Are We Too Relia Are We Too Relia ant on Migration? ant on - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Are We Too Relia Are We Too Relia ant on Migration? ant on Migration? New Zealand’s Demograph ic and Economic Challenges Paul Sp poonley Research Director/ /Regional Director / g College of Humanitie es and Social Sciences Massey U University 11 Apr il 2013 The Treasury y , Wellington

Demographic Shif fts and Challenges 1840s ‐ 1960s Colonial immig gration – British/Irish 1960s ‐ 1980s Pasifika labour migration 1990s ‐ 2010 Skilled migratio on/Asians 2011 ‐ 2030 Skilled labour r recruitment + Population rep Population rep lacement lacement + Population age eing + Regional imbal ances

Who Is An I Immigrant? • Cross ‐ border/transnatio onal links and activities • Divided “loyalties” • Repeat or circular migra R t i l i ation ti • Temporary vs permanen p y p nt migrants g

Nga Tangata O Oho Mairangi • Stock-flows accounting system a and demographic-economic interaction model (1986 2036) interaction model (1986-2036) • Household-familial experiences a and expectations (Households, employers, Yr 13 students)  Paul Spoonley, Trudie Cain, Robin Pea ace (Massey University)  Jacques Poot, Natalie Jackson, Michae el Cameron (University of Waikato)  Dave Mar é (MOTU)

Immigration P Policy Platform • Focus on HSI (“Economic” = = 60%) • Diversity of source countrie es • Two ‐ step (temporary to pe Two step (temporary to pe ermanent) ermanent) • Annual recruitment target (45,000 PLT) + Annual arrivals (80,000 ‐ 95, ,000 PLT) + Temporary work/students (120,000+)

Soft Citizenship p Expectations [There] is no economic and li ittle social pressure on aliens to become New Zealand citiz b N Z l d i i zens, nor does New Zealand d N Z l d seek to influence or persuade e aliens in this matter. It is considered better that re It is considered better that re esident aliens should esident aliens should themselves decide freely and d at leisure whether or not they wish to be New Zealand they wish to be New Zealand d citizens d citizens. Secre etary of Internal Affairs, 1960

Permanent inflows into selected d OECD and non ‐ OECD countries, as a percentage of to as a percentage of to otal population, 2010 otal population, 2010

Residence Approvals 07/08 011/012 Business/skilled / 27,303 2 20,431 Intern/Humanitarian 4,138 4 2,802 Parent Sibling Parent Sibling 5,177 5 5 5,177 5,708 5,708 Adult Child Uncapped Family 9,459 9 11,507 Totals 4 46,077 40,448

Residence Approvals 07/08 011/012 UK UK 10,030 10 030 UK UK 6,032 6 032 China 6,070 China 5,412 South Africa 4,166 India 5,220 Philippines 3,787 Philippines 3,277 India 3,293 Fiji 2,620 Fiji Fiji 3,044 3 044 South Africa South Africa 2 236 2,236

Annual permanent and long ‐ term migration flows, 1981/82–2011/12

Permanent and long ‐ term mi igration forecasts, 2013 ‐ 2014 (June y (June y years) years)

Nationality of Tempora ary Workers, Auckland 2003/04 / 2011/12 / UK India India India UK UK South Africa China China USA Fiji Fiji Fiji Fiji South Korea Philippines

Temporary to o Permanent Principal Skilled Migrants • 53% held Essential Skills vis sa (1:3) • 38% held a Student visa (1 38% held a Student visa (1 :5) :5) 11/ 11/ /12 /12 Essential Skills 22,000 Students Students 68 900 68,900

Population and Skills Retention PALT Flows Arrivals Departures ‐ /+ 09/10 82,300 65,800 +16,500 11/12 84,400 87,600 ‐ 3,200 ( (9,000) ) (48,600) ( ) ( ‐ 39,700) ( ) (MBIE 2013) (MBIE, 2013)

Net Losses/Gains to Aus stralia, September Years 1979 ‐ 32,173 1996 ‐ 10,389 1980 ‐ 24,400 1997 ‐ 13,090 1981 ‐ 28,621 1998 ‐ 16,266 1982 ‐ 15,129 1999 ‐ 22,662 1983 +977 2000 ‐ 26,113 1984 ‐ 2,345 2001 ‐ 28,359 1985 ‐ 16,741 2002 ‐ 12,854 1986 ‐ 24,836 2003 ‐ 9,310 1987 ‐ 18,212 2004 ‐ 13,609 1988 ‐ 31,319 2005 ‐ 20,697 1989 ‐ 26,568 , 2006 ‐ 23,102 , 1990 ‐ 3,802 2007 ‐ 26,194 1991 +1612 2008 ‐ 33,929 1992 ‐ 3,714 , 2009 ‐ 33,590 , 1993 ‐ 3,295 2010 ‐ 14,890 1994 ‐ 4,996 2011 ‐ 25,331 1995 1995 ‐ 8,260 8,260 2012 2012 ‐ 39,456 39,456

