Falling Trend ASX Financials (XXJ)
21 ASX 200 Index (XJO)
Where are We Now? • All Ordinaries Index (XAO) ASX200 Financials-x-REITS Sector (XXJ) • S&P 500 Index ($SPX) • • PHLX Bank Index ($BKX) • Shanghai Index ($SC)
All Ords Index (XAO)
ASX200 Financials-x-REIT (XXJ)
S&P 500 Index ($SPX)
PHLX Bank Index ($BKX)
Shanghai Index ($SC)
MENTOR - Questions 1) Teach : How markets work Indicators Multiple trading strategies * Tied to Software & Data - BEWARE 2) One comprehensive rule based trading system? 3) Do they trade that system & publish results? 28
JB Trading • WHAT shares to Trade Creating a Watchlist Fundamental Analysis WHEN to Trade • Identify the Trend HOW to Trade • Entry and Exit Signals Technical Analysis 29
JB Trading FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL Short (Daily) & Long Term (Weekly) INDUSTRY GROUP ANALYSIS – RISING TREND FUNDAMENTAL SHARE ANALYSIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RISING TREND OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’ SIGNAL VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNAL POSITION MANAGEMENT 30
WHAT SHARES TO TRADE Creating a Watchlist FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS • Broker Recommendations – Yearly Picks Software - ‘OracleSCAN’ Fundamental Criteria by Sector High Yield Price Discount to Target Price Newsletters – Expert Picks Magazines – YTE & AFR Smart Investor Newspaper- Takeover Targets TECHNICAL ANALYSIS • Charting Software Package – Watch Lists 31
JB BOOK WATCH LISTS: GLOBAL RECOVERY RESOURCES & ENERGY MINING SERVICES ALAN HULL’S PORTFOLIO (10) SMALL CAPS HIGH-YIELDING STOCKS PRICE DISCOUNT TO TARGET JB FUNDAMENTALS 32
Profit Margin > .01 Mkt Cap > 250 m OracleSCAN 33 EPS Grth > 5% PE Ratio < 25 ROE > 8%
TRADING STRATEGY PARTS OF A TRADING SYSTEM : • SETUP CONDITIONS – Rising Trend (Weekly Chart) • TIMING OF ENTRY – RSI(7) o/s, JB Volatility Entry • STOPS : INITIAL – Below the Recent Low TRAILING – JB Volatility Trailing Stop JB PROFIT TAKER • $$ MANAGEMENT - POSITION SIZING 34
35 COAL & ALLIED RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’ FALLING PRICE CHANGE AVERAGE OF RISING RSI COMPARES THE PRICE CHANGE TO
36 CALTEX RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’ FALLING PRICE CHANGE AVERAGE OF RISING RSI COMPARES THE PRICE CHANGE TO
37 AMCOR RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’ FALLING PRICE CHANGE AVERAGE OF RISING RSI COMPARES THE PRICE CHANGE TO
AMCOR VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNAL RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’ VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNAL 38
Volatility Entry Signal Close > 2*ATR(10) From Low Close > 2*($0.20)(10) From ($2.20) Close > ($0.40) (10) From ($2.20) = $2.60 39
JABIRU METALS 40 VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNAL RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’
Recent RSI Alerts – ASX300 41
42 BRAMBLES JB TRAILING STOP VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNAL RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’
43 COAL & ALLIED VOLATILITY ENTRY BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY BLUE BAR
44 CALTEX VOLATILITY ENTRY BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY BLUE BAR
45 Safe Starter Stocks
Rising Trend Silver Lake (SLR) Map Group (MAP) Sigma Pharm. (SIP) Discovery Met. (DML) Resolute Min. (RSG) Beach Energy (BPT) Regis Res. (RRL) Aston Res. (AZT) Mesoblast (MSB) Troy Res. (TRY) 46
47 Sigma Pharmaceuticals
48 Sigma Pharmaceuticals VOLATILITY ENTRY RSI ‘ALERT’ BLUE BAR
Sigma Pharmaceuticals BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY RSI ‘ALERT’ RSI ‘ALERT’
50 Regis Resources RSI ‘ALERT’ VOLATILITY ENTRY BLUE BAR
Regis Resources BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY ATAA Adel. RSI ‘ALERT’ RSI ‘ALERT’
MAP Group BLUE BAR VOLATILITY ENTRY RSI ‘ALERT’ RSI ‘ALERT’
Long-Term Investing From Volatility Entries 53 www.sharetradingeducation.com
54 COAL & ALLIED VOLATILITY ENTRY BLUE BAR RSI ‘ALERT’
55 JB TRAILING STOP COAL & ALLIED WEEKLY CHART ENTRY WEEK
56 CALTEX VOLATILITY ENTRY BLUE BAR RSI ‘ALERT’
JB TRAILING STOP 57 WEEKLY CHART CALTEX ENTRY WEEK
58 OIL SEARCH VOLATILITY ENTRY RSI ‘ALERT’ BLUE BAR
59 OIL SEARCH JB TRAILING STOP WEEKLY CHART ENTRY WEEK
What Am I Looking For Now? Industry Groups: Banks (XBAJ) • Commercial & Professional Services (XCSJ) • Consumer Services (XSRJ) • Diversified Financials (XDFJ) • Energy (XENJ) • Food & Staples Retailing (XFDJ) • Healthcare Equipment & Services (XHCJ) • Materials (XMAJ) • Pharmaceutical & Biotech (XPBJ) •
Consumer Services
Consumer Services
Diversified Financials
Diversified Financials
Health Care Equip. & Serv.
Health Care Equip. & Services
Energy
Energy
BECOME A MEMBER of Jim Berg’s Newsletter To receive your FREE copies of my: #1: DVD ‘How to Maximise Profits and Minimise Losses’ ($125 value) #2: Ebook ‘How to Write Your Own Trading Plan’ ($97 value) #3: Weight-of-Evidence Stock Selection Tool ($97 value) (Total $319 Bonus Value – Yours FREE Today Only ) Only $29.95/month - with no lock-in contract (N.B: This Special Offer is NOT available on the website) 69
www.sharetradingeducation.com 70 www.sharetradingeducation.com
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