AS TH S THE DU E DUST ST SE SETT TTLE LES S REV EVIS ISITING ITING MA MAND NDATE TE 2019 DISCUSSING THE NEW DRIVERS VOTING PATTERN IN INDIA ANALYSING THROUGH GROUND ZERO PSEPHOLOGY
INDEX • MACRO TRENDS/ BIG PICTURE • MICRO TRENDS • CASE STUDY (UP & BENGAL) • WHO DID NOT VOTE FOR MODI
MACRO TRENDS • DEPRECIATING VALUE OF CASTE IN DECIDING VOTING OUTCOME DALIT- GREATER CROSS VOTING TENDENCY IN DALITS JAAT- NEW EMERGING CONSCIOSNESS IN JAAT VOTERS IN 2019 ELECTION • EMERGENCE OF NEW SWING VOTER: THE INDIAN FEMALES
A. DEPRECIATING VALUE OF CASTE IN DECIDING VOTING OUTCOME. 1. GREATER CROSS VOTING TENDENCY IN DALITS 90% 80% 70% VOTE SHARE 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2014 2019 BJP 23% 35% ANTI-BJP 77% 65%
DALIT VOTERS IN 2019 ELECTION REASONING BEHIND VOTING VOTE SHARE IN 2019 FOR BJP IN 2019 80% 60% 70% 50% 60% 40% 50% 30% 40% 20% 30% 20% 10% 10% 0% MODI NATION 0% SCHEME FACE ALISM WOME MEN YOUTH N MEN 25% 40% 35% ANTI-BJP 72% 61% 63% WOMEN 30% 45% 25% BJP 30% 39% 37% YOUTH 30% 15% 55%
LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY SHOWING DALIT TREND • AGRA: JATAV DALIT DOMINATED SEAT WITH DALIT MORE THAN 30% • MISRIKH: INDICATOR SEAT IN CENTRAL UP WHERE NON JATAV IS MORE THAN JATAV. • LALGANJ: SEAT IN EASTERN UP WHICH IS KNOWN FOR JATAV , NON JATAV DIVIDE AND BSP HAS STRONG HOLD.
AGRA(UTTAR PRADESH): LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW DALIT TREND VOTE SHIFT IN DIFFERENT YEARS 60.00% 50.00% VOTE SHARE 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2009 2014 2019 BSP VOTE SHARE 29.98% 26.48% 38.01% BJP VOTE SJHARE 31.48% 54.53% 56.48%
AGRA(UTTAR PRADESH) TOTAL DALIT: 5 Lakhs DALIT VOTED FOR BJP: 52% VOTE SHARE OF BJP IN DIFFERENT DALIT COMMUNITIES 2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION MEN(25%) WOMEN(35%) YOUTH(40%)
MISRIKH(UTTAR PRADESH): LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW DALIT TREND VOTE SHARE OF BJP - BSP IN LAST THREE ELECTION 60% 50% VOTE SHARE 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2014 2019 BSP VOTE SHARE 34% 32.58% 41.33% BJP VOTE SHARE 10% 42.25% 52.05%
MISRIKH(UTTAR PRADESH) TOTAL DALIT: 4-5 Lakhs DALIT VOTED FOR BJP: 46-48% VOTE SHARE OF BJP IN DIFFERENT DALIT COMMUNITIES 2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION MEN(29%) WOMEN(36%) YOUTH(35%)
LALGANJ (UTTAR PRADESH): LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW DALIT TREND 60.00% 50.00% VOTE SHARE 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2009 2014 2019 BSP VOTE SHARE 31.59% 26.01% 54.01% BJP VOTE SHARE 25.52% 36.02% 37.19%
LALGANJ(UTTAR PRADESH) TOTAL DALIT: 25% DALIT VOTED FOR BJP: 8-10% VOTE SHARE OF BJP IN DIFFERENT DALIT COMMUNITIES 2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION MEN(28%) WOMEN(40%) YOUTH(32%)
JATAV VOTERS IN 2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION JATAV: 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MEN WOMEN YOUTH BJP 27% 40% 36% ANTI BJP 73% 60% 64%
MAIN REASON BEHIND JATAV VOTING PATTERN FOR BJP IN 2019 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% MODI FACE PERFORMANCE LOCAL ISSUES NATIONALISM MEN 29% 24% 27% 20% WOMEN 31% 43% 8% 18% YOUTH 32% 17% 13% 38%
NON JATAV VOTERS IN 2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION NON JATAV: 80% 70% 60% VOTE SHARE 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MEN WOMEN YOUTH BJP 58% 62% 68% ANTI BJP 42% 38% 32%
MAIN REASON BEHIND NON JATAV VOTING PATTERN FOR BJP IN 2019 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% MODI FACE PERFORMANCE LOCAL ISSUE NATIONALISM MEN 27% 19% 19% 35% WOMEN 29% 33% 15% 23% YOUTH 33% 12% 17% 38%
NEW EMERGING CONSCIOSNESS IN JAAT VOTERS IN 2019 ELECTION 70% 60% 50% VOTE SHARE 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MEN WOMEN YOUTH BJP 63% 59% 66% ANTI BJP 37% 41% 34%
LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW JAAT VOTER’S TREND • BAGPATH: JAAT VOTERS ARE SWING VOTERS. • MATHURA: APPROX 2 LAKHS JAAT VOTERS ARE THERE .
