A N D I E R I M D T E M I L I G Y N E R E D A Y R T O V E S I N N I O T A T E N E S P R 30 April 2015
Disclaimer The information in this presentation was prepared by Meridian Energy with due care and attention. However, the information is supplied in summary form and is therefore not necessarily complete, and no representation is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. In addition, neither the company nor any of its directors, employees, shareholders nor any other person shall have liability whatsoever to any person for any loss (including, without limitation, arising from any fault or negligence) arising from this presentation or any information supplied in connection with it. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and projections. These reflect Meridian’s current expectations, based on what it thinks are reasonable assumptions. Meridian gives no warranty or representation as to its future financial performance or any future matter. Except as required by law or NZX or ASX listing rules, Meridian is not obliged to update this presentation after its release, even if things change materially. This presentation does not constitute financial advice. Further, this presentation is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy Meridian Energy securities and may not be relied upon in connection with any purchase of Meridian Energy securities. This presentation may contain a number of non-GAAP financial measures, including Energy Margin, EBITDAF, Underlying NPAT and gearing. Because they are not defined by GAAP or IFRS, Meridian's calculation of these measures may differ from similarly titled measures presented by other companies and they should not be considered in isolation from, or construed as an alternative to, other financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP. Although Meridian believes they provide useful information in measuring the financial performance and condition of Meridian's business, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these non-GAAP financial measures. The information contained in this presentation should be considered in conjunction with Meridian’s latest financial statements, which are available at: http://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/investors/reports-and-presentations/ All currency amounts are in New Zealand dollars unless stated otherwise. MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION 30 April 2015 2
Introduction Mark Binns MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION 30 April 2015
Today’s Presentation � Update on market dynamics, regulatory and technology changes � Key aspects of Meridian’s business � Overview of governance post listing � Covering: � Demand and Supply � Transmission Pricing � Water Reform � New Energy Technology � Strategic Asset Management � Future Generation Options � Retail � Remuneration � Governance and Role of Majority Shareholder MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION 30 April 2015 4
Meridian Attendees Mark Binns Neal Barclay Paul Chambers Jacqui Cleland Alan McCauley Chief Executive General Manager, Chief Financial Officer General Manager, General Manager, Retail Markets and Production Human Resources Grant Telfar Jason Stein Guy Waipara Chris More Gillian Blythe Janine Crossley Owen Hackston Strategy and Finance Treasury Manager General Counsel and General Manager, Strategy and Finance Markets and Investor Relations Company Secretary External Relations Production Manager MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION 30 April 2015 5
Topical Subjects � March 2015 was our fourth consecutive PUKAKI HYDRO STORAGE (29 APR 2015) GWh 2,000 month of below average inflows � Sufficient inflows to maintain reasonable 1,500 generation and stabilise storage 1,000 � Good inflows over the last few days 500 � Good supply of thermal generation in the 0 market Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 80yr Average 1992 2004 2008 2012 2013 Source: COMIT Hydro (NIWA) � Nothing new to say on the smelter POWERSHOP AUSTRALIA CUSTOMERS '000 40 � Early growth rates and customer feedback 30 on Powershop in NSW are encouraging 20 � The distance between the Coalition and 10 Labour positions on the RET has narrowed, now separated by just 1.5TWh pa 0 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Source: Meridian MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION 30 April 2015 6
Observations on the Market � New Zealand market is performing well by international standards � More rational cross-party political views � Highly competitive environment is unlikely to change � Market is getting its mind around the implications of possible Tiwai Point decisions MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION 30 April 2015 7
Demand and Supply Paul Chambers MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION 30 April 2015
Modelling National Demand for Electricity � Meridian maintains its own demand ����������������������������������� model ������ ������ � This model uses GDP, population, ����� ������ households, retail price as its key ������ variables ������������������ ������ � It shows a very close fit to the last 10 ������ years of history (including recent flat ������ demand) ������ ������ ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� Source: Meridian MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION 30 April 2015 9
New Zealand Electricity Demand 12 MONTH GEOGRAPHIC DEMAND GROWTH � Demand in the last 12 months is 2.1% higher than the preceding 12 months +3.4% � We have seen growth in nearly all regions +2.2% � Provincial New Zealand has led this +0.9% +3.1% growth +7.1% +4.4% -1.2% +1.1% -2.7% +0.1% Source: Transpower, Meridian +2.4% +2.1% +11.9% +14.6% +0.7% MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION 30 April 2015 10
Provincial New Zealand � Agricultural demand has grown most CANTERBURY DEMAND (EXCL CHRISTCHURCH) TWh strongly +2.3% 2,000 +6.9% +7.2% � The dairy value chain is a more intensive 1,500 user of electricity 1,000 +18.7% � Some growth is weather driven (Q1) 500 � We are seeing a genuine underlying 0 increase in demand 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Calendar Year Source: Transpower, Meridian OTAGO DEMAND TWh 1,000 +8.6% +6.9% +0.9% 800 600 +22.6% 400 (Q1) 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Calendar Year Source: Transpower, Meridian MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION 30 April 2015 11
Urban New Zealand AUCKLAND DEMAND � Low housing growth combined with TWh 10,000 +1.5% -1.3% increasing energy efficiency has -1.4% depressed urban regional growth in 8,000 recent years 6,000 � With positive net migration and GDP 4,000 +2.6% growth we are seeing renewed growth in (Q1) 2,000 all urban areas 0 � Except Wellington! 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Calendar Year Source: Transpower, Meridian Demand Split 2014 Calendar Year CHRISTCHURCH DEMAND TWh 4,000 +1.5% +1.6% -0.4% 3,000 Provincial 43% 2,000 Urban +2.5% 57% 1,000 (Q1) 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Calendar Year Source: Transpower, Meridian MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION 30 April 2015 12
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