May 2012 May 2012 A Major Shift in the Political Landscape Graphs for the report on the April 2012 National Survey
May 2012 Methodology National Survey – April 5 – 20, 2012 – 2,000 national face-to-face interviews: 500 interviews in each of the following regions: Baghdad, South, West, and Kurdistan — national results weighted representatively – Margin of error +/- 2.2 percent on full sample, +/- 4.4 percent on regional samples; +/- 2.9 on total Non- Kurdistan sample – The Kurdistan region sample reflects updated population estimates increasing Dohuk to 24 percent of the region Page 1
May 2012 A significant positive shift in the country mood Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction 60 U.S. Withdrawal 50 50 50 48 45 44 44 40 41 41 37 20 0 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 2
May 2012 Only Kurdistan sees a drop in right direction Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? Right Wrong ∆ from Oct ’11 +11 -6 +1 +5 +23 -20 +19 -10 -21 +24 80 65 60 64 58 50 48 40 44 35 35 32 26 20 0 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 3
May 2012 Perceptions of an improving economy help positive mood Would you say Iraq’s economy right now is strong or weak? Strong Weak 60 55 U.S. Withdrawal 52 49 46 40 38 34 34 33 20 0 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 4
May 2012 Positive mood brings significant jump in Maliki job approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-Maliki is doing as prime minister? Approve Disapprove 58 U.S. Withdrawal 60 54 54 53 53 44 40 40 40 39 34 20 0 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 5
May 2012 Maliki job approval up across regions and voter groups Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-Maliki is doing as prime minister? Approve Disapprove ∆ approve Oct. ’11 +19 +12 +34 +11 +1 +11 +7 +32 +14 100 99 87 80 83 80 75 72 60 64 57 53 40 44 39 30 28 20 23 17 16 10 1 0 Total Baghdad South West K'stan INA Da'wa Sadr ISCI voters voters voters voters Page 6
May 2012 Significant jump in Maliki favorable ratings Now , I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. % Favorable % Unfavorable U.S. Withdrawal 60 51 49 47 47 45 40 41 41 34 34 31 20 0 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Page 7
May 2012 Maliki favorability dramatically improves among base % Favorable % Unfavorable Δ favorable Oct ’11 +14 +13 +28 +4 -1 +20 +12 -3 100 80 73 60 66 54 40 45 20 3 5 21 14 0 17 23 -20 35 41 -40 58 67 -60 76 78 -80 -100 Total Baghdad South West K'stan Shia Non-Kurd Kurd Sunni Page 8
May 2012 Maliki has strongest rating of non-Kurd pols | Non- K’stan Now , I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (NON-KURDISTAN ONLY) % Favorable % Unfavorable Δ favorable Oct ’11 +17 +7 +7 +8 -2 +6 N/A -5* +2 -1 100 80 60 52 48 40 33 32 31 20 24 17 18 17 13 0 -20 33 35 48 48 50 -40 53 57 59 72 -60 73 -80 -100 Maliki Sadr Jaafari Hakim Allawi Nujaifi Amiri Mahdi Hashemi Mutlaq Page 9 * Last asked in November 2010
May 2012 Maliki’s favorability rises above Sadr’s | non - K’stan only Now , I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. Maliki - % Favorable Sadr - % Favorable 60 U.S. Withdrawal 52 46 45 41 40 48 40 43 39 35 35 20 0 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Page 10
May 2012 Maliki improves across all issues; outperforms Da’wa vote For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr? (NON-KURDISTAN ONLY) Maliki Hakim Sadr All/none/other/DK/ref Allawi ∆ Maliki ∆ Allawi Jul ’11 Jul ’11 49 3 8 16 24 Improving security +22 -6 -6 39 3 12 25 21 Improving basic services +20 37 5 14 23 21 Can end sectarianism +11 -8 34 3 5 38 20 More interested in power than helping N/A N/A 32 6 16 31 15 Fights corruption +15 -10 -5 +13 32 4 15 24 25 Creating jobs -6 +14 30 5 12 34 19 Can bring political stability -7 29 7 17 26 21 +5 Can unite Iraq 27 2 2 47 22 N/A N/A Acting like a dictator -6 22 10 19 28 21 +8 Cares about people like you 22 10 23 26 19 Helping the poor +9 -4 0 20 40 60 80 100 INA non- K’stan vote: 14% Da’wa non - K’stan vote: 26% Page 11
May 2012 Maliki “acting like a dictator” | non -Kurdistan For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr? (NON-KURDISTAN ONLY) ―Acting like a dictator‖ Maliki 80 60 64 40 27 20 14 0 Total non-Kurdistan Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Page 12
May 2012 Iraqis looking for a strong leader, despite drawbacks I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view. Statement 1: It is more important Statement 2: It is more important to have a strong leader to keep to ensure social and political Iraq stable, even if that means freedoms in Iraq, even if that means giving up some freedoms. some instability. 100 80 83 80 82 77 74 73 60 48 40 45 28 20 8 23 7 16 14 13 15 0 Total Baghdad South West K'stan Shia Non-Kurd Kurd Sunni Page 13
May 2012 Significant increase in Da’wa support Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. Iraqi National Accord Islamic Da'wa Party Sadr Trend ISCI Und/DK/Ref 30 U.S. Withdrawal 22 22 21 20 22 20 16 18 14 16 12 10 13 11 9 10 8 10 8 10 8 6 7 6 6 5 4 0 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 14
May 2012 Da’wa’s growth even stronger among likely voters Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. Δ likely voters Oct ’11 +8 -1 -1 -2 -2 -- -- -- 30 30 First bar = Total Second bar = Likely voters 22 20 13 12 12 12 10 11 10 10 6 6 5 4 0 2 2 0 Da'wa INA Sadr IFND ISCI NRT (No vote)(Und/ref) Page 15
May 2012 Da’wa separates from other parties in South, Baghdad Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. Islamic Da'wa Party Iraqi National Accord Sadr Trend ISCI IFND Δ Oct. ’11 +4 -4 -- +1 -1 +15 -3 -3 -3 +1 -- -- +2 -1 -1 40 38 30 27 23 20 16 16 15 13 10 9 9 6 2 5 5 1 1 0 Baghdad South West Page 16
May 2012 Negative mood of country intensifies in Kurdistan Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (KURDISTAN ONLY) Right direction Wrong direction 80 67 64 60 52 50 47 40 40 37 37 26 20 25 0 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 17
May 2012 Getting better or worse in Iraq | Kurdistan only Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (KURDISTAN ONLY) ∆ b etter Oct. ’11 Worse Better 7 89 Water supply +12 15 80 Electricity supply +18 38 56 Security +4 43 48 -15 Housing n/a Development of the oil industry 47 28 -6 60 28 Sectarianism 61 26 Distribution of oil revenues n/a 63 27 -16 Political instability 79 17 Job opportunities +5 -4 79 15 Corruption -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Page 18
May 2012 Yet majority still sees Kurdistan heading in right direction Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (KURDISTAN ONLY) Right direction Wrong direction 100 85 78 74 72 80 65 60 40 30 20 22 21 15 9 0 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 19
May 2012 Favorability of Kurdish parties improves | Kurdistan only % Favorable % Unfavorable Δ favorable Oct ’11 +10 +8 +18 +8 +13 100 80 60 59 55 40 39 20 30 26 0 22 24 -20 31 33 37 -40 -60 -80 -100 KDP PUK Goran KIU KOMAL Page 20
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