Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Hampton Roads Real Estate Hampton Roads Real Estate Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Market Review and Forecast Market Review and Forecast Market Review and Forecast 2005 2005 Residential Market Presented by: The Center for Real Estate Presented by and Economic Development Van Rose 10 Year History of Resale and Hampton Roads Housing Stats - 2004 New Construction Closings • 7,265 Building Permits 2 5 0 0 0 • 5330 Closed New Home Sales 2 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 7049 7265 5330 4843 5 0 0 0 0 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2003 2004 2003 2004 R e s a l e N e w C o n s t r u c t i o n Permits Closings Growth of Home Sizes & Price Per Hampton Roads Housing Stats - 2004 Square Foot 2002 $170K $79 SF • Average Price of SF New Home 2150 SF 2003 $258K $104 SF $313,972 • An Increase of $56,624 or 22 % 2480 SF $313K $118 SF in one year 2004 • Average Price of SF Existing Home 2647 SF $207,527 2005 $398K $142 SF • An Increase of $34,654 or 20 % in one Year 2800 SF 1
Southside Market Share 1994 vs. 2004 Resale VS. New Construction Average Closing Prices for 2004 Single-Family Detached Homes $400,000 $365,384 $333,778 $314,936 $350,000 14% $270,338 36% NC $300,000 NC $225,871 $250,000 $220,339 $200,000 64% 86% $95,046 $150,000 $107,907 $94,597 Resale Resale $100,000 $50,000 $0 1994 2004 VB Ches Suff Resale NC Diff Southside Peninsula Resale VS. New Construction Average Closing Prices for 2003 Resale VS. New Construction Average Closing Prices for 2003 Single-Family Detached Homes Single-Family Detached Homes $350,000 $350,000 $320,599 $300,018 $310,230 $299,073 $277,145 $300,000 $300,000 $256,795 $258,726 $242,101 $240,363 $248,363 $250,000 $250,000 $164,984 $200,000 $156,825 $200,000 $124,354 $150,000 $121,572 $150,000 $118,791 $101,901 $117,747 $53,435 $83,379 $100,000 $20,581 $100,000 $22,664 $50,000 $50,000 $0 $0 H NN JCC YC Ports Norf I/W Resale NC Diff Resale NC Diff. Average Consumer Lot Costs Average Consumer Lot Costs Suffolk Chesapeake • Greystone - $117,146 • Governors Pointe - $199,492 $483,879 $700,000* • Ravenna - $127,509 • Nansemond River Estates - $87,996 $461,433 $354,418 • Cahoon Plantation - $151,300 • Hillpoint Greens - $125,916 $493,420 $354,146 • Edinburgh - $181,805 • The Riverfront - $179,591 $807,068 $533,316 * Projected Average Price 2
Average Consumer Lot Costs Average Consumer Lot Costs Virginia Beach Peninsula $555,655 $336,689 Lago Mar – $169,698 H Howe Farm– $85,825 Mansfield Farms – $272,766 N Port Warwick – $91,661 $661,379 $326,900 Bay Hill – $279,000 J Fords Colony – $129,028 $656,328 $476,382 Indian River Plantation -$194,529 Y Running Man - $89,717 $654,516 $423,782 RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST 1. Extremely Positive!!! REASONS: 1 . Hampton Roads Economics Hampton Roads Economic Stats - 2004 RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST � Employment has Grown Faster in Hampton Roads Than In The U.S. and Virginia Since Late in 2000 REASONS: � Hampton Roads Has Been Buffered from Recession by Increases in Military Pay 2 . Hampton Roads Housing Demand and Housing Allowances � Median Family Income National Average $ 43,300 Chesapeake $ 55,900 Virginia Beach $ 60,611 � Average MSA Military Pay $ 52,600 � Estimated 53,000 Retired Military in HR 3
Percent of Households That Purchased A Home in 2004 RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST Compared To The Total Number of Households In The MSA Charlotte NC MSA Raleigh/Durham MSA Total Closings Total Closings = 32,985 = 43,587 11 % of HH 8 % of HH REASONS: Total Households = Total Households = 273,561 506,000 3 . Hampton Roads Housing Supply Hampton Roads MSA Total Closings = 28,630 Total 5 % of HH Households = 581,578 Number of Homes Listed in December RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST 1998-2004 and January 2005 10000 REASONS: 8000 8582 6000 4. Effects of Interest Rates 6902 6449 4000 5200 (Mortgage Instruments) 4082 2000 2925 2764 2401 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2004 2005 Interest Rate Affect On Housing Affordability RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 MI $39,704 $42,448 $51,000 $53,900 $56,302 $56,624 REASONS: IR 8.2% 7.3% 7.3% 5.5% 5.25% 6.0% = = = = = = 5. Military Influence TM $154,000 $173,000 210,000 $260,000 $300,000 $275,000 With Down Payment $375,000 Interest Only $400,000 Interest Only W/ Down Payment $500,000 4
New Construction Closings By Price Points Defense Spending In Billions 1990 - 2005 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 3500 - 2209 420 3000 417 370 2500 320 355.1 379.9 +1105 329 270 2000 298 295 +1056 291 220 270 258 1500 238 230 223 221 170 218 203 219 1000 120 - 222 +439 +250 70 500 20 0 -30 100K 100K-199K 200-299K 300K-399K 400K-499K 500K + 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 THANK YOU! THAN K YOU! Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Market Review and Forecast Presented by: The Center for Real Estate and Economic Development 5
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