ANALYSIS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA PRIORITISATION OF RESEARCH PROGRAMMES USING PORTFOLIO BY' zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA J J M COYLE HVR CONSULTING SERVICES LTD ALTON HAMPSHIRE THE FOURTEENTH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON MILITARY OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, RMCS SHFUVENHAM SEPTEMBER 1997
E zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Prioritisation zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Of Research Programmes Using Portfolio Introduction Analysis 1. Need For Research Prioritisation 2. The Study Approach @ The Management Process zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ Difficulties In Managing Research zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA -I"-, zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1 + Pace of technological change + The activity/ability of commercial sectors + Interactions with Downey cycle Identifying Research - + Projects always laying claim to importance .- + Inertidmomentum of research I . + The savings and enhancements debate + Interpreting strategy papers etc. + Quantifying the value of research Prioritiskg Research + Different types of research (direct & indirect) 0.v 0 p - d h . d Primarily contributing to concept definition, zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ Overview Of Study @ ! Types Of Research + Direct Research ST - + Indirect Research - Primarily supporting research - e.g. Design and test methodologies 1
@ . zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Overall Methodology (1) The Methodology Introduce The Overall Methodology: a) Identifying New Research Needs b) Prioritising Research Needs Overall Methodology (2) zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ @ 0. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA n . " M 7 ' . 0 . 1 " a m , Identifying Research Needs Identifying Research Needs Prioritising Research Needs Step zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ Identifying Research Needs @ Identifying Research Needs exploitation of a core BMS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA U3 + Step 1 - Initial Problem Breakdown, Hi& Level - Pose The Master Question: Descriptions: ))e.g. "What research is necessary to achieve maximum )) e.g on a Bowman Brigade by 2002/5?" 2
Apply zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA ))This is supported by use of a set zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA of tables to act zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ Identifying Research Needs @ Identifying Research Needs Push zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA ........... Step 4 I SWO Analysis: - I I a checklist, audit bail ))Tables used arc Capability Pull and Te~hn010gy N A brainstorm activity @ Identifying Research Needs @ Identifying Research Needs Identify opportunities based on the previous stage Assess these to identify a research need - again a checklist will support this .... ...... . "_*.... *&I ....... *"" O " - " u d I . . . . , ' . . . . . . n I 1 I 1 I I I I I I I Capability Pull @ Identifying Research Needs @ Identifying Research Needs Example Of The Benefits Oppormnity Identification ........... . . . . . . . , Provision of a structured frameyork - ".,...'.,."',,.".. "ATCIIY .. . . . . "*"...~",.,-.,,-....h.n.~,n..,I.r*l...L~.~l.n""Yil " , , . " I . . . )) audit bail . . . . . . A . . . u - - I . , , . . i . )) a forum for debate Useful in assessment of strategy papers etc. - - Looks to future research needs rather than management of today's problems alone ......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I ...... *.,.I C " . , , . p.""".-..~"-."14C.+ " I " - % . . . . I .................... "..I""_ . " b . p . . . , V . . , " .,.h",-p". 3
@ Overall Methodology (2) Research Prioritisation Scoring Research ? zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ @ Research Prioritisation Portfolio Analysis -Advances zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA -Retention zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Need to “score” research -urgency -Coot - A Military Benefit In Technology -Risk Of Rewarch Expertise Mamtmlng A “Balance” Of Research - D I l u - r r @ @ Porlfolio Analysis History Subordinate Factors Group 1960s Boston Consulting + GE M&ix Mid 1970s - Plots Industry Aflracttvenm A p i m Compattwe Position Refemd Industry Appmach (Uwd By 75 Yo - Of Large US Fimu By 1981) 4
A Worked Example zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ @ Implications Competitive Position zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Hiih I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA -Monitor but zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Medium comptitir. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA LOW L I I P a i m . Sur -Tygct forgmwth md development make no did W u t c h m p - €.wminc U see if it is WO& continuing , Dog @ @ The Chosen Factors Application To ARP + Military Return + How can this be applied to military research? - needs to address the benefit that the research will - The "attractiveness" corresponds to the military offer e.g. urgency, filling an identified weakness return that research can deliver + Technology Stream The "strength" corresponds to the balance behveen - defence and commercial research capability - needs to address the strength of commercial sectors + Develop a set of sub-factors and metrics to in delivering the required research aims score these + Also can consider Cost, Risk separately @ The Sub Factors Military Return Metrics 5
@ Technology Stream Metrics zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ The Urgency Metrics LJF.n..d zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA A Portfolio Matrix zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA a - & o . . , Weighting Sub-Factors zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Apply zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ @ Saaty weighting to combine sub factor scores c , . " a . " & Or"-" hlOD should invest zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ The Military Returnflechnology Matrix @ Summary Of Approach as tesh.inwdon assignments moving on the portfolio matrix zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA MOD mun inven + H a s Medium Priority a proven pedigree Hi& Pri@y \ - industry, DRA Malvern + Provides a structured, auditable approach + Offers a decision support tool to aid debate - sensitivity analysis )>weights - trends i.e. in which direction are research Technology Stream MOD should not invesmenu only invoir directly Lawmedium Priority Low Priorirv 6
Applying Portfolio Analysis zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 19e Package Scoring An Assignment ' Example Scaring @ @ Scoring Military Return Scoring Technology @ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA will zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Add Example To The Portfolio Interpreting The Portfolio Assess the balance of investment across the assignments + Can carry out sensitivity analyses on the sub- factor weights May identify areas of research which deserve further scrutiny 7
@ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ Technology Weighting Military Weighting -- - - E - , Is the approach particularly zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Who zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA @ Assessing The Methodology Conclusions should cany out the scoring? + Have developed a methodology which What are the strengths of the approach? - wuld bc applied to identifying fuhne Rscarch ne& useful for some - provida a mute lo discriminate arsignmcnts s a packages? way of prioritiring research What are Potentially useful decision support tool the current limitations to the to pm of the 19e package Have applied t h i s approach? * W h a t i s the ideal forum in which the methodology could be applied? 8
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