= + 2 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 1 Illinois - PDF document

I nfluence of W eather and Technology on Corn Yields Scott I rw in sirw in@uiuc.edu University of I llinois 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it The Profitability of I llinois Agriculture: W here to from Here? Conventional Wisdom = + 2 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 1

Illinois Corn Yields, 1960-2006 180 1996-2006: +3.1 bu./yr. 160 140 1960-1995: Yield (bu./acre) +1.5 bu./yr. 120 100 80 60 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 3 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it Illinois Corn Yields, 1960-2006 180 1992-2006: +2.0 bu./yr. 160 140 1960-1991: Yield (bu./acre) +1.4 bu./yr. 120 100 80 60 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 4 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 2

Regression Models of Corn Yield � Yield: State Average for Illinois, Indiana, Iowa � Technology: Linear Time Trend � Precipitation: Sep-Apr, May, June, July, August � Temperature: May, June, July, August � Weather Data: Monthly Average � Time Period: 1960-2006 5 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it Regression Models of Corn Yield � Yield: State Average for Illinois, Indiana, Iowa � Technology: Linear Time Trend Linear Time Trend � Precipitation: Sep-Apr, May, June June, July , July, , August � Temperature: May, June, July July, August , August � Model Fit over 1960-2006: •Illinois – Illinois – 95% 95% •Indiana – Indiana – 94% 94% •Iow Iowa – – 94% 6 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 3

Effects of Technology, 1960-2006 (assuming average w eather) 180 Illinois 160 Indiana Iowa 140 Yield (bu./acre) 120 Illinois: +1.9 bu./yr. Indiana: +1.8 bu./yr. 100 Iowa: +2.0 bu./yr. 80 60 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 7 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it Effects of Technology, 1960-2006 (assuming average w eather) 180 Illinois 160 Indiana Iowa 140 Yield (bu./acre) 120 Illinois: +1.9 bu./yr. Indiana: +1.8 bu./yr. 100 Iowa: +2.0 bu./yr. 80 60 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 8 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 4

Effects of Precipitation, 1960-2006 June Precipitation July Precipitation 60 60 Illinois 50 50 Illinois x Indiana x Indiana Iowa 40 40 x x Iowa x Yield (bu./acre) Yield (bu./acre) 30 30 x 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 -10 -10 -20 -20 Precipitation (inches) Precipitation (inches) Sunday Sunday Monday Monday Tuesday Tuesday Wednesday Wednesday Thursday Thursday Friday Friday S S aturday aturday Sunday Sunday Monday Monday Tuesday Tuesday Wednesday Wednesday Thursday Thursday Friday Friday S S aturday aturday 1 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 9 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it Effects of Temperature, 1960-2006 July Temperature August Temperature 25 25 Illinois Illinois Indiana Indiana 15 Change In Yield (bu./acre) 15 Iowa Change In Yield (bu./acre) Iowa 5 5 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 -5 -5 -15 -15 -25 -25 Departure From Average Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit) Departure From Average Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit) Sunday Sunday Monday Monday Tuesday Tuesday Wednesday Wednesday Thursday Thursday Friday Friday S S aturday aturday Sunday Sunday Monday Monday Tuesday Tuesday Wednesday Wednesday Thursday Thursday Friday Friday S S aturday aturday 1 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 10 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 5

Are Trend Yields Increasing Faster at the State Level? 180 Illinois 160 Indiana Iowa 140 Yield (bu./acre) 120 1960-1995 1996-2006 100 Illinois: +1.8 bu./yr. +1.9 bu./yr. Indiana: +1.8 bu./yr. +1.8 bu./yr. 80 Iowa: +1.9 bu./yr. +2.0 bu./yr. 60 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 11 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it New Seed Technology 12 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 6

Key Illinois Weather Variables, 1960-2006 Total June-July Precipitation Average July-August Temperature 14 80 Average = 8.0" Temperature (degrees Farenheit) 12 78 Precipitation (inches) 10 Average = 74.2 o 76 8 74 6 72 4 2 70 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 13 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it Key Indiana Weather Variables, 1960-2006 Total June-July Precipitation Average July-August Temperature 14 79 Temperature (degrees Farenheit) 12 Average = 8.4" 77 Precipitation (inches) 10 75 Average = 73.2 o 8 73 6 71 4 2 69 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 14 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 7

Key Iow a Weather Variables, 1960-2006 Total June-July Precipitation Average July-August Temperature 20 80 18 Temperature (degrees Farenheit) 78 16 Precipitation (inches) 76 14 Average = 72.9 o Average = 8.8" 12 74 10 72 8 70 6 68 4 2 66 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 15 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it Have We Been Here Before? The United States had so little variability in weather and grain production in the past two decades (until 1974) that an attitude of complacency had developed. There was frequent reference in the early 1970’s to the fact that technology had advanced to such a level that weather was no longer a significant factor in grain production. ---L. Thompson, Iowa State, 1975 16 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 8

Alternative Trend Yield Projections to 2030 for Illinois Corn Yields 1940-1959: 1960-2006: 2007-2030 350 +1 bu./yr. +1.7 bu./yr. 300 +6 250 Yield (bu./acre) +3 200 +1.7 150 100 50 0 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 17 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 9