Components of population growth, 1993/94–2011/12

Populatio on Ageing • Declining birth rates → pro • Declining birth rates → pro opor � on in di ff erent age opor � on in di ff erent age groups • Longevity → increases %/n / no’s in older age groups ’ ld • Migra � on → loss of prime working age vs retirement migration Jackson and Pawar, 2013 Jackson and Pawar, 2013

Populatio n Ageing? 1. Shift from natural increase e (births exceed deaths) to to o Natural decline (deaths ex xceed births) 2 Cohorts entering workforc 2. Cohorts entering workforc ce exceeded by those ce exceeded by those existing N Jackson N. Jackson

Populatio on Ageing 1950s 1950s 2050s 2050s 65+ 300,000 1.7 million Dependency ratio (working age: 65+ +) 7:1 2:1 Life expectancy (65+) Males 12.1 28.4 Females Females 15 7 15.7 25 9 25.9

Number of people 15 ‐ 64 for every person over 65

Key thresholds indicatin ng end of growth phase • Onset of youth deficit (pro portion of population aged 15 ‐ 24 years declines below 15 ‐ 24 years declines below w 15 per cent) w 15 per cent) • Fewer people at labour ma arket ‘entry’ than ‘exit’ age (15 24 55 64 (15 ‐ 24: 55 ‐ 64 years; 20 ‐ 29: 20 29 : 60 ‐ 69 years) 60 69 ) • More elderly than children (65+ : 0 ‐ 14 years) • Key reproductive age popu ulation declines below 15 per cent of the population p p • More deaths than births (n natural decline) • Absolute decline Ab l t d li

Migration a and Ageing Net Losses • Reinforces natural increase • Reinforces natural increase e/decline? e/decline? • Cohort specific implication s (youth/prime age deficits)? Net Gains • Offsets “lost” births? • Skill or population gain? • Skill or population gain? Dual decline = natural d decline + net migration loss

Skilled Migrant Cate egory – Ages (11/12) Principal Principal Secondary Secondary 0 ‐ 19 ‐ 49 20 ‐ 29 20 ‐ 29 45 45 18 18 30 ‐ 39 36 20 40 ‐ 44 40 44 9 9 6 45 ‐ 49 6 4 50 50+ 4 4 3 MBIE, 2013

Share of NZ’s Future G Growth Will Be Most Une Une even even

Auckland – Immigran nt Dependency 2012 • Overseas born 40% • Overseas born plus childre • Overseas born plus childre n n 56% 56% Auc ckland Migrant 1996 998,000 2006 2006 1,208,000 1,208,000 300,000 (+210,000) 300,000 ( 210,000) Maré and Coleman, 2011

Ethnicity, Auckland a and Wellington, 2021 Auck kland Wellington Pakeha/European Pakeha/European 53 5 53 5 75 75 Asians 27 2 12 Pasifika P ifik 1 1 17 17 9 9 Maori 1 12 14

BNZ Employer Survey (2013) • All employers (NZ, repat p y ( , p t NZ, migrant) , g ) • Family/lifestyle reasons • Learn English g • NZ/repat • Consider regions • Consider regions • Migrant • Small size/low cosmopolitanis sm in regions

1. Policy/Policy Issue es Should NZ have a population policy? What would that policy look What would that policy look like? like?

2. Political/Policy Iss ues Immigration Given the changing nature Given the changing nature of both immigration supply of both immigration supply and demand issues, what a adjustments need to be made? made? • International competition/ • International competition/ /retention of skilled labour /retention of skilled labour • Employer engagement • Not be too restrictive (ie fa ( amily reunification/citizenship) • Address domestic anxieties s

3. Political/Policy Iss ues Population/Skills Distributio p / on • Auckland’s increasing dom inance • Regional imbalances • Regional imbalances – and and decline decline • Skills supply

4. Political/Policy Iss ues Tangata Whenua concerns Tangata Whenua concerns • Biculturalism vs multicultu Bi l li l i l ralism li • Employment displacement t • Diminution of ToW

Are We Too Relia nt on Migration? Risks • Key (central?) aspect of po • Key (central?) aspect of po pulation policy pulation policy • Regional implications (unev ven, Auckland ‐ centric) • Future competition for prim me working age, skilled labour Benefits • Geo ‐ political re ‐ orientation • Geo political re orientation n • Appeal (lifestyle brand) • Diversity dividend(s)