2020 State of the Ethanol Industry Geoff Cooper President & CEO Renewable Fuels Association 2020 National Ethanol Conference Houston, Texas
U.S. Ethanol Production 2019 SREs & trade wars 2012 drought 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 Billion Gallons 8.0 6.0 1996 drought 4.0 2.0 0.0 Source : Energy Information Administration (2019 estimate based on Jan.-Nov.)
Small Refinery Exemptions Small Refiner Exemption Petition Decisions Granted Denied Pending Ineligible 45 Decided by Obama Decided by Trump Administration Administration 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source : U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Ethanol Exports and Imports U.S. Ethanol Exports to Brazil, Canada, China, and Rest of World U.S. Ethanol Imports Rest of World Canada Brazil China 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 Million Gallons Million Gallons 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 - 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source : U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Agriculture
2019 Economic Impacts • 68,684 direct jobs • 280,327 indirect and induced jobs • $43 billion contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) • $23 billion in household income • $8 billion in tax revenues • Displaced 559 million barrels o f imported crude oil, keeping more than $30 billion in U.S. economy
Gallons Sold 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 Record E15 Sales - Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 EPA Summer Volatility Control Season Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Minnesota Monthly E15 Sales Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 2019 gallons in 500 million approximately E15 sales were Nationwide
trump
Seven Days in December • “Phase One” trade deal reached with China • EPA publishes final 2020 RVO with (some) SRE reallocation • EPA withdraws problematic RFS “reset” proposal • EPA announces it will revisit 500 MG remand volume • USDA commits to biofuel infrastructure program and EPA promises to streamline E15 regulatory burdens • House passes USMCA • President signs spending bill with biofuel tax extenders
“The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision.” —Helen Keller
The “Three Es” The “Three Cs” • E nergy Security • C lean Octane • E conomic Development • C arbon Reduction • E nvironmental Benefits • C hoice & Competition
Ethanol’s Octane Advantage Not approved by Blending Octane Number (AKI) of Various Gasoline Octane Sources automakers 120 Banned in 26 Significant U.S. states contributors to 115 117 tailpipe pollution 114 110 Known human 110 carcinogen 107 105 Regular Octane Number (AKI) Extremely 104 high grade 100 101 volatility pump 95 gasoline 95 94 (87 AKI) 93 90 85 84 80 75 70 Gasoline n-Butane Alkylate Reformate Benzene Toluene Xylene MTBE Ethanol Methanol Blendstock BTX Aromatics Sources : RFA; DOE; Chevron; MathPro, Inc.
Ethanol Carbon Intensity in California Carbon Intensity of Gasoline and Ethanol Under California LCFS Ethanol Gasoline 100.9 100 95.9 95 - 8% Carbon Intensity (g CO2e/MJ) 90 85 88.5 - 41% 80 75 70 65 60 59.3 55 50 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
“While the law of competition may be sometimes hard for the individual, it is best for the race…” —Andrew Carnegie
Low Carbon Octane Standard • Nationwide minimum octane requirement (preferably 98 RON) • Source of octane boost must reduce GHG emissions • RVP regulatory parity for all ethanol blends • Streamlining EPA’s fuel certification process • Substantially revising EPA emissions models (e.g., MOVES) • Retail infrastructure compatibility with higher blends • CAFE/GHG credits for FFVs and HOLC optimized vehicles
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