26 th ¡World ¡Gas ¡Conference ¡ 1 – 5 June 2015, Paris, France REPORT STUDY GROUP 2.1 UGS DATABASE Ladislav Goryl Vladimír Lorenc Chair of WOC2 SG 2.1 Leader NAFTA a.s.
SG 2.1 UGS Database UGS App SG 2.1 Aim • UGS statistical survey as of 2013 /updated 2014 • Data analysis & summary of general trends • Update of the UGS World Map • Extension of UGS Glossary • UGS App http://ugs.igu.org/ UGS Interactive map 2
Main Contributors SG ¡2.1 ¡Leader ¡ Main ¡Contributors ¡ Vladimír ¡Lorenc ¡ NAFTA ¡a.s. Joachim ¡Wallbrecht Storengy Marije ¡Wagter GasTerra ¡B.V. Kimberly ¡Denbow AGA Programming ¡& ¡visualiza<on ¡ Philippe ¡Meynard Storengy Emmanuelle ¡Wicquart EDF Vladimír ¡Lorenc ¡ NAFTA ¡a.s. Andreas ¡Böhmer EGS Igor ¡Olejník NAFTA ¡a.s. Ali ¡Teymouri NGSC Michael ¡Kreuz OMV ¡Gas ¡Storage, ¡GmbH Mária ¡Poláková NAFTA ¡a.s. 3 ¡
UGS per region...Where will the growth come from? 160 450% 450 darker shades 2015 North America lighter shades 2012 400% 140 400 Europe CIS China, Iran 350% 350 120 WGV (bcm) Others 300 and maybe 300% WGV (bcm) 100 250 250% South America WGV growth 80 200 200% 150 60 150% 100 40 100% 50 20 50% 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 0% 140 350% WGV 2015 WGV 2012 120 300% increase WGV 15 100 250% increase WGV 189 WGV (bcm) 4% 3% 80 200% 110 2195 149 60 150% 28% 38% 33% 2015 3122 2015 Total PWR 47% 40 100% Total WGV 6656 mcm/d 393 bcm 20 50% 1151 0 0% 119 USA Russia Ukraine Canada Netherlands France Austria Iran Hungary Uzbekistan United China Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Czech Spain Slovakia Romania Germany Italy 17% 30% North America CIS North America CIS Europe Middle-East Europe Middle-East w/o Russia’s 38,12 bcm long term strategic reserves which represents gas which might be used under special Asia Asia Pacific 4 ¡ Asia Asia Pacific circumstances with existing infrastructure L.America & Caribbean L.America & Caribbean
UGS in Europe...Essential for SoS 25 160% European ¡storages ¡in ¡a ¡nutshell ¡ WGV 2015 140% increase WGV 20 120% • Inherent part of energy infrastructure 110 bcm increase WGV WGV (bcm) 100% 15 at integrating market 500 bcma 80% 10 • Excellent source of physical flexibility 2,2 bcm/d 60% 40% • High utilization of storages & proved SoS tool 5 20% • >60 years safe & reliable operation 0 0% Germany Italy France Austria Hungary Czech Spain Slovakia Romania Poland Turkey Latvia Belgium Croatia Bulgaria Portugal Ireland Sweden United Denmark Serbia Netherlan Harsh winter time UGS covered LNG covered 20% supply Produc<on ¡vs. ¡demand ¡ only 5% 100 40 100 40 35 35 Supply share(%) Supply share(%) 80 80 Supply (bcm) 30 30 Supply (bcm) 25 25 60 60 20 20 40 40 15 15 10 10 20 20 5 5 0 0 0 0 bcm Supply share(%) bcm Supply share(%) 5 ¡ ENTSOG summr/winter outlook 2014/15
... but renewables are making their way through the energy system... 6 ¡
Renewables: Threat or opportunity? Key ¡highlights ¡ • 27% RES in EU by 2030 • RES will increase volatility in energy system • P2G innovative technology initiative • Gas & gas infrastructure may back up energy system • Technology for energy storage is there! • CH4+H2 mixture storage • SNG • H2 storage • CAES Commercial feasibility is missing so new innovations must come 7 ¡ Source: eon, GdF Suez, GerG, RAG, audi, Electrochaea,
