An analysis of B.C.s Climate Leadership Plan December 5, 2016 2 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

An analysis of B.C.’s Climate Leadership Plan December 5, 2016

2 Table of Contents • Collaboration • Purpose • Methods – Approach – Scenarios – Assumptions • Results – Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Abatement – Renewable Energy • Conclusion and Next Steps

3 Collaboration Commissioned

4 Purpose • Our aim is to determine and make publicly available: • A reference case on provincial carbon pollution to 2050 • Provincial carbon pollution with climate leadership plan policies and the federal carbon price floor to 2050 • Sector by sector emissions and compare with the climate leadership plan to 2050 • Renewable energy and energy efficiency for both the reference case and under the climate leadership plan and federal carbon price • We also would like to support next steps with the province

5 Methods - Approach Navius CIMS/GEEM model (based on Clean Energy Canada analysis) Climate Leadership Plan Reference and Federal Scenario Carbon Floor • Annual carbon pollution Price • Sector emissions • Energy use and type

6 Methods - Scenarios Reference Scenario Climate Leadership Plan & Fed. Price • Existing policies including: • Existing policies, plus: • Carbon tax $30 t/CO 2eq • Carbon tax $50 by 2022 • Clean Energy Act – 93% non-emitting • 45% methane emission reduction sources • Low-carbon fuel standard increased to • Low-carbon fuel standard, 10% by 15% by 2030 2020 • Regulations that require more efficient • Existing building codes natural gas equipment • Clean Energy Vehicle Program @ $5000 • Net-zero ready building standard after per vehicle, to 2020 2032 • LNG performance standard – met at • Upstream natural gas electrification the facility • Industrial boilers post 2020 90% efficient • Landfill Gas • 90% diversion of organics by 2030 • 45% diversion organic waste by 2020 • Extend clean energy vehicle program to • Federal light and heavy duty vehicle 2030 and incentives for freight natural standard gas • 100% clean energy on incremental additions

7 Methods - Assumptions • Forestry: y: Deforestation, afforestation and forest management activities are not included in the model, but we do include the B.C. government’s estimates of these activities in 2050. • LNG: G: LNG production reaches 12 MT/yr in 2020, 36 MT/yr in 2025 and 48 MT/ yr in 2030 • Natural Ga l Gas: : • Natural gas production for LNG comes 75% from B.C. 25% from Alberta • Natural gas production rises to 5.4 bcf/day in 2020 and plateaus at 9.1 bcf/day • Natural gas production not for LNG remains flat at 4.2 bcf/day • Methane losses account for 0.5% of natural gas production • Othe her e exclu luded p poli licies • Carbon neutral government – Model can’t account for commitments • Federal clean fuel standard – Announced after final drafts & insufficient detail

8 Results – Carbon Pollution 80.0 Reference case 70.0 60.0 Annual emissions in Mt CO2e CLP & federal carbon price 50.0 -30% from 2005, based on federal target BC 2020 target 40.0 CLP & federal carbon price 53 MT GAP with forestry abatement 41 MT 30.0 GAP 20.0 BC 2050 target 10.0 0.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

9 Results – Carbon Pollution 80 Reference emissions, 70 60 MtCO2e/yr 50 40 30 20 10 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 Buildings Transport Industry and Utilities (excluding gas) NG and LNG 80 CLP & federal carbon price 70 emissions Mt CO2e/yr 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2020 2030 2040 2050

10 Results – Reductions relative to reference case 12 CLP & federal carbon price abatement in Mt CO2e 10 8 6 4 2 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 Buildings Transport Industry and Utilities (excluding gas) NG and LNG

11 Results – Comparison between climate leadership plan and this analysis - 2050 Cli lima mate L Leadershi hip Thi his A Ana nalys lysis Pla lan ( n (MTCO 2e 2eq ) (MT (MTCO CO 2e 2eq ) NG & G & L LNG 5.0 4.0 Industry & Ind y & Ut Utili lities 2.0 2.9 Trans nsport 3.0 1.0 Build lding ngs 2.0 2.7 TO TOTAL 12.0 10.6

12 Results – Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 2,800 2,400 Energy Consumption in PJ 2,000 45% 38% 1,600 Fossil Fuel 1,200 56% 64% Renewable 800 62% 55% 400 44% 36% 0 Reference case, 2030 CLP & federal carbon price, Reference case, 2050 CLP & federal carbon price, 2030 2050

13 Conclusion and Next Steps • Emi missions ns c cont ntinu nue t to g grow: Emissions are expected to grow from today out to 2030, by 8 MTCO 2eq excluding potential forestry sequestration. • Reduction g n gap: : There remains a 53 MTCO 2eq gap in 2050, 41 MTCO 2eq if government estimates of forest sequestration are included • Fossil f l fuels ls r rema main d n domi mina nant nt: : Fossil fuel use remains 56% of energy supply in 2030. • Next s steps – – p poli licy d y details ls a and nd ne new a actions ns: : • Existing commitments in the climate leadership plan require details and funding and implementation • Additional action is needed to reduce emissions in-line with B.C. legislated 2050 target • Going forward, PICS, Pembina and Clean Energy Canada are committed to supporting the development and implementation of these next steps.

14 Contacts Syb ybil S l Seitzing nger – – PIC ICSDi Dir@uvic.c .ca Matt H Horne ne – – ma matth@ h@pemb mbina na.o .org Jeremy M y Moorho house – – je jeremy@ y@cle leane nene nergycana nada.o .org

15 Climate Plan and Our Analysis Sector Policy Coverage Se Sector CLP P Poli licies Thi his a ana nalys lysis p poli licies Natural gas and Methane, upstream Methane, upstream natural LNG natural gas electrification gas electrification Industry & Utilities Energy efficiency gas Energy efficiency gas boilers, incentives gas boilers, 100% RE electricity, equipment, 100% RE waste strategy electricity Buildings Energy efficient building Energy efficient building equipment, net-zero ready equipment, net-zero ready buildings, waste strategy buildings Transportation LCFS, Clean Energy LCFS, Clean Energy Vehicle Vehicle Program, LNG Program, LNG ferries and ferries, NG freight, renewable NG freight