Agenda 9:00 Introductions 9:05 Update to Scenario Planning 10:00 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Combined Technical Workgroup Meeting Feb 21, 2019, 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. Missouri Water Resources Plan

Agenda 9:00 Introductions 9:05 Update to Scenario Planning 10:00 Infrastructure Update 10:30 BREAK 10:45 Strategies to Address Impacts 12:00 Adjourn 2

Proposed Scenarios for Missouri Plan 3

Missouri Planning Scenarios Water M&I Ag Treatment Supply Reservoir Scenario Demands Demands Climate Level Constraints Regulations • Baseline M&I • Med Ag • Historical • Existing • No water supply • No re-allocation of USACE Business-As- demands irrigation temperatures water constraints reservoirs for supply Usual treatment • Baseline Rural • Med Ag • Historical • Existing permitting process levels demands processing precipitation for new reservoirs • High M&I • High Ag • Hotter • High • Interstate diversions • Limited re-allocation of Strong demands irrigation temperatures increase in out of Missouri River USACE reservoirs for supply Economy/ water Basin High Water • Higher Rural • Med-High Ag • Lower rainfall • Streamlined permitting treatment Stress • Limitations on GW demands processing process for new reservoirs levels (select areas) • Prolonged supply disruption on River intakes • Baseline M&I • Med Ag • Warmer • Moderate • Interstate diversions • Limited re-allocation of Substantial demands irrigation temperatures increase in out of Missouri River USACE reservoirs for supply Agricultural water Basin Expansion • Baseline Rural • Highest Ag • Greater rainfall • Existing permitting process treatment • Limitations on GW demands processing for new reservoirs levels (select areas) • Low M&I • Med Ag • Warmer • Existing • No water supply • No re-allocation of USACE Weak demands irrigation temperatures water constraints reservoirs for supply Economy/ treatment Low Water • Baseline Rural • Med Ag • Greater rainfall • Existing permitting process levels Stress demands processing for new reservoirs 4

Quantification of Scenario Planning Drivers 5

Scenario Drivers  M&I Demands  Agricultural Demands  Climate  Supply Constraints  Water Treatment Levels  Regulations 6

Missouri Planning Scenarios for Drought-of-Record Conditions Overall Impact to Surface Percent Change Supply Constraints 1 Scenario M&I Demands Ag Demands Climate Water Supply and Demands from Baseline Category Statewide (mgd) Statewide (%) M&I Demands: 624 Baseline M&I and Med Ag Irr and Reservoir Business-As- Historical T Ag Demands: 311 no change Baseline Rural Med Ag Sedimentation Supply (streamflow 2 ): 9,358 from normal Usual and P Demands Processing 9% Reduction in Flow Missouri River flow 3 : 15,587 Category Statewide (mgd) Statewide (%) Reservoir High M&I and M&I Demands: 820 31% Sedimentation and Higher Rural Strong High Ag Irr and Ag Demands: 970 212% Hotter T and Interstate Demands Economy/High Med-High Ag Supply (streamflow 2 ): 8,478 -9% Lower P Diversions out of Missouri River flow 3 : Water Stress M&I Demands +25% Processing 13,189 -15% Missouri River Rural Demands +10% 14% Reduction in Flow Reservoir Category Statewide (mgd) Statewide (%) M&I Demands: 644 3% Sedimentation and Substantial Baseline M&I and Med Ag Irr and Ag Demands: 228 -27% Warmer T and Interstate Supply (streamflow 2 ): Agricultural Baseline Rural Highest Ag 10,573 13% Greater P Diversions out of Missouri River flow 3 : 13,189 -15% Expansion Demands Processing Missouri River 14% Reduction in Flow Category Statewide (mgd) Statewide (%) Low M&I and M&I Demands: 584 -6% Weak Med Ag Irr and Reservoir Baseline Rural Warmer T and Ag Demands: 228 -27% Economy/Low Med Ag sedimentation Demands Supply (streamflow 2 ): Greater P 10,573 13% Water Stress Processing 9% Reduction in Flow Missouri River flow 3 : M&I Demands -10% 15,587 0% Rural Demands +10% Notes: 1 Limitations on groundwater and prolonged supply disruptions on Missouri River intakes are also part of some scenarios. 2 Streamflow generated in Missouri only. 7 3 Missouri River flow entering Missouri (not climate adjusted).