BAGPATH (UTTAR PRADESH): LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW JAAT TREND 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% VOTE SHARE 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2014 2019 BJP 42.15% 50.32% RLD 19.86% 48.07%
MATHURA(UTTAR PRADESH):LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW JAAT TREND 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% VOTE SHARE 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2014 2019 BJP 53.29% 60.88% RLD 22.62% 34.26%
VOTE SHARE OF BJP IN JAAT COMMUNITIES IN 2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION TOTAL JAAT: 4 LAKHS, JAAT TOTAL JAAT: 2 LAKHS, JAAT VOTED FOR BJP: 70% VOTED FOR BJP: 65% MATHURA BAGPATH MEN(30%) MEN(28%) WOMEN(41%) WOMEN(40%) YOUTH(29%) YOUTH(32%)
EMERGENCE OF NEW SWING VOTER: THE INDIAN FEMALES 2014(OUT OF TOTAL VOTE SHARE 2019(OUT OF TOTAL VOTE SHARE OF BJP) OF BJP) UP 19%(42%) 24%(49%) BENGAL 15%(17%) 28%(40%) TAMILNADU 6.5%(18.5%) 8%(18.48%) KARNATAKA 20%(43%) 24%(51.4%) KERALA 4%(10.85%) 7%(15.20%) PUNJAB 5%(8.70%) 7%(9.64%) HARIYANA 15%(34%) 28%(58.03%) HIMACHAL PRADESH 8%(53.84%) 25%(68.95%)
WOMEN VOTING PATTERN 70% 60% 50% VOTE SHARE 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2014 2019 BJP 34% 48% ANTI BJP 66% 52%
SEATS WHERE WOMEN VOTERS PLAYED AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN 2019 • SHIMLA(HIMACHAL PRADESH): IN THIS SEAT URBAN WOMEN VOTERS(ESPECIALLY YOUTH) ARE MORE DECIDING. • MACHHLISAHAR(UP): IN CENTRAL UP THIS SEAT IS DALIT DOMINATED SEAT. HERE WOMEN VOTED FOR CHANGE. • RANAGHAT(WEST BENGAL): AFTER THE PACHAYATI ELECTIONS, THE IMPORTANCE OF WOMEN HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY HERE.
