Tuomas FORSBERG Professor of International Relations University of Tampere "The impact of current EU-Russia relations on the Agri-food sector“, European Economic and Social Committee, Helsinki 7 July 2015
The historical evolution of the EU- Russia relations Formative period 1992-94 PCA agreement 1994 First ” time of troubles ” 1995 -1999 Russia’s war in Chechnya Putin’s European calling 2000-2003 ” Four Spaces ” 2003 Disappointments 2004-2007 Medvedev interlude 2008-11 Modernisation partnership Confrontation 2012 -> Ukraine crisis and sanctions
Issues: cooperation and disputes Economy trade energy Trade disputes Security Frozen conflicts Values and legal issus Human rights Visa Education and Culture Bologna process ” Shared Neighbourhood ”
Explaining the current crisis Four narratives: Russia’s growing authoritarianism The EU as an expansive empire The United States caused the conflict ” Sleepwalking ” into the crisis Or is it about Geopolitics – power relations? Interests – absense of common interest? Values – post-modern vs. traditional? Interaction dynamics: status and identities
What will happen Four scenarios Stalemate continues Modus vivendi - a return to practical cooperation EU wins (sanctions bite and Russia gives up) Russia wins (EU disintegrates and gives up) + War?
What should be done? A grand bargain? Yalta II / Helsinki II Practical cooperation where possible – a bottom up approach? Containment & damage limitation as long as a real chance to return to cooperation emerges?
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