Strong Economy / High Water Stress Scenario Methods and Assumptions  Additional population growth by 2060:  +25% in urban counties  +10% in rural counties  Applies to these sectors:  Major Water Systems (by major water system)  Self-supplied Residential and Minor Systems (at the county level)  Self-supplied Non-residential  Agriculture Irrigation  Sources of water are assumed equal to 2016 proportions (except more Ag irrigation demand from groundwater)  Hotter temperatures and lower rainfall trends 8

Substantial Agriculture Expansion Methods and Assumptions  Applies to two sectors:  Self-supplied Nonresidential (by agriculture industry)  Baseline demands for all other sectors  Sources of water are assumed equal to 2016 proportions 9

Major Water Systems Demand by Scenario 1,300 1,200 1,182 1,100 Total Water Demand (MGD) 1,000 963 900 882 807 800 700 600 2016 2030 2040 2050 2060 Low M&I Demand Baseline Demand High M&I and Rural Demand 10

Self-Supplied Residential and Minor Systems 120 102 100 Total Water Demand (MGD) 86 80 73 60 40 20 0 2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Baseline High Rural Demand Note: Low Rural Demands were not calculated since they were not part of an scenario. 11

Self-Supplied Nonresidential 60 58.4 Total Water Demand (MGD) 58 57.5 56.7 56 54 52 50.2 50 48 2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 High Agriculture Processing Med-High Agriculture Processing Baseline Note: It is unknown when new self supplied nonresidential facilities will be brought online therefore is assumed a percentage increase from baseline. 12

Agriculture Irrigation and Livestock 5,000 4,860 Total Water Demand (MGD) 4,000 3,000 2,606 2,181 2,594 2,000 1,000 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Scenario 1 Business -As-Usual (Med Ag Irrigation) Scenario 2 Strong Economy/High Water Stress (High Ag Irrigation) Scenario 3 Substantial Agricultural Expansion (Med Ag Irrigation) 13

Climate Adjustment Factors for M&I Demands High Water Stress  Developed using weather-demand regression model specific to MO and climate change model outputs  Resulting adjustment factors by basin/HUC  Multiplied by future projections to represent climate scenarios  Hot/Dry – 8% to 12% increases  Warm/Wet – 4% to 7% increases 14

Update to Scenario Planning 15

Climate change and groundwater recharge 16

Climate Variability – Projections  Ensembling (grouping): HOT/DRY (1) and WARM/WET (3) Selected for Scenarios Annual P and T Projection Anomalies Annual P and T Projection Anomalies Mean Annual P Change (%) Mean Annual P Change (%) -15% -15% -10% -10% -5% -5% 0% 0% 5% 5% 10% 10% 15% 15% 20% 20% 25% 25% 30% 30% 35% 35% 6 6 DRY WET 5 5 1. 1. 2. 2. HOT Mean Annual T Change ('C) Mean Annual T Change ('C) 4 4 5. 5. 3 3 2 2 WARM 3. 3. 4. 4. 1 1 0 0 17

Climate Variability – Recharge Projections  Gridded runoff:  Each GCM projection (precipitation and temperature) used as input to macroscale hydrologic model (VIC)  Applied for same 1/8th degree grid  Spatially distributed; coarsely calibrated at large basin scale  Output = monthly runoff and ET projections for each grid cell 18

Climate Variability – Recharge Projections  Net Recharge was calculated for each grid cell and each month as: Precip – ET – Runoff = Net Recharge* * Change in subsurface storage. If positive, then recharge. If negative, then net loss through ET (soil evap + ET through deep roots) + baseflow losses (subsurface runoff). 19

Climate Variability – Hot/Dry Changes for 2060 NW Corner Avg. Avg. Temperature Precipitation Change Term Change ('C) Factor Jan 3.88 1.15 Feb 3.43 1.17 Avg. Avg. Avg. Avg. Mar 3.48 1.19 Temperature Temperature Precipitation Precipitation Apr 2.98 1.18 Change Term Change Term Change Change May 3.28 1.04 Central Jun 3.91 0.89 ('C) ('C) Factor Factor Jul 4.32 0.82 Jan Jan 3.14 3.14 1.01 1.01 Avg. Avg. Aug 4.37 0.83 Feb Feb 2.95 2.95 1.08 1.08 Temperature Precipitation Sep 4.34 0.95 Mar Mar 2.85 2.85 1.11 1.11 Change Term Change Oct 3.92 1.01 Apr Apr 3.04 3.04 1.07 1.07 ('C) Factor Nov 3.36 1.06 May May 3.30 3.30 0.98 0.98 Jan 3.57 1.08 Dec 4.17 1.10 Jun Jun 3.88 3.88 0.91 0.91 Feb 3.21 1.13 Jul Jul 4.18 4.18 0.90 0.90 Mar 3.15 1.12 Aug Aug 4.31 4.31 0.92 0.92 Apr 2.92 1.16 Sep Sep 4.25 4.25 1.00 1.00 May 3.25 1.02 Oct Oct 3.82 3.82 0.99 0.99 Jun 3.86 0.89 Nov Nov 3.04 3.04 1.01 1.01 Jul 4.18 0.85 Dec Dec 3.46 3.46 1.07 1.07 Aug 4.25 0.90 Sep 4.18 0.94 SE Corner Oct 3.91 0.96 Nov 3.24 1.00 Dec 3.80 1.05 20 Image of precipitation contours from Surface Water Resources of Missouri, MoDNR, 1995

Monthly Net Recharge - Central Grid Cell Hot/Dry Climate Conditions 1.5 Net Recharge in Inches per Month Most recharge occurs in winter 1.0 months 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 21