A Very Different Maine Charles S Colgan Muskie School of Public - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A Very Different Maine Charles S Colgan Muskie School of Public Service University of Southern Maine

The long long echoes of the baby boom and the birth dearth 450 2010-20 2020-30 2030-40 2040-50 400 350 300 Born in The 2000s Born in Thousands The 1980s 250 20-34 200 65+ 150 Leading Edge Trailing Edge Turns 80 Turns 80 Leading Edge Trailing Edge 100 Turns 65 Turns 65 50 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049

Maine v. US 100% 6% 7% 9% 13% 7% 90% 9% 10% 80% 13% 32% 70% popGT74 28% 36% 60% 29% pop65_74 50% pop41_64 27% 40% 26% 23% pop21_40 24% 30% popLT21 20% 28% 26% 25% 10% 21% 0% ME10 US 10 ME30 US 2030

Maine Age Distribution 100% 7.4% 9.0% 12.9% 15.8% 90% 8.5% 12.5% 80% 13.3% 10.6% 70% 36.5% popGT74 32.4% 60% 28.8% 30.7% pop65_74 50% pop41_64 40% pop21_40 22.9% 24.7% 24.4% 22.6% 30% popLT21 20% 24.7% 21.3% 10% 20.6% 20.3% 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040

Median Age: 2013 46 44 44 42.5 42.3 42 40.5 39.9 39.4 40 38 36.8 36 34 32

New England Age Distribution 100% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.9% 90% 7.3% 7.1% 7.9% 7.3% 8.6% 9.0% 80% 70% 35.9% 36.6% 35.8% 38.5% 37.6% 38.2% 60% 50% popGT74 40% pop65_74 27.8% 29.7% 29.3% 27.0% 27.0% 26.1% 30% pop35_64 20% pop21_34 22.1% 10% 21.2% 20.9% 21.1% 20.7% 19.8% popLT21 0%

Regions will converge to the state average share of >65 population over the next 20 years, but Cumberland County will stay the “youngest” and the Midcoast the “oldest” 1.4 1.2 1.0 Ratop to Maine Share 0.8 pop65_74 popGT74 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 ARSTK10 ARSTK30 CUMB10 CUMB30 YORK10 YORK30 AFO10 AFO30 HWPP10 HWPP30 KS10 KS30 WKLS10 WKLS30

The older population is mostly in the rural rim and along the coast, but is moving into the center

Population growth now shifts to migration Source: Census, Maine Center for Business and Economic Research

Migration and Employment Source: Census, Maine Center for Business and Economic Research

What if the future looks like the last 10 Years? Maine Population Forecasts 2020-2040 1,500,000 1,450,000 1,400,000 1,350,000 1,300,000 1,250,000 1,200,000 1,150,000 202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040 Base Alternate

What happens to Employment if we don’t replace the Baby Boom 0 -5 Thousands of Jobs -10 -15 -20 -25 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 Migration -50% Migration-90%

Labor is going to cost more Labor Cost Index: Maine v. US 0.9795 0.9790 0.9785 0.9780 0.9775 0.9770 0.9765 0.9760 0.9755 0.9750 0.9745 0.9740 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Retirement Age Increasing

And People Expect to Work Longer

Aroostook residents were very confident that they would continue working even after they retired from their current job 1% 100% 4% 6% 90% 80% 70% 60% 79% 85% 75% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 18% 17% 14% 0% All Respondents Men Women Stop Completely At least some employment Don't Know 16

The Looming Governance Crisis

Population decline is already a fact of life from 2000- 2010 for 158 Maine Towns

The Crisis has hit first in Schools Maine School Districts

Public, Private and Non-Profit Organizations Networks Technology & Innovations Knowledge Spillovers Organizational Innovations