10/29/18 Quantitative Literacy and Quantitative Literacy and Global Warming Global Warming Key Connections: • Logic and critical thinking Jeff Bennett • Data interpretation and visualization jeff@bigkidscience.com • Mathematical modeling • Economic considerations • Probability/Risk Analysis • … www. www.globalwa warmingprimer.com A tale of two planets… A tale of two planets… 15°C 15°C 470°C 470°C (59°F) (59°F) (880°F) (880°F) Distance alone can’t explain it… In fact: Venus absorbs less sunlight than Earth (because of its reflective clouds) so “should” be cooler! How do we know the The Greenhouse Effect greenhouse effect is real? Test 1: Laboratory measurements (since 1859! Test 2: Compare predicted and actual planetary temperatures Without the greenhouse effect, Earth would be too cold for life! Net Result: Added Energy (Heat) in Lower Atmosphere 1
10/29/18 A tale of two planets… The Rising CO 2 Concentration The Rising CO 2 Concentration 15°C 470°C (59°F) (880°F) Enough carbon dioxide to ~200,000 times as much make our planet livable. carbon dioxide as Earth. So the greenhouse effect is a Too much of a good thing! very good thing for life! What about before 1958? 800,000 Years of CO 2 Photo source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/ Ice core studies “Global Warming 1-2-3” 800,000 Years of CO 2 1. FACT : Carbon dioxide (a “greenhouse gas”) makes Earth warmer than it would be otherwise. • CO 2 today: ~40% higher than in past 800,000 years • On track to: double pre-industrial value in 50 to 60 years… triple that value by mid next century… • 2
10/29/18 “Global Warming 1-2-3” “Global Warming 1-2-3” 1. FACT : Carbon dioxide (a “greenhouse gas”) makes 1. FACT : Carbon dioxide (a “greenhouse gas”) makes Earth warmer than it would be otherwise. Earth warmer than it would be otherwise. 2. FACT : Use of fossil fuels (coal/oil/gas) is adding 2. FACT : Use of fossil fuels (coal/oil/gas) is adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. 3. CONCLUSION : We expect global warming to occur. Confirmation: The Warming is Underway… Global Average Temperature (Compared to 20 th Century Average) What we are now doing to the world … by adding greenhouse gases to the air at an unprecedented rate… is new in the experience of the Earth. It is mankind and Temperature Difference ( ° C) his activities which are changing the environment of our planet in damaging and dangerous ways. ( ° F) — British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Nov. 8, 1989 (in a speech to the United Nations) Ocean Warming It’s not the Sun… 3
10/29/18 Consequences of Global Warming 800,000 Years of Climate Change • Regional climate change Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Consequences of Global Warming Consequences of Global Warming • Regional climate change • Regional climate change Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Consequences of Global Warming Consequences of Global Warming • Regional climate change • Regional climate change N. N. Hemisphere Summer Temperatures N. N. Hemisphere Summer Temperatures Credit: James Hansen, as reproduced in New York Times Credit: James Hansen, as reproduced in New York Times 4
10/29/18 Consequences of Global Warming Consequences of Global Warming • Regional climate change • Regional climate change Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) The Colorado High Park wildfire. Credit: U.S. National Forest Service, from Wikimedia Commons Consequences of Global Warming Consequences of Global Warming • Regional climate change • Regional climate change • Increase in storms and extreme weather • Increase in storms and extreme weather Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Hurricane Patricia (2015). Credit: Scott Kelly, NASA Consequences of Global Warming Consequences of Global Warming • Regional climate change • Regional climate change • Increase in storms and extreme weather • Increase in storms and extreme weather • Melting of Sea Ice Energy drives storms and weather… Amplifies global warming! … and global warming is adding 250 trillion joules/s (0.5 W/m 2 ) to oceans/atmosphere Equiv. to: • 4 Hiroshima bombs /s • 500,000 lightning bolts/s Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) • 2 ongoing hurricanes • 3,000 cat. F5 tornadoes/day Arctic summer ice coverage 5
10/29/18 Consequences of Global Warming Consequences of Global Warming • Regional climate change • Regional climate change • Increase in storms and extreme weather • Increase in storms and extreme weather • Melting of Sea Ice • Melting of Sea Ice • Rising Sea Level • Rising Sea Level • Ocean acidification Regions that will be below sea level Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from Red = 1-meter rise; yellow = 6-meter rise Damage in New Jersey from the Hurricane Sandy storm surge (2012). Credit: W ikipedia/U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen And if Greenland and Antarctica fully melted… à Sea level rise >70 meters (240 ft) Change in a coral reef in the Florida Keys attributed to ocean acidification. Photos from www.climateinterpreter.org. A Solvable Problem A Solvable Problem Existing Technologies : • Efficiency e.g., incandescent bulbs waste 95% of energy input • Renewables e.g., solar power reaching Earth is 20,000 times current world power usage • Nuclear Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) new, safer technologies, with less waste CA energy from fossil fuels today ≈ 66% with closed/canceled nuclear ≈ 27% Socialized Costs of A Solvable Problem Fossil Fuels Future Technologies : • Algae-based biofuels or bacteria that remove CO 2 from air • Solar energy from space where it’s never cloudy • Nuclear fusion water from one kitchen faucet Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) could power U.S. • … and many more … 6
10/29/18 Socialized Costs of The Free-Market Solution Fossil Fuels Charge true costs of fossil fuels to users with H • carbon tax . • Health costs (NIH: at least $120 billion/yr) • Defense costs (DOD: at least $100 billion/yr) • Direct subsidies, tax write-offs (~$20+ billion/yr) • Terrorism/totalitarianism fueled by oil revenue • Environmental damage from spills, strip mines • … IMF 2015: global subsidy ~ $4 trillion/yr Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from (US ~ $1 trillion /yr) NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Note $1 trillion ≈ $3000/person in USA A Letter to Your Grandchildren — To be opened in 50 Years— Dear Grandchildren, As I write this in 2018, many people are arguing about whether global warming is a real problem and, if so, how serious it will be for you when you are my age. I have examined the evidence, and I have decided to … [fill in your decision] Hope your world is a good one… Love, Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from Figure from The Cosmic Perspective , 7ed (based on data from ______[your name here] NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) GW Resources Math for Life Statistical Reasoning for Using and Understanding (general public ) Everyday Life, 5e Mathematics, 7e storytimefromspace.com Future talks, primer online: www.globalwarmingprimer.com jeff@bigkidscience.com 7
10/29/18 Please download the FREE app Children’s Science Titles General Public Titles “Totality by Big Kid Science” ( Also Available in Spanish, Japanese ) A Global Warming Primer Textbooks 30% “Buy Direct” Discount Offer use link/code at: www.BigKidScience.com/books www.jeffreybennett.com (Also in Spanish!) jeff@bigkidscience.com @JeffreyOBennett 8
Quantitative Literacy and Global Warming Jeff Bennett jeff@bigkidscience.com www. www.globalwa warmingprimer.com
Quantitative Literacy and Global Warming Key Connections: • Logic and critical thinking • Data interpretation and visualization • Mathematical modeling • Economic considerations • Probability/Risk Analysis • …
A tale of two planets… 15°C 470°C (59°F) (880°F)
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