SEAT WHERE WOMEN VOTERS PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN 2019 SHIMLA (HIMACHAL PRADESH) 100% 80% VOTE SHARE 60% 40% 20% 0% 18-30 30-50 50+ BJP 80% 65% 59% ANTI BJP 20% 35% 41%
SEATS WHERE WOMEN VOTERS PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN 2019 MACHHLISAHAR(UP) 100% 80% VOTE SHAE 60% 40% 20% 0% GENERAL MUSLIM OBC SC/ST BJP 70% 5% 40% 43% ANTI BJP 30% 95% 60% 57%
SEATS WHERE WOMEN VOTERS PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN 2019 RANAGHAT, WB 70% 60% VOTE SHARE 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 18-30 30-50 50+ BJP 45% 65% 50% ANTI BJP 55% 35% 50%
MICRO TRENDS • MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR TO WIN A CONSTITUENCY • INCREASE IN VALUE OF MAJORITY VOTE AND NEUTRALISATION OF MINORITY VOTE
MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR TO WIN A CONSTITUENCY PERFORMANCE/NON PERFORMANCE OF CANDIDATE 90% 80% 70% VOTE SHARE 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2014 2019 PERFORMANCE 60% 35% 20% NON 40% 65% 80% PERFORMANCE
TOP VOTE DRIVERS 2009 2014 2019 NATIONAL LEADERSHIP 27% 47% 65% WORK DONE INTENT OF 23% 20% 5% CANDIDATE WORK DONE DELIVERY OF 29% 8% 10% CANDIDATE LOCAL FACTOR 21% 25% 20%
PERFORMANCE/ NON PERFORMANCE OF CANDIDATE IN 2019 ELECTION • THIRUVANANTHAPURAM (KERALA): INSPITE OF MODI WAVE, PEOPLE HAVE SELECTED PERFORMANCE OF SHASHI THAROOR(INC). • KOLHAPUR(MAHARASTRA): LOST BECAUSE OF BAD PERFORMANCE OF THE CANDIDATE DHANANJAY (NCP). • BADAUN(UP): LOST DESPITE OF PERFORMANCE OF THE CANDIDATE DHARMENDRA YADAV(SP)
SEAT SHOWING PERFORMANCE/NON PERFORMANCE OF CANDIDATE IN 2019 ELECTION THIRUVANANTHAPURAM (K (KERALA) LOKSABHA ELECTION 2019 80% 70% VOTE SHARE 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MEN WOMEN YOUTH PERFORMANCE 55% 60% 70% NON 45% 40% 30% PERFORMANCE
SEAT SHOWING PERFORMANCE/NON PERFORMANCE OF CANDIDATE IN 2019 ELECTION KOLHAPUR(MAHARASTRA) LOKSABHA ELECTION 2019 70% 60% 50% VOTE SHARE 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MEN WOMEN YOUTH PERFORMANCE 57% 58% 60% NON PERFORMANCE 43% 42% 40%
SEAT SHOWING PERFORMANCE/NON PERFORMANCE OF CANDIDATE IN 2019 ELECTION BADAUN(UTTAR PRADESH) LOKSABHA ELECTION 2019 80% 70% 60% VOTE SHARE 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MEN WOMEN YOUTH PERFORMANCE 43% 30% 40% NON PERFORMANCE 57% 70% 60%
INCREASE IN VALUE OF MAJORITY VOTE AND NEUTRALISATION OF MINORITY VOTE MAJORITY: HINDU(69%) UTTAR PRADESH: SHRAWASTI MINORITY: MUSLIM(31%) 45% 40% VOTE SHARE 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2014 2019 MAJORITY VOTE 33% 41% MINORITY VOTE 2% 3%
INCREASE IN VALUE OF MAJORITY VOTE AND NEUTRALISATION OF MINORITY VOTE MAJORITY: HINDU(50%) KARIMGANJ(ASSAM) MINORITY: MUSLIM(50%) 90% 80% 70% VOTE SHARE 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MAJORITY MINORITY 2014 20% 80% 2019 40% 60%
ANALYSING THE HISTORIC RESULTS OF UP & BENGAL UTTAR PRADESH: VOTING PATTERN IN DIFFERENT REGION 2014 LOKSABHA ELECTION 70% 60% 50% VOTE SHARE 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% BUNDELKHAN WESTERN EAST CENTRAL D BJP 46% 45% 43% 39% ANTI BJP 54% 55% 57% 61%
UTTAR PRADESH: VOTING PATTERN IN DIFFERENT REGION 2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION 56% 54% 52% VOTE SHARE 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% BUNDELKHAN WESTERN EASTERN CENTRAL D BJP 50% 54% 47% 48% ANTI BJP 50% 46% 53% 52%
UTTAR PRADESH: HOW DIFFERENT COMMUNITY VOTED FOR BJP IN 2019 UTTAR PRADESH 60% 50% VOTE SHARE 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% BUNDELKHA WESTERN CENTRAL EASTERN ND MODI FACE 45% 36% 46% 48% LOCAL ISSUE 20% 26% 12% 23% NATIONALISM 35% 38% 42% 29%
BENGAL: VOTING PATTERN IN DIFFERENT REGION 2014 LOKSABHA ELECTION 100% 90% 80% 70% VOTE SHARE 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CENTRAL KOLKATA NORTH WEST NORTH REGION BJP 24% 15% 18% 13.34% ANTI BJP 76% 85.00% 82.00% 86.66%
BENGAL: VOTING PATTERN IN DIFFERENT REGION 2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION 70% 60% 50% VOTE SHARE 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% KOLKATA NORTH CENTRAL NORTH WEST REGION BJP 50% 34% 38% 45.00% ANTI BJP 50% 66.00% 62.00% 55.00%
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