2015 4Q Results Presentation Athens, 25 February 2016
CONTENTS • Executive Summary • Industry Environment • Group Results Overview • Business Units Performance • Financial Results • Q&A 1
4Q15 KEY HIGHLIGHTS • 4Q15 Adj. EBITDA at € 184m ( € 171m LY) and Adj. Net Income at € 65m ( € 52m LY): – Robust refining margins and stable EUR/USD exchange rate – Higher utilisation of all group refineries both q-o-q and y-o-y, improved performance post maintenance – Record quarterly sales at 4m MT with exports at 53% – Increased domestic fuels demand (+6%), driven by Heating GO, despite recession (GDP at -2%) in 4Q15 • Record high FY15 Adj. EBITDA at € 758m and Adj. NI at € 268m • Oil price decline extended Inventory losses ( € 148m in 4Q15 and € 301m in FY15), negatively affecting IFRS Net results, at € -60m in 4Q15 and € 45m in FY15 • Operating cashflow (Adj. EBITDA – Capex) of € 593m supported uninterrupted operations during a most challenging year, with Net Debt ( € 1.1bn), flat y-o-y • Framework agreement with Iran for the settlement of payables from 2011-12 crude purchases and re- commencement of commercial relationship reduces balance sheet risk • May 2016 maturing Eurobond ($400m) to be repaid from Group’s existing reserves; Refinancing plans to be implemented depending on market conditions later in the year • Awarded exploration rights for Arta Preveza and NW Peloponisos areas (onshore) in Western Greece; Geophysical studies (seismic 3D) in W. Patraikos have been completed 2
4Q15 GROUP KEY FINANCIALS Adj. EBITDA ( € m) € million , IFRS 4Q FY Δ % Δ % 2014 2015 2014 2015 +8% 184 Income Statement 171 Sales Volume (MT'000) - Refining 3,981 4,070 2% 13,538 14,258 5% Sales Volume (MT'000) - Marketing 1,075 1,211 13% 4,131 4,672 13% Net Sales 2,383 1,803 -24% 9,478 7,303 -23% Segmental EBITDA - Refining, Supply & Trading 133 144 253 561 4Q14 4Q15 8% - Adj. EBIT ( € m) - Petrochemicals 25 25 0% 81 93 14% - Marketing 15 17 14% 90 107 19% +8% - Other -2 -2 -3% -7 -2 70% 131 121 Adjusted EBITDA * 171 184 8% 417 758 82% Share of operating profit of associates ** 6 2 28 22 -66% -24% Adjusted EBIT * (including Associates) 121 131 8% 240 581 - Finance costs - net -49 -48 3% -215 -201 7% Adjusted Net Income * 52 65 24% 2 268 - 4Q14 4Q15 IFRS Net Income ( € m) IFRS Reported EBITDA -206 31 - -84 444 - -60 45 IFRS Reported Net Income -228 74% -369 - Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Capital Employed 2,870 2,913 1% -60 Net Debt 1,140 1,122 -2% Capital Expenditure 51 34 -32% 136 165 22% (*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items -228 (**) Includes 35% share of operating profit of DEPA Group 4Q14 4Q15 3
CONTENTS • Executive Summary • Industry Environment • Group Results Overview • Business Units Performance • Financial Results • Q&A 4
INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT Crude oil prices recorded new lows in 4Q15, leading to inventory losses; EUR/USD remained flat at $1.1 level ICE Brent and EUR/USD • Global growth concerns and sustained 130 1.60 109 110 108 102 110 1.50 crude oversupply drive prices lower to 1.37 1.37 1.36 90 1.33 76 1.40 $44/bbl area 63 1.25 70 1.30 54 51 44 2014 2015 50 1.13 1.20 1.11 1.11 31-Dec 55 36 1.09 • Stable EUR/USD at $1.1 for 4 th 4Q 76 44 30 1.10 consecutive quarter 10 1.00 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Brent ($/bbl) EURUSD Crude differentials ($/bbl) 11.8 • Further narrowing of Brent – WTI 9.4 spread, as US production declined 6.7 6.6 6.2 5.6 5.6 4.0 • 2.6 Sour spreads at $1.5/bbl on increased 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.3 sour crude supply 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Brent-WTI Brent - Urals 5
INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT Robust refining benchmarks on sustained gasoline strength and wider crude spreads; middle distillates performance was weaker y-o-y Med benchmark margins** ($/bbl) Product Cracks* ($/bbl) FCC $/bbl 7.3 7.3 20 6.8 6.5 15 4.3 4.8 4.2 MOGAS 3.3 Diesel 10 2.6 2.2 5 Naptha 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 -5 Hydrocracking & FXC -10 7.2 -15 6.7 6.5 6.2 5.8 -20 4.7 4.5 3.9 3.4 3.1 -25 HSFO -30 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY (*) Brent based. 2014 2015 (**) Revised benchmark margins set post-upgrades and secondary feedstock pricing adjustment 6
