2019 economic outlook
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2019 Economic Outlook Scott Anderson, Ph.D., EVP & Chief - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2019 Economic Outlook Scott Anderson, Ph.D., EVP & Chief Economist, Bank of the West The Sacramento Sierra Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Presents 2019 Economic Forecast Crowne Plaza Sacramento, CA January 25, 2019 Let The Trade War


  1. 2019 Economic Outlook Scott Anderson, Ph.D., EVP & Chief Economist, Bank of the West The Sacramento Sierra Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Presents 2019 Economic Forecast Crowne Plaza Sacramento, CA January 25, 2019

  2. Let The Trade War Begin!!!!! 2

  3. Global Economy Losing Momentum 3

  4. Forecasting Deceleration in 2019 4

  5. Positive U.S. Economic Surprises Fading 5

  6. U.S. Labor Market Tight – How Much Tighter Can It Get? 6

  7. 20 Million Net New Jobs Created And Still Counting 7

  8. Job Growth Will Slow in 2019 8

  9. Unemployment Rate Starts to Rise By Q4 2019 9

  10. Consumers Keep Spending 10

  11. Real Earnings Growth Not Keeping Pace 11

  12. Slowdown in Consumer Spending Forecast 12

  13. No Investment Spending Boom Visible in the Data 13

  14. Housing Cycle Has Peaked in the U.S. and California 14

  15. Home Price Growth Moderates 15

  16. Treasury Yield Curve Flattest Since 2007 16

  17. Q2 Bounce Expected to be Peak U.S. Growth 17

  18. What’s In Store for Interest Rates? Jerome Powell Takes the Reigns 18

  19. Will Fed Rate Hikes Continue? 19

  20. Is the Next Move a Rate Hike or a Rate Cut? 20

  21. Prices for Most Commodities are Already Plunging 21

  22. Bond Market Inflation Expectations Have Moved Lower 22

  23. Interest Rate Outlook – Only Modest Increase From Here 23

  24. Can We Win a Trade War With China? 24

  25. The Economic Cost Of Trade War Escalation 25

  26. U.S. Equities Prices – Could They Fall Further? 26

  27. Corporate Credit Spreads Start to Rise from Historically Low Levels 27

  28. Is Sacramento Outperforming? 28

  29. Sacramento Job Growth Lagging Behind 29

  30. Bay Area and Stockton Lead the Way 30

  31. Sacramento Had a Good Month in December 31

  32. Government and Health Care Driving Job Creation in Sacramento 32

  33. Leaders And Laggards 33

  34. Sacramento Already Above Full-Employment 34

  35. Homebuilding Has Seen an Anemic Recovery This Cycle 35

  36. Sacramento Home Prices Steady 36

  37. Solid Housing Activity Could Continue For Awhile 37

  38. Disclosures: The preceding presentation is for educational purposes only. The discussions and information contained within the presentation should not be construed or used as a specific recommendation for the investment of assets of any customer of Bank of the West or its affiliates and is not intended as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to purchase or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does the information constitute advice or an expression of the Bank’s view as to whether a particular security or financi al instrument is appropriate for you and meets your financial objectives. Economic and market forecasts reflect subjective judgments and assumptions, and unexpected events may occur. Therefore, there can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Please consult with your financial advisor prior to making investment decisions. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Bank of the West Wealth Management Group offers products and services through Bank of the West and its various affiliates and subsidiaries. Bank of the West is a wholly owned subsidiary of BNP Paribas.

  39. THANK YOU Scott Anderson - Bank of the West Executive Vice President Chief Economist San Francisco, CA Scott.Anderson@bankofthewest.com bankofthewest.com

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