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[04.06] Data and metadata requirements for explaining variations in results between 2005 and 2011 The 7 th Regional Coordinators Meeting September 19 - 21, 2012 Washington, DC Data and metadata requirements for explaining variations in results

  1. [04.06] Data and metadata requirements for explaining variations in results between 2005 and 2011 The 7 th Regional Coordinators Meeting September 19 - 21, 2012 Washington, DC

  2. Data and metadata requirements for explaining variations in results between 2005 and 2011  Survey Framework  Quality Assurance Framework  National Accounts Revisions 2

  3. ICP Survey Framework Questionnaire  Demand from Executive Board for more metadata on Demand- geographical coverage driven  Demand from TAG for systematic recording of country coverage, especially urban/rural  Demand from users of PPP data for better metadata to accompany data releases  Collect information on the Main Price Survey framework including population by region, outlets selected, product items Objectives priced, and data collection periods.  Examine exhaustiveness and reliability of collected price data.  Use information in reviewing the quality of the survey as well as for data validation and computation purposes.   Example Country name and  comments Annex 1 Structure   A. Population Annex 2   B. Outlets selected Annex 3  C. Items priced  D. Collection periods 3

  4. ICP Quality Assurance Checklists  A framework for assessing the quality of the ICP. ICP Quality Assurance Framework  This framework will constitute a structured tool to Objectives evaluate the quality of: ICP processes in ICP data, including countries, regional input data, intermediary offices, and Global data and output data Office  A set of questionnaires to help collect the information ICP-QAF checklists required to evaluate the ICP based on the ICP-QAF framework.  Three sets of questionnaires:  National implementing agency  Regional coordinating agency  ICP Global Office 4

  5. ICP Quality Assurance Checklists  Prerequisites of quality: review of the legal and institutional environment Structure  Integrity  Methodological soundness Five dimensions  Accuracy and reliability of quality  Serviceability  Accessibility  Simplified automated format Format  Instructions page  Available in 4 languages: English, French, Spanish, and Arabic 5

  6. National Accounts Revision : Objective  To show how many ICP 2005 countries have revised their 2005 GDP data since publishing ICP 2005  To show whether the changes are significant  To show possible reasons for the revision  To show how these 2005 revisions are important for interpreting 2011 results  To conclude with any suggestions/ discussion points Data used : 2005 ICP published GDP, Most updated UNSD 2005 GDP For 146 ICP 2005 Economies 6

  7. Revision Status (Changes in % ) Negative Positive Total More than 20% 6 6 12 Between 10% and 20% 0 9 9 Between 5% and 10% 7 16 23 Between 2% and 5% 9 12 21 Between 0.1% and 2% 16 30 46 Between 0 and 0.1% 15 17 32 0.0% 3 3 Total 53 90 146 7

  8. 35 Significant Changes 30 Number of Countries 25 20 Negative Positive 15 Zero 10 5 0 More 10% & 5% & 10% 2% & 5% 0.1% & 2% 0& 0.1% Zero than 20% 20% 8

  9. Main observations and possible reasons  Revised National Accounts Data Significant  Revised SNA 68 -> SNA 93 1 number of  Revised Base Year revisions  Currency Changes  When revising, normally inclusiveness is expanded to add More upward factors that were not observed initially 2 revisions  Initially estimated lower due to lack of data or capacity  Most likely due to currency changes Few downward 3  Initially estimated higher, due to using “good economic year” revisions as base year  No Revision Zero or Very small 4  No improvements in National Accounts procedure revisions  Lack of statistical capacity Need to consult National Accountants of each country 9

  10. Number of countries with 3 or 4 Quintile Shifts * OECD- LAC WA Africa CIS Asia No. BHs Eurostat 5 8 9 52 20 46 0 - 4 11 1 2 20 0 1 5 - 9 13 14 3 21 2 2 10 - 14 12 3 2 4 2 3 15 - 19 9 0 1 1 0 1 20 - 29 6 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 30 =< There are other factors affecting the shifts * Between 2005 and LYA 10

  11. Conclusions/ issues to discuss  Critical to publish updated ICP 2005 results  Simple Economic Change  Revisions of methodology  Other  Possible steps for updating 2005 PPPs  Obtain revised 2005 National Accounts data from countries  Use revised 2005 Expenditure Data and ICP 2011 methodology to compute Final 2005 PPPs  Issues  Which level of revised expenditure data to ask for countries? (GDP/ Aggregates/BHs)  Use of other International Database  Timeline / coordination 11

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