Alaskas Economic Climate November 16th, 2016 Alaska Department of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Alaska’s Economic Climate November 16th, 2016 Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research Section, Neal Fried, Economist

Alaska—Past Long Term Trends No Longer A Road Map To The Future (basically 27 years of growth) Number of Jobs 1988-2008, 21 340,000 years of growth ends 320,000 Lost a few jobs in 300,000 in 2009 Dropping in 2016 280,000 260,000 240,000 1990 “full recovery” – record annual count begins and goes on for 19 years 220,000 Oil Alaska’s “Great Recession” Revenue 200,000 Party 180,000 160,000 *preliminary

Employment Growth Gone In 2016 In AK 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* -1.4% *based on first 6 months

This Is How Things Are Shaping Up In AK In 2016 Number of Jobs Gained and Lost in 2016, first 6 months -4,600 Total 800 Health Care 400 Federal Gov. 200 Local Gov. (100) Retail -2,400 Oil and Gas -1,500 PBS -1,400 ConstrucMon State gov. -1,200

Does this look like a recession?

Alaska's GDP Numbers Interesting Declined last 3 quarters--3rd, 4th of 2015 and another 1 percent during first quarter 2016 $ billions $59.3 $61.6 $59.9 $58.1 $55.4 $54.2 $52.8 $50.5 $49.3 $44.9 $40.3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source:BEA

Alaska's Personal Income Numbers Still Looking Good-- First 2 Quarters of 2016 Still Slightly Positive $41.3 $41.6 $ billions $34.9 $36.4 $36.9 $39.0 $30.9 $30.9 $32.5 $24.9 $26.4 $28.4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* Source: BEA *based on 2 quarters

Alaska Foreclosures Statewide, 1st Qrt 1980 - 2nd Qrt 2016 2500 Annual Vacancy Rates 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Municipality of Anchorage 4.3% 6.2% 5.2% 6.9% 4.7% 1.8% 2.6% 3.2% 3.8% Fairbanks North Star Borough 8.3% 5.8% 9.9% 12.0% 10.6% 5.0% 8.3% 15.6% 11.2% 2000 Juneau Borough 5.0% 3.8% 4.2% 4.9% 5.5% 4.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% Kenai Peninsula Borough 12.3% 5.1% 13.0% 9.4% 8.0% 8.6% 5.5% 6.7% 8.8% Ketchikan Gateway Borough 13.4% 17.8% 7.5% 8.4% 7.1% 12.0% 8.2% 10.4% 9.3% Kodiak Island Borough 7.5% 7.4% 8.2% 5.5% 4.0% 1.3% 2.3% 5.7% 8.0% Matanuska-Susitna Borough 6.2% 3.3% 5.0% 9.3% 5.6% 5.3% 3.5% 5.3% 3.6% Sitka Borough 8.1% 2.9% 4.4% 6.2% 11.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.2% 8.3% 1500 Valdez-Cordova CA 4.8% 8.3% 26.2% 8.6% 7.6% 6.4% 3.1% 3.5% 5.9% Wrangell Borough-Petersburg CA 17.5% 22.1% 8.2% 12.7% 8.8% 4.4% 4.4% 5.6% 9.7% Surveywide 6.6% 6.8% 7.2% 8.2% 6.7% 3.9% 4.4% 6.2% 5.8% Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis SecYon and the 1000 Alaska Housing Finance CorporaYon; Annual ResidenYal Rental Survey 500 0

Unemployment Rates, Alaska and U.S. January 2005 to September 2016 12% 10% U.S . 8% 6.9% Alaska 6% 5.0% 4% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Federal Employment Is Growing Again In AK 17,558 17,065 17,037 16,390 15,473 15,300 14,869 14,800 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* *based on first 9 months of 2016.

