14.54 International Trade Lecture 19: Increasing Returns (III) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

14.54 International Trade — Lecture 19: Increasing Returns (III) — Dumping and External Economies of Scale 14.54 Week 12 Fall 2016 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 1 / 22

Today’s Plan Dumping 1 External Economies of Scale 2 Graphs on slides 7, 15, 17, 19, and 21 are courtesy of Marc Melitz. Used with permission. 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 2 / 22

1. Dumping 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 3 / 22

Explaining “Dumping” Definition of dumping: When an exporting firm sets an export price below its domestic market price plus all per-unit trade costs It is an example of price discrimination: charging different customers different prices Dumping requires two conditions: Imperfect competition 1 Market segmentation 2 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 4 / 22

What is the Rationale for Dumping? Suppose a firm perceives a different demand function when selling domestically and internationally transportation costs and “home bias” imply that domestic firms usually have a larger share of domestic than foreign markets Suppose that a larger market share is associated with a demand function that is less responsive to price changes Then firms will have lower markups and so lower prices in foreign market 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 5 / 22

Market Shares in the Car Industry Courtesy of Kerem Coşar, Paul L. E. Grieco, Shengyu Li and Felix Tintelnot. Used with permission. 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 6 / 22

What is the Rationale for Dumping? (Cont.) All firms will practice dumping, even though there are no strategic interactions! Also, recall that when all firms have the same technology, then the markup p − c is given by 1 / ( bN ) So increases in the number of firms selling in a market will lower all markups in that market (this remains true when there are technology differences across firms) Thus, all firms will have a further incentive to lower markups when selling in large export markets (with many more competing firms) 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 7 / 22

U.S. Anti-Dumping Laws Dumping is widely regarded as unfair (same as price discrimination in domestic markets) US firms may appeal to the Commerce Department to investigate if dumping by foreigners has injured the US firm If evidence of dumping is found, then an “anti-dumping duty”, or tax is imposed on the price of the imported good (93% of cases) Tax equals the difference between the actual and “fair” (or domestic) price of imports. The average duty imposed is 57% Next the International Trade Commission (ITC) determines if injury to the US firm has actually occurred (or is likely to occur) If the ITC determines that injury has occurred (or is likely to occur), the anti-dumping duty remains in place (50% of cases) 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 8 / 22

History of Anti-Dumping Anti-Dumping originated in the U.S. and Canada around 1900 Included in GATT 1947 at insistence of the U.S. Few cases filed before 1980 Tokyo Round IN 1979 weakened substantially the criteria More than 1600 cases filed in 1980s 99% by US, EU, Australia and Canada Recently a lot of them against China 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 9 / 22

Anti-Dumping Duties Imposed by Developed Countries Courtesy of Chad P. Brown. License CC BY 3.0 IGO. 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 10 / 22

Anti-Dumping Duties Imposed by Developing Countries Courtesy of Chad P. Brown. License CC BY 3.0 IGO. 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 11 / 22

Reciprocal Dumping Consider an industry where there is a monopolist in each of two countries The two monopolists produce the same homogenous good Is trade integration good? The situation shifts from a monopoly to a duopoly, so social welfare generally goes up Pro-competitive effect of trade Notice also that if markets are segmented, the two monopolists will sell in both markets Intra-industry trade in identical goods! 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 12 / 22

Reciprocal Dumping (Cont.) Consider now the case in which trade entails transport costs It can still be the case that the two monopolists may find it optimal to sell in both markets But now the cross-hauling in identical goods entails a waste It is no longer clear that trade is welfare-improving Also, each monopolist will have a larger market share in their domestic market Hence, as long as demand is more elastic (higher b ) when market shares are lower, we will have reciprocal dumping Brander-Krugman (1983): reciprocal dumping can be welfare-reducing 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 13 / 22

2. External Economies of Scale 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 14 / 22

External Economies of Scale External Economies of Scale Up to now, we have discussed internal economies of scale Average costs are decreasing in firm’s output External economies of scale are different (c.f. Marshall) Average costs are decreasing in the output of other firms in the industry or in the economy If external economies exist, a country that has a large industry will have low costs of producing that industry’s good or service 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 15 / 22

External Economies of Scale External economies may exist for several reasons: 1 Specialized equipment or services may be needed for the industry, but are only supplied by other firms if the industry is large and concentrated (e.g., Silicon Valley) 2 Labor pooling : a large and concentrated industry may attract a pool of workers, reducing labor search and hiring costs for all firms in the industry 3 Knowledge spillovers : a large and concentrated industry may facilitate the sharing of productive ideas between workers in different firms 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 16 / 22

Possibility of Inefficient Specialization If external economies exist, pattern of trade may be due to historical accidents Average cost in country 2 is lower for a common quantity produced Why is this not a problem for internal economies of scale? 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 17 / 22

Welfare Effects of Trade Trade based on external economies has an ambiguous effect on national welfare There may be gains to the world economy by concentrating production of industries with external economies But where does production concentrate? It may seem optimal to concentrate it in the larger countries But as the example above illustrated, there is no guarantee this will happen As a result, it can be shown that some countries might be worse off with international trade than without it (Graham, 1928) Example: a large country that ends up specialized in an industry with no external economies of scale 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 18 / 22

Possibility of Losses from Trade Without trade, country 2 would consume good at a lower price 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 19 / 22

Dynamic External Economies of Scale We have considered cases where external economies depend on the amount of current output at a point in time Dynamic external economies of scale (dynamic IRS) exist if average costs fall as cumulative output increases over time Think about a process of accumulation of knowledge or experience A graphical representation of dynamic increasing returns to scale is called a learning curve Specially important in some high-tech industries, such as aeronautics 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 20 / 22

Dynamic External Economies of Scale (Cont.) Dynamic external IRS have same implications as static external IRS History may matter Protectionism may be justified Related to “infant-industry” argument for protection Key issues: which industries should be protected and for how long? 14.54 (Week 12) Increasing Returns (III) Fall 2016 21 / 22

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