DOMESTIC MARKET ENVIRONMENT Positive 1H15 trend reversed in 2H, following bank holiday and capital controls; auto-fuels flat y-o- y, with heating gasoil driving overall market demand growth +6% +22% Domestic Market demand* ( MT ‘000) -7% +6% 2,097 1,980 1,923 1,611 1,581 1,583 1,497 1,501 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q -11% 11,413 2014 2015 -8% LPG & Others 1,159 10,125 -17% 953 9,267 805 HGO 3,353 -15% +7% 7,727 +1% 2,932 7,103 765 6,669 2,883 6,599 829 +3% 813 751 1,983 1,389 +43% 971 ADO 2,837 930 2,518 2,224 2,066 +3% 2,248 2,358 2,427 MOGAS 4,064 3,722 3,355 2,913 2,670 2,527 2,458 -3% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (*) Does not include PPC and armed forces Source: Ministry of Production Restructuring, Environment and Energy 7
CONTENTS • Executive Summary • Industry Environment • Group Results Overview • Business Units Performance • Financial Results • Q&A 8
CAUSAL TRACK & SEGMENTAL RESULTS OVERVIEW 4Q 2015 P ositive refining backdrop and improved operations reflected in higher adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA causal track 4Q15 vs 4Q14 ( € m) 184 171 Environment Performance 2 7 25 20 MK 12 17 MK 15 25 Chems Chems 25 Refining, S&T Refining, 144 133 S&T Other Other (incl. E&P) (incl. E&P) -1 -2 4Q14 Benchmark FX MK performance Supply & Others 4Q15 Refining Margins Trading 9
CAUSAL TRACK & SEGMENTAL RESULTS OVERVIEW 2015 Record operating profitability reflects strong refining economics throughout 2015, despite turnaround opportunity cost Adjusted EBITDA causal track 2015 vs 2014 ( € m) 758 417 Performance Environment 1 20 30 MK 107 80 65 145 Chems 93 200 MK 90 Chems Refining, 81 561 S&T Refining, S&T 253 Other Other (incl. E&P) -7 -2 (incl. E&P) FY14 Benchmark FX Greek crisis Shut-down Asset Supply Others FY15 Refining (capital utilisation Margins controls) 10
PROFITABILITY Strong refining margins and operating performance reflected in results cyclicality and record high operating profitability and returns Adj. EBITDA ( € m) vs system margin ($/bbl) $/bbl 7 6.5 1,000 900 6 800 5 700 4.3 600 4 3.3 500 3 2.6 2.5 400 758 300 2 444 417 200 363 1 100 178 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Adj. EBITDA ( € m) FCC benchmark margin ($/bbl) 11
CASH FLOW PROFILE Strong operating cashflow and prudent liquidity management allowed uninterrupted operations during a most challenging year Free Cashflow from Operations (Adj. EBITDA less capex- € m) 593 281 188 188 150 121 120 66 68 27 12 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 FY14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 FY15 Net Debt evolution FY14-FY15 ( € m) 1.140 1.122 22 278 758 440 FY14 Net Debt EBITDA Interest, Tax, Working capital Others FY15 Net debt Capex, Dividends (inventory volumes, contago) 12
CAPEX Despite Aspropyrgos full T/A, capex in line with post-investment cycle run-rate; no major growth project in 2016 Capex evolution ( € m) 2015 Overview • Aspropyrgos full T/A included small growth projects (PP splitter capacity, 709 675 energy efficiency projects) 614 • Elefsina decoking and Thessaloniki 521 debottlenecking works • Retail network optimisation; growth of COMO network 2016 Plan: Main projects 165 136 • Maintenance works at Elefsina in 1Q16 112 (Hydrocracker catalysts and VDU) and Stay in business capex Thessaloniki full T/A 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • Selective expansion in Domestic and International Marketing 13
FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT WITH NIOC Iran payables agreement, positive for balance sheet and future crude supply options • Following the removal of US/EU sanctions on 16 January 2016 (“Implementation day” according to the P5+1 agreement reached on 7 July 2015), Hellenic Petroleum and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), reached a framework agreement on 22 January • Recommencement of commercial relationship offering an additional source of crude, in line with existing contract provisions; deliveries expected to start soon • Agreement for the settlement of payables from 2011-2012 crude purchases which were frozen, (following imposition of UN/US sanctions), de-risks balance sheet and is in line with the Group medium-term cash flow plans • Agreement implementation is subject to full compliance with current EU and International framework, including surviving sanctions 14
Recommend
More recommend