Military Numbers Have Trended Down Uniformed military in Alaska 24,449 23,195 23,141 23,004 22,675 22,438 21,989 21,067 20,914 20,838 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Alaska's Visitor Industry Fully Recovered Visitors 2,000,000 1,950,000 1,900,000 1,850,000 1,800,000 1,750,000 1,700,000 1,650,000 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Source: Mcdowell Group

Alcohol Consumption In Alaska--Any Pattern? Millions of gallons of beer, wine and liquor consumption in AK 18.5 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 17.9 17.8 17.5 17.4 17.0 16.6 16.3 15.8 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: AK Department of Revenue

Alaska's Timber Industy Employment--Not Much Change 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* *Based on first 6 months-qcew, 113,321,1153

Little Change For Mining Employment In Alaska 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* *Based on first 6 months-qcew,

Gold Looking Pre[y Shiny Again

An Economic Comeback Kid --Toying with Gold Rush Peak Gold production in thousands of troy ounces, 1900 to 2015 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 Source: Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys

Oil Industry Losses Began Last Year 400 100 2016 May June Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept -100 -200 -200 2015 -700 -1,300 -1,700 -1,700 *Total oil industry -2,000 -2,100 employment was -2,700 -2,600 10,300, September 2016 -3,200 -3,300 -3,500 -3,700

Previous Oil And Gas Employment Losses In AK -800 2,400 -2,200 - 1,400 -800 1985-1987 1991-1997 1998-1999 2001-2003 2015-2016* -9.0% -9.0% -15.0% -16.0% -21.0% *first 6 months of 2016 compared to same period of 2015

Alaska’s High Earners Under Thirty

Fishing Employment In AK Has Remained Largely PosiMve

State Government Employment 2015 2016 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept -500 -600 -700 *Total State -900 Government -1,000 -1,000 Employment was -1,100 24,400 September -1,200 -1,200 -1,200 2016 -1,300 -1,300 -1,300 -1,300 -1,400 -1,500 -1,500

Alaska’s Biggest Current Challenge- Oil Revenues

Part of the Exclusive Club Median Household Ranking State Income-2015 1 Maryland $75,847 2 Hawaii $73,486 3 Alaska $73,355 4 New Jersey $72,222 5 Connecticut $71,346 U.S. $55,775 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS,

• Alaska Leads U.S. States in Well-Being for First Time by Dan Wi\ers Story Highlights Hawaii and South Dakota round out top three well- being states West Virginia ranks last for the sixth straight year Hawaii and Colorado only states in top 10 every year since '08

AK's Population Grew Lots During The Great Recession But Now Slowing (2015 population was 737,625) 16,037 Annual gains 11,010 9,112 8,498 4,983 737 270 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

AK's Migration Story 8,664 3,009 1,251 1,131 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -2,346 -6,740 -6,774 2015 = 46,323 moved out, 39,549 moved, in for net loss of -6,774

Total Employment Change Same month, compared to the previous year 15,000 10,000 5,000 February, 1986 -900 (-0.4 %) 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 September, 1986 -18,500 (-7.5 %) -20,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

Months Of Over-the-year Job Losses For Selected Industries During Alaska’s 1980’s “Great Recession” Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Total Employment 25 months Mining 13 months ConstrucMon 56 months TransportaMon, CommunicaMon and UMliMes 46 months Trade 26 months Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 43 months Services and Miscellaneous 18 months State Government 18 months Local Government 23 months

Tuesday, January 27, 2015 But Laurence C. Smith warms right to Forecasting the future it in “The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future” (Plume, 2010). He’s a professor of earth, planetary, and space sciences at UCLA, and used model projections and data to form his main thesis: Countries north of the equator will grow ever more powerful, while countries to the south will vie for survival. Indeed, boomtowns will pop up in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Russia and Scandinavia. As the permafrost melts, we’ll build roads, bringing construction jobs and a real estate rush.

We Remain Solidly Akers When It Comes To Our Pickups Number of registered pickups 230,000 210,000 190,000 170,000 150,000 130,000 110,000 90,000 70,000 49,530 snow machines, peaked at 55,249 in 2008 50,000

Questions?