UGS in North America...Momentum in deliverability Key ¡highlights ¡ WGV ¡development ¡in ¡US&Canada ¡ 200 • The largest gas market 840 bcma 150 • Shale gas revolution & new demand centres WGV (bcm) • Resilient gas infrastructure WGV 149 bcm 100 • Heating&Power generation: gas drivers UGS central 50 • Further projects aimed at deliverability and part of resilient 0 value added optimization 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 gas system in operation projects as of 2012 in operation as of 2015 accomodating Peak ¡withdrawal ¡rate ¡ Storage ¡usage ¡ ups&downs 120 U.S. Working Natural Gas in 358 100 >50% growth 12% 80 in salt caverns’ 60 peak 756 Storage (bcm) 2015 40 24% Total PWR 1750 withdrawal rate 20 3122 mcm/d 56% Storage level 0 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 258 8% Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan 2011 to Jan 2015 Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February, modified by IGU 2015, Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the 8 ¡ Gas Field Aquifer Salt Cavern Oil Field
UGS in CIS...Steady growth CIS ¡– ¡quick ¡overview ¡ 80 70 • Production but also significant consuming region 60 WGV (bcm) 50 640 bcma 40 • WGV 119 bcm covers gas consumption & export 30 • Further demand on deliverability 20 • UGSS is further expanded to strengthen 10 0 • reliability & SoS for residential consumers • exports to western&eastern markets 22% growth • 12 bcm projects planned till 2020 incl. salt caverns of rate per 120 80 triennium 70 100 Unit PWR (mcm/d/bcm) 60 WGV (bcm) 80 50 60 40 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 Gas Field Aquifer Salt Cavern Oil Field 9 ¡ w/o Russia’s 38,12 bcm long term strategic reserves which represents gas which might be used under special circumstances with existing infrastructure
UGS in Middle East…Focus on Iran WGV ¡growth ¡per ¡IGU ¡region ¡ Iran’s ¡UGS ¡ 160 450% • Gas market 160 bcma, Flexibility driven by R&C darker shades 2015 sector in large cities likeTehran lighter shades 2012 400% 140 • UGS developing rapidly WGV 6bcm in gas fields but 350% 120 WGV (bcm) lags behind winter gas peaks 300% 100 • Strategic plan to develop additional capacity 250% WGV growth 80 • 220 structures screened, 40 selected e.g. Nasr-Abad 200% Kashan Salt Dome, Yurt-e-Shah Aquifer,etc. 60 150% 40 100% Iran’s ¡UGS ¡ 20 50% 0 0% >400% WGV per triennium 10 ¡
UGS in Asia…Talk about China’s the greatest challenge China’s ¡drivers ¡ • Gas consumption > 200 bcm to double by 2030 • Increase of import dependency > 40% • Massive urbanization => flexibility • WGV 4,8 bcm => 30 bcm by 2025 for • peak shaving • SoS • Geology : Depth > 4000 m, Low permeability mD 35 30 25 WGV (bcm) 20 15 Planned UGS 10 5 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2025 in operation projects as of 2015 prognosis 11 ¡
UGS … New frontiers Asia: Latin America: India, Pakistan Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay etc. 12 ¡
¡ Thank ¡you ¡for ¡aNen<on ¡! ¡ ¡ Ladislav Goryl Vladimír Lorenc NAFTA a.s. NAFTA a.s. Tel.:+421 34 697 4535 Tel.:+421 34 697 4697 e-mail:ladislav.goryl@nafta.sk e-mail:vladimir.lorenc@nafta.sk www.nafta.sk 13 